"...the economic meltdown is merely a means to an end. It is being done deliberately, they say, at the very highest levels to achieve a well-planned outcome. What outcome is that? Global rule over all banking, of course." http://www.infowars.com/why-the-economic....

Not to mock, because I don't know who's right or wrong, but yesterday and what looks like today is not living up to the prediction.

I expected some sort of follow-up on this. If you come out and say the end is near, any hour now, and then it doesn't happen, don't you need to explain how you were wrong? Otherwise you just lose reliability.

Jump in feet first, Alchemista2.

Go all in long and use margin.

I double dare ya.

****wit.

Alchemista: Nothing moves in a straight line in the markets. If you bet it's going to go straight up OR straight down, you're gonna get screwed at some point.

Look at a chart man, even the GD drop was FAR from straight down.

I'm not saying that the market's going up or down (I said i don't know who's right).

What I'm commenting on is the fact that Karl's post was calling for imminent collapse (he even said it may happen that same day last week). That obviously has now been proven false.

I'm wondering what his follow-up is to the post. Why does he think it was wrong and how has the outlook changed (e.g. still thinking a collapse is coming but now in several days rather than in hours, luck prevented us from collapse, some major change prevented the imminent collapse, etc)?

>Pulls up lawn chair, and fires up the BBQ. Beer anyone?<

Maybe another way to look at this is - how many times can the market rev the engine, put on its Thelma and Louise pose, then come screeching to a stop a foot from the edge of the Grand Canyon?

I think it has happened twice already.

At some point, we're going over.

Lugnut..Uh...Miller Lite Please.


Mo:

Guys, I think Alchemista asks a fair question. Ya gotta admit: this particular Ticker was a doozy. Scared the hell out of a lot of people, including me. I even made the mistake of passing it along to my still-skeptical missus; something I rarely do. As a result, she is now even more certain that her beloved, adorable husband is bat**** crazy. That is no one's fault but mine, but in my case, this seriously limits my ability to act now to protect our family from the circumstances Karl warned of.

I still think this Ticker scenario is probable within an indeterminent timeframe, but I would caution everyone, (including our gracious host), that one of the many ways to be wrong is to be right too soon. TF has a vastly larger readership these days, and IMHO, admitting an occasional misinterpretation of insanely complex technical indicators (if that's what happened here), does not undermine credibility- it creates it.

Having said that, the market situation reminds me be a bit of meterology in an age of Climate Change. (Not opening that discussion here: just stipulate it for a sec.) Weather forecasting based on long years of careful observation is fine so long as the fundamental assumptions don't change. When they do, predictions can become wobbly. When the global market are in such an extreme situation as now, it doesn't surprise me if technical analysis becomes a challenge.

Just my .02

That's it in a nutshell, Mo.

Anyone who fails to understand Mo's simple and VERT APT analogy needs to lurk alot more and post ALOT less.

I think it's silly to chide Karl on crash-calls when he's proven himself right on one "Big One" already.

Quote:

When the global market are in such an extreme situation as now, it doesn't surprise me if technical analysis becomes a challenge.

If anything, it's been the rally calls which have been a little optimistic, not the dives. Don't be surprised if the one ongoing now doesn't also abort shy of technical targets.

This was indeed a sensational Ticker, and scared the **** out of most of us. I believe KD was doing to things with this ticker:

1. Reporting what his own indicators were telling him at that time
2. Trying to paint a picture of just how bad things can get if we don't force "the bezzle" out of the system.

#2 has NOT been solved and we're going to find ourselves staring back over the pit soon enough. Be glad we got a reprieve. Personally I'm willing to wager that KD was more scared writing that than we were reading it.

If you don't like his calls feel free to:

-Start your own blog
-Start your own forum
-Devlop your own set of proprietary indicators
-Get the "big picture" right consistently for a couple of years

Once you've got the above done, feel free to let us know when the crash is coming...we're all ears.

Oh, and +1 to Alahna.

The point of my question and Bucks isn't to ding Karl (I started out by saying I'm not mocking anything). I'm glad the opinion was shared.

I'd just like to hear what the author's response is to his own mistake. Does he think it's an issue of timing (i.e. still a big crash coming, just not as imminent as he thought), or does he think the big crash is no longer coming since it didn't happen as soon as he thought?

Nobody's perfect, and we're all better off if we can admit a mistake and determine what was in error. That's all I'm wondering. I sure as heck don't know how to predict what's going to happen.

I like Mo's analogy, too, up to a point, but I'd add a twist: your kids are in the back seat and every time I stand and yell that "this is it, they're goin over!", and it doesn't happen, the less likely it is that people will listen to me and rescue the kids.

I know the situation is almost a no-win, and KD has been warning about this longer than most. I just don't want newer readers to lump him in with all the other pereptual doomers on the Net.

It's our responsibility to trade our own money. The markets tanked ****ing hard shortly after this ticker.

I got greedy and didn't take profits, but that's because my target price was too ambitious. Oh, well, back to Jesus I come.

I still have armageddon puts, and we're still in ****, but things have changed: we're getting primed for a global liquidity pump. I covered all my puts except for the real dogs (WYNN, MAC), although I still have two naked calls on weak stocks that'll get ****ed up in the long term anyway, and I can eat the margin.

KD has always, ALWAYS warned us of a bull-dick.

Well personally, I didn't read into what was said as a "This is going to happen right now".

I read Gen as saying "This is how things are, and the risks are extreme". In other words, he was correctly describing 'the horrendous environment' that had appeared.

I honestly don't think it is possible to deny that environments existance?

Therefore the message and the messenger, are both correct.

Much, as always, depends on how we individually interpret the message.

Alchemista2 said
"I'd just like to hear what the author's response is to his own mistake. "

The word mistake is inappropriate. Listen, learn and make your own decisions - never reapproach - its offensive

Ribbit, I agree that the reader's mindset can affect interpretation, but when Gen starts the Ticker with this paragraph, and ends it with a video of the cometary destruction of NYC, I think it's easy to see how many of the huge readership of this piece might become acutely alarmed:

Quote:

Just so you have a short list of what's at stake if Washington DC doesn't change policy here and now (which means before the collapse in equities comes, which could start as soon as today, if the indicators I watch have any validity at all. For what its worth, those indicators are painting a picture of the Apocalypse that I simply can't believe, and they're showing it as an imminent event - like perhaps today imminent.)

Look: No one is slammimg Gen here. His foresight and analysis have saved my family's financial ass, and I am deeply in his debt. He has been almost completely spot on about this crisis so far, and I'm afraid that he is probably right about the nightmare described in this Ticker, too.

He is doing the right thing by trying to warn people about what he considers imminent events, and while I hope he won't stop offering his advice, I also hope he doesn't lose a larger audience by trying to call the date and time too precisely. Nobody can, and like anyone he needs to stay credible to remain effective. That's why I thought Alchemista asked a fair question.

It's an awful balancing act and the stress of all this must be unbelievable. I wouldn't be able to do it.

i miss the old days of crisis when a trusted employee would phone and ask "please say it". i would repeat the magic phrase "don't panic" and that would be enough.

of course, that firm went bankrupt.

i picture thelma and louise, but with wile coyote driving...

Gen has been dead accurate in his long-term forecasts (8-12 months, if it all doesn't fall apart sooner.) But in the short-term, he's been off. He didn't expect the market to fall apart as bad as it has since the inauguration, and imho, he's been trying to chart a market that really isn't chartable.

Alchemista2, We got a big bounce on the C news with no follow through, which still leaves the basic gist of this Ticker in play. I, for one, hope Gen is wrong but I'm still a bit nervous because coiled springs cut both ways. Even if we dodge the immediate bullet, IMO we're going to flush hard eventually, perhaps this fall, maybe sooner. Short of the delusions of the most gullible amongst us this isn't going to end well. Twenty five years of parting like there's no tomorrow is going to exact more than a two year hangover. Much more.

Alchemista2 said:

Quote:

...blah, blah, blah...mistake...blah, blah, blah...mistake...

You STILL don't get it?

You really are a ****wit.

Do yourself a favor:

Lurk more, post less.

I think that people who are incapable of reading for content will have trouble with negotiating their life - including but not limited to investments.

After reading that ticker I doubled by efforts to drain my account into a tin can in my back yard. I called my parents and feared them. Everyone thinks I'm crazy, but it's a qualified crazy because I've been right so far. Calling Doomsday takes me to another level of kook.

At work (Woman owner and woman president) they asked me when I was moving back to California. I said the reason I moved hasn't happened yet but when it does and property prices crash, I will. "What reason" they asked, "Economic Collapse", they just sighed very hard and ran out of the room laughing.

However, I think the stock market is irrelevant, it's just a casino that runs on the general economic news. The credit market is the real world and that's looking worse than ever so I'm still convinced that ticker is accurate.

Boz: Correct. I referenced this in the Ticker this morning, and why.

The stock market can (and often is) irrational over short periods of time.

The credit market is RARELY wrong.