What's Dead (Short Answer: All Of It)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2009-03-05 10:57
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
What's Dead (Short Answer: All Of It)
 

Just so you have a short list of what's at stake if Washington DC doesn't change policy here and now (which means before the collapse in equities comes, which could start as soon as today, if the indicators I watch have any validity at all.  For what its worth, those indicators are painting a picture of the Apocalypse that I simply can't believe, and they're showing it as an imminent event - like perhaps today imminent.)

  • All pension funds, private and public, are done.  If you are receiving one, you won't be.  If you think you will in the future, you won't be.  PBGC will fail as well.  Pension funds will be forced to start eating their "seed corn" within the next 12 months and once that begins there is no way to recover.
  • All annuities will be defaulted to the state insurance protection (if any) on them.  The state insurance funds will be bankrupted and unable to be replenished.  Essentially, all annuities are toast.  Expect zero, be ecstatic if you do better.  All insurance companies with material exposure to these obligations will go bankrupt, without exception.  Some of these firms are dangerously close to this happening right here and now; the rest will die within the next 6-12 months.  If you have other insured interests with these firms, be prepared to pay a LOT more with a new company that can't earn anything off investments, and if you have a claim in process at the time it happens, it won't get paid.  The probability of you getting "boned" on any transaction with an insurance company is extremely high - I rate this risk in excess of 90%.
  • The FDIC will be unable to cover bank failure obligations.  They will attempt to do more of what they're doing now (raising insurance rates and doing special assessments) but will fail; the current path has no chance of success.  Congress will backstop them (because they must lest shotguns come out) with disastrous results.  In short, FDIC backstops will take precedence even over Social Security and Medicare.
  • Government debt costs will ramp.  This warning has already been issued and is being ignored by President Obama.    When (not if) it happens debt-based Federal Funding will disappear.  This leads to....
  • Tax receipts are cratering and will continue to.  I expect total tax receipts to fall to under $1 trillion within the next 12 months.  Combined with the impossibility of continued debt issue (rollover will only remain possible at the short duration Treasury has committed to over the last ten years if they cease new issue) a 66% cut in the Federal Budget will become necessary.  This will require a complete repudiation of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, a 50% cut in the military budget and a 50% across-the-board cut in all other federal programs.  That will likely get close.
  • Tax-deferred accounts will be seized to fund rollovers of Treasury debt at essentially zero coupon (interest).  If you have a 401k, or what's left of it, or an IRA, consider it locked up in Treasuries; it's not yours any more.  Count on this happening - it is essentially a certainty.
  • Any firm with debt outstanding is currently presumed dead as the street presumption is that they have lied in some way.  Expect at least 20% of the S&P 500 to fail within 12 months as a consequence of the complete and total lockup of all credit markets which The Fed will be unable to unlock or backstop.  This will in turn lead to....
  • The unemployed will have 5-10 million in direct layoffs added within the next 12 months.  Collateral damage (suppliers, customers, etc) will add at least another 5-10 million workers to that, perhaps double that many.  U-3 (official unemployment rate) will go beyond 15%, U-6 (broad form) will reach 30%. 
  • Civil unrest will break out before the end of the year.  The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it.  They won't be able to.  Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone.  If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go "feral"; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get.

The good news is that this process will clear The Bezzle out of the system.

The bad news is that you won't have a job, pension, annuity, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and, quite possibly, your life.

It really is that bleak folks, and it all goes back to Washington DC being unwilling to lock up the crooks, putting the market in the role it has always played - that of truth-finder, no matter how destructive that process is.

Only immediate action from Washington DC, taking the market's place, can stop this, and as I get ready to hit "send" I see the market rolling over again, now down more than 3% and flashing "crash imminent" warnings.  You may be reading this too late for it to matter.

In 3 minutes, what's coming.....

 

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media or for commercial use.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 16  First123456789Last
User Info What's Dead (Short Answer: All Of It) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Randy123
Posts: 5785
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Upping my Prozac Dose today.

----------
China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Ursus-horribilis
Posts: 828
Incept: 2008-03-16
Green
Carmel, CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
My gawd Karl. I *HATE* it when you're right!

----------
"There is a lot of support at zero." - Art Cashin
Captbill
Posts: 842
Incept: 2008-07-22
Gold A True American Patriot!
Arizona's West Shore
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
How do you do those so fast! Thanks for keeping us informed. Fair Winds and Following Seas...

As others have said, your Tickers are going to be in the History Books for generations...hope you have Hard Copies.

Bill

----------
Incredible. There's Smith and he's standing there and he's got the iceberg warning in his ****ing hand, excuse me, his hand, and he's ordering more speed. Lewis Bodine, RMS Titanic
Stonedog
Posts: 2080
Incept: 2008-05-29
Green A True American Patriot!
New Jersey
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
No wonder why you changed your avatar earlier today...all of the sudden I feel the need to buy another month of canned food, water, etc. and some more knives, samurai swords and other assorted weapons.

----------
"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit
Early_retirement
Posts: 3619
Incept: 2007-06-26
Gold
Burlington, Vermont
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Karl...was wondering about IRA's for a while since it's where the majority of my assets lie. Would you take the tax penalty to avoid the chance it'll get seized in the near future?

----------
"You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else."
Fidgit
Posts: 17784
Incept: 2008-02-18
Green
Tax Unit #1,384,923,781
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Okay. *deep breath* Guess it's time to start boxing up all the worst-case "stuff" I've amassed, in case the bug-out scenario happens sooner rather than later...
Genesis
Posts: 130779
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
We're done guys.

Have a look at the XLF and rest of the financials.

The market is going to disassemble every company in the S&P 500, one at a time.

Government isn't going to force the truth, therefore, government will go down the hole when their funding capacity is cut off, and it will be.

This is a binary event - either they cut this out before the backstop demands all collapse on top of them at once, or they die with it.

We're done guys. I wish it wasn't true, but it is. The people who can fix it won't fix it, and we as a people are still playing "happy face", and will continue to as a society until it is too late to fix it.

There are no mustard seeds, just nuclear explosions.


----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Caddis
Posts: 376
Incept: 2007-11-08
Gold A True American Patriot!
In a hand basket
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Dang Gen. I don't drink, but I may have to start.

----------

Randy123
Posts: 5785
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Karl, you need to have more faith in TurboTimmy.

----------
China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Mezzmor
Posts: 1175
Incept: 2008-10-09
Green A True American Patriot!
Off the grid
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
This is looking horrible. VIX popping big, C just became a penny stock, JPM looks ****ed. The end is nigh.

----------
Once the "Progressive" and the "educated" have completely destroyed the country, the logical, the wise, and the experienced will rebuild it.
Genesis
Posts: 130779
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Its over folks.

The fuse has been lit. We are on the edge of a total equity and credit market collapse. It WILL happen unless something comes out of DC imminently.

Once the damage is done to those pension funds and insurance companies and they are forced to start eating their seed corn there is no way to fix it. We're talking about the underpinning of the social safety net, and government WILL be forced to divert to the FDIC, which along with Treasury rates going to the moon will instnatly shutdown all entitlement spending including Social Security and Medicare.

We are within days of this becoming an inevitable outcome.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
1lumpsum
Posts: 2292
Incept: 2008-02-01
Green

Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Obama says "Generational buy!"

Just kidding, we crossed the event horizon long ago.

Truthseeker
Posts: 8479
Incept: 2007-10-07
Silver A True American Patriot!
NorCal
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Exactly. What a shame.

----------
"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Caddis
Posts: 376
Incept: 2007-11-08
Gold A True American Patriot!
In a hand basket
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
My wife works for Met Life. Does anyone know what kind of exposure they have and how it might affect them?

----------

Bluebird
Posts: 1381
Incept: 2008-05-02
Silver
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Genesis said "Tax-deferred accounts will be seized to fund rollovers of Treasury debt at essentially zero coupon (interest). If you have a 401k, or what's left of it, or an IRA, consider it locked up in Treasuries; it's not yours any more. Count on this happening - it is essentially a certainty."

I assume we can still withdraw our IRA funds, pay the taxes, and the resulting cash is mine? (No penalty, older than 59 1/2)

And FDIC savings accounts will be 'saved' before Social Security?

wow
Stonedog
Posts: 2080
Incept: 2008-05-29
Green A True American Patriot!
New Jersey
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Only thing coming out of DC is hot air and the spending of more borrow $$$...not solutions to this...

----------
"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit
Raster
Posts: 2164
Incept: 2007-08-16
Green
Rar!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Hey KD - Is it really Photoguy bad this time?

----------
"Bah something 'sploded"
- King Karl, Circa November 8, 2010 CE
1lumpsum
Posts: 2292
Incept: 2008-02-01
Green

Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Caddis...it's ALL DONE! Civil unrest, then Martial law and rationing coming within 18 months.

Aac123
Posts: 1534
Incept: 2007-09-23
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The message may be bleak but the messenger is something else - thanks KD

I never miss a Tick nor a Ticker - maybe I should

----------
Any one of us who doesn't have a healthy fear of the unknown isn't paying attention - Bank of America's Ken Lewis
Jinxx0r
Posts: 4233
Incept: 2007-08-10
Silver
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List


Quote:
"Profit-and-earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it. I think that consumer confidence, as they see the [stimulus deal] taking root, businesses are starting to see opportunities for investment and potential hiring," Mr. Obama said.
~~obamasiah, 2009

Genesis
Posts: 130779
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
No Bluebird.

The snake will do anything to avoid eating its own head, including eating you.

Forget it. If DC doesn't change direction NOW it simply isn't going to matter - within days. We are that close to going over the falls; once the pension funds and annuity companies start eating their seed corn (they may have already begun to do this, but are forced into it as the market continues to decline) the game is over; the outcome can no longer be changed.

It is like a nuclear explosion - once supercritical mass is achieved the picoseconds necessary for enough atoms to split for the energy release to be "noticed" is a finite amount of time, but there is nothing you can do to change the outcome.

We are very, very close to that supercritical event. A major equity market crash, which now looks nearly certain, goes far enough over the edge that nothing the government can do will matter.

Any insurance company that sells annuities (that would be all of them) is absolutely ****ed, without exception.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

1lumpsum
Posts: 2292
Incept: 2008-02-01
Green

Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Marxists don't need no stinking stock market.
Caddis
Posts: 376
Incept: 2007-11-08
Gold A True American Patriot!
In a hand basket
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
1lump

That's what I was afraid of!!

----------

Randy123
Posts: 5785
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Close the stock exchange for some time.

----------
China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 16  First123456789Last