The templateblog: No problem.

you know what is the best feature in this board ?

this is the only place I have seen where people don't flame each other. real cooperative spirit. Karl has indeed done some thing great in creating it and policing it.

Thanks Gen, for all the information and explanations!

I am not a trader. I found Ticker was one of the best resources for educating myself on our current economic reality. I decided it was important for me to demonstrate my appreciation for Gen's efforts by joining. This has been one of the best investments I have made. I appreciate all the contributions of members and the sense of humor and perspective.

As dire as our economic situation appears, there is some small comfort having the edge of the the cliff pointed out and going over en masse!

So, um, are we officially calling off the Bear Rally we talked about yesterday?


Wonder if I can get a job sweeping floors at Goldman, no doubt they'll still be around

Dylan Radigan just read a letter at the top of the hour talking about the idea that capitalism cannot work as long as fraud is allowed.

>>those indicators are painting a picture of the Apocalypse that I simply can't believe, and they're showing it as an imminent event...

Karl -- Would you mind listing which indicators?


--Johnathan

johnathanstein...how bout this? http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGS....

Sure it looks bad, but from many previous tickers, you wanted these financials to start coming clean. Well, since they didn't or were advised they couldn't and turn into instant zeros, the market is doing it for them.
What the **** can be done? We knew GM was sucking ass, with a mere 36 billion in writedowns and a share price of $20 plus.
It's either you print more bailout cash, borrow more against the Gov, or let the market price reflect the appropriate value.
They used the useless bailouts to buy some time. Maybe time's up.

Ruff, the point is that the attacks are being launched against EVERYONE now.

If you want the entirety of our economy and markets to disintegrate, then this is just fine. If not, you're an ******* for suggesting that this is the right path.

GM would be bankrupt even if the Dow were at 15,000. The "crisis" has surreptitiously given the drowning company more billions to pull under with them.

GM would be (and has been) bankrupt by **GE** is not and has not been.

I felt that way over here.

When protests like THIS:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/06/us/06m....

...get huge turnouts and TF FedUpUsa protests get 30 people, you know we still have more pain to come. I'm doing my best to get people to show up in NY next week but it's slow going. Ban gay marriage? Instant turnout. People are still so far from 'getting it'.

You need a bigger asteroid in that video.

OK two questions

1. How much do you need to donate to get a gold star?

2. I have a 401k with less than $25K in it. At what point does it make sense to pull it as cash and take the 10% plus tax hit on it and keep it as cash in the bank?

>> Luke: Make sure you include the two GE Tickers.

Gen, I posted the GE tickers to another board and someone asked me to name a company that had already been BK'd using the CDS strategy outlined therein. What is an example?

"Ruff, the point is that the attacks are being launched against EVERYONE now."

The media, the corp CEO's, the Gubbermint and a few million other ****tards have been lying, cheatin and stealin for too long. There is no trust, thus no confidence. Madoff types create fake paper wealth and we are now in a the wake up phase of a harsh reality.
GE capital would not be attacked for no reason. They ****ed up like GM and the market is going to cream them.
I'm not being an ******* suggesting any path, except for some justice and truth. This case being, the truth is a hard pill to swallow.
The capital markets are filled with over leveraged **** capital. The 401K holders were told that blah blah ****ing blah that the market averages 10% a year over time blah blah ****ing con game bull****. unsustainable truths which have been ignored for too many years.

K.D. this article answers your question about whether the Bezzle will be exposed.

Quote:

Now Treasury is committed, the leadership in this area will not deviate from a pro-insider policy for large banks; they are not interested in alternative approaches (I’ve asked). The result will be further destruction of the private credit system and more recourse to relatively nontransparent actions by the Federal Reserve, with all the risks that entails.

The road to economic hell is paved with good intentions and bad banks.

http://baselinescenario.com/2009/03/05/c....

Quote:

Confusion, Tunneling, And Looting

Emerging market crises are marked by an increase in tunneling - i.e., borderline legal/illegal smuggling of value out of businesses. As time horizons become shorter, employees have less incentive to protect shareholder value and are more inclined to help out friends or prepare a soft exit for themselves.

Boris Fyodorov, the late Russian Minister of Finance who struggled for many years against corruption and the abuse of authority, could be blunt. Confusion helps the powerful, he argued. When there are complicated government bailout schemes, multiple exchange rates, or high inflation, it is very hard to keep track of market prices and to protect the value of firms. The result, if taken to an extreme, is looting: the collapse of banks, industrial firms, and other entities because the insiders take the money (or other valuables) and run.

This is the prospect now faced by the United States.

Treasury has made it clear that they will proceed with a “mix-and-match” strategy, as advertised. And people close to the Administration tell me things along the lines of ”it will be messy” and “there is no alternative.” The people involved are convinced - and hold this almost as an unshakable ideology - that this is the only way to bring private capital into banks.

This attempt to protect shareholders and insiders in large banks is misguided. Not only have these shareholders already been almost completely wiped out by the actions and inactions of the executives and boards in these banks (why haven’t these boards resigned?), but the government’s policy is creating toxic financial institutions that no one wants to touch either with equity investments or - increasingly - further credit.

Policy confusion is rampant. Did the government effectively sort-of nationalize Citigroup last Thursday when it said Vikram Pandit will stay on as CEO? If that wasn’t a nationalization moment (i.e., an assertion that the government is now the dominant shareholder), what legal authority does the Treasury have to decide who is and is not running a private company?

Will debt holders be forced to take losses and, if so, how much and for whom? As part of last week’s Citigroup deal, preferred shareholders - whose claims had debt-like characteristics - were pressed into converting to common stock. You may or may not like forced debt-for-equity swaps, but be aware of what the prospect of these will do to the credit market. Junior subordinated Citigroup debt (securities underlying enhanced trust preferred shares) were yesterday yielding 26%.

Who can explain exactly how AIG has lost so much money? Drip-drip injections of government money are not a proper clean-up; there has been no complete recognition of losses and, almost six months later, that company still cannot move on. Time horizons presumably remain short or are getting shorter for all involved. This points to a bleak future more generally.

What do rapidly widening credit default spreads for nonbank financial entities (such as GE Capital and many insurance companies) signify? Is it something about expected behavior by the insiders or by government, or by some combination of both?

Confusion in policy breeds disorder in companies, and disorder leads to the loss of value. This is the reality of severe crises wherever they unfold; we have not yet reached the worst moment. And, of course, there are many more shocks heading our way - mostly from Europe, but also potentially from Asia.

The course of policy is set. For at least the next 18 months, we know what to expect on the banking front. Now Treasury is committed, the leadership in this area will not deviate from a pro-insider policy for large banks; they are not interested in alternative approaches (I’ve asked). The result will be further destruction of the private credit system and more recourse to relatively nontransparent actions by the Federal Reserve, with all the risks that entails.

The road to economic hell is paved with good intentions and bad banks.

Written by Simon Johnson March 5, 2009 at 5:12 am

"10% plus tax hit"

It's a 10% *penalty*, then you pay taxes on what's left at whatever your tax bracket is.

Ruff, I read your explanation. I don't think you're an *******. But I'm an ******* so I'm not sure my opinion matters.

Unless you ****ing know what you do, and you do it yourself, the stock market is not a place to put your retirement money. Period.
That is what experience, history and logic says. If you go against those things you get what is happening now.
We have now a whole generation screwed up because of that (boomers), probably the only way other generations will learn. And it is going down along the “financial industry” they made possible.
The stock market and the housing market are just going where historically they should be. But not before going way lower than those average historic levels. Just that. Not because it is a painful awaking it is not to be rational or just what it should happen.
I’m sure America can get over it. But it will be difficult and painful.

@Bentick - Thats what I meant to write.

Quote:

The equity markets will be sacrificed in an attempt to keep the Treasury market from imploding.

It's about time people figured out what the equity markets are really about in the capitalist system, now that we've basically already destroyed it with lies.

Jesus I am now sufficiently scared. There goes another $500 on rice, beans and formula.

Quote:

Jesus I am now sufficiently scared. There goes another $500 on rice, beans and formula.

Hey Ravenly just go easy on the beans, if ya know what I mean!!!!

The Bezel IS the system. If we had complete 100% transparency for every company tomorrow, the market would explode quite spectacularly. A vast amount of corporate 'earnings' are based on the largest financial credit/debt bubble in human history ('82-'07). There is no there there. 20%+ of the S&P would be marked-to-bankrupt the next day. The .gov knows this, which is exactly why we aren't going to get any transparency just like we aren't going to get any in the EU either until they go BOOM. I'm sorry but there is no way out of this without significant pain and the inevitable default of most pensions, social security, medicare and such other completely unfundable liabilities. Jesus, these things weren't even fundable DURING the largest debt bubble in history. Certainly not after.