| User Info
| VERDICT: No Confidence in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Aja
Posts: 2591
Incept: 2008-03-19
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Within DC ..... and also within NYC
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1lumpsum
Posts: 2292
Incept: 2008-02-01
Banned
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The Government and the heads of the major banks have lied so much for so long that nobody believes anything they say. At this point if the want the markets to shot to the moon they need to say "It's all screwed! Everyone of the major financials are bankrupt and we don't know what we could possible do to fix them." Then the markets would take off because nobody would believe them.
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Dashingdwl
Posts: 9764
Incept: 2007-06-26
los angeles
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Karl, as we've said before, the average guy doesn't get the math. Plus there is still too much optimism. Case in point is the $75B mortgage relief program that's going to save all the "responsible borrowers that got in trouble". No responsible borrower got in trouble, and besides what's $75B going to do to a $14T market? Nothing. You wouldn't know that reading the LA Times or Yahoo news this weekend.
There is too much debt outstanding that cannot be serviced. That's the math.
That debt must be defaulted on.
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When you are hard and disciplined, you can be principled. People fear you because they have no leverage against you. It's the truest form of Liberty.
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Genesis
Posts: 130807
Incept: 2007-06-26
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They'll "get it" when the entitlement checks STOP without warning, shortly followed by empty store shelves.
If they don't cut this **** out we're going to have a "vast and fast" crash in the markets which will coincide with a complete seizure in short-term funding markets and 20% of the S&P 500 will go bankrupt within a month.
Obama will get his "3-4 million jobs" over two years, but unfortunately 15 million people will LOSE JOBS as a consequence of those bankruptcies and the follow-on blowups of their vendors, distributors and retailers.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Phirang
Posts: 10157
Incept: 2008-10-25
Flogging a "little person"
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Hopefully all the leech****s then flee to FEMA camps, which can they be duly neutron-nuked from afar.
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I'm not special, and I am not likely to accomplish anything extraordinary in my life. If you are reading this comment, the case is most likely that neither will you. http://www.cracked.com/article_18544_how-the-karate-kid-ruined-modern-world.html
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Jotapay
Posts: 16734
Incept: 2008-08-26
Austin, Tx
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Quote:Hopefully all the leech****s then flee to FEMA camps, which can they be duly neutron-nuked from afar. I agree. As much as I hate the idea of 'Big Brother', I'm beginning to see a use for those camps authorized under HR 645. Cull the herd of these idiots. |
1lumpsum
Posts: 2292
Incept: 2008-02-01
Banned
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The FEMA camps may be for the elite to ride out the storm while J6P is on his own, Mad Max style.  |
Eli
Posts: 7215
Incept: 2007-09-10
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Karl what do think the chances are that they will wake up and do the right thing?
Obama, is surrounded with people who crashed the plane as Taleb would say, he has done nothing yet that says he gets it and understands it. His experts are the liars and criminals that got us here.
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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell
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Genesis
Posts: 130807
Incept: 2007-06-26
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At this point?
5%.
95% odds we're ****ed worse than The Depression.
25% odds we get Hitler.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Wcoeqpk862
Posts: 1746
Incept: 2009-02-17
San Francisco, California
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KD,
I like everyone else I believe on this board 'get it' (not extensively as you, but in overall terms). I also think the government 'doesn't get it' but even as critical of Obama as I am, I want to think their is someone in his administration that understands what your talking about. My question to you though Karl is who is that? Summers? It's not Obama I know that much.
Michael
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Genesis
Posts: 130807
Incept: 2007-06-26
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That would be a nice piece of hope WC.
I don't believe any of them in the Administration will admit it in public nor to Obama, as doing so requires that they admit they CAUSED this (Summers especially.)
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Xanares
Posts: 2595
Incept: 2008-11-10
Between Sicily and Tunisia
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25%?! Better go long brown cloth and black boots. Joking aside that is a high frigging number... care to elaborate? You talking US or anywhere?
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Blacknapkins
Posts: 409
Incept: 2008-10-28
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Great ticker as always. This is the finale i've been waiting for.
Isn't it a catch-22 type of situation though? FDIC seizes these banks, but doesn't have enough on it's balance sheet, so congress backstops them the ~1-3 Trillion.
Or we nationalize and there is still the ~1-3 Trillion on the banks sheets, that the government just overpaid for?
Either way aren't we looking at roughly the same scenario? Of course with the FDIC, they would liquidate all of their assets and the number of bad paper wouldn't be as scary, expect they would have to do this for a number of banks.
Am I getting this right that both Nationalization and FDIC intervention would both incur a large funding via deficit spending?
It seems like right now, without a real plan, we WILL get bank runs.
And it seems like this Admin. is doing everything wrong and true nationalization is still on the table, at least if you talk to Roubini.
Either way, it's bad news.
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Young new trader. Take anything I say with a grain of salt, and please don't hesitate to correct me. I'm here to learn, and hopefully make some money. :D
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Phirang
Posts: 10157
Incept: 2008-10-25
Flogging a "little person"
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Hitler in this country would be a nightmare. I really hope there's a military coup and we can to reset the system.
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I'm not special, and I am not likely to accomplish anything extraordinary in my life. If you are reading this comment, the case is most likely that neither will you. http://www.cracked.com/article_18544_how-the-karate-kid-ruined-modern-world.html
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Genesis
Posts: 130807
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Here.
A year ago I would have put the odds at less than 1%.
In September/October I would have put the odds at ~5%.
Today I put the odds at 25%.
If the market collapses we WILL (not might) have a Depression worse than the 1930s - FAR WORSE. The government WILL wind up attempting to double the national debt (accidentially or otherwise.)
The odds of that precipitating a downward spiral consisting of insane ramps in government funding costs which then lead to more borrowing which ultimately results in a sovereign default is about 25%.
If that circumstance occurs we will get Hitler. No ifs, ands or buts, because the existing government will disappear in a puff of smoke when it cannot manage to fund its operations, including the military.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Phirang
Posts: 10157
Incept: 2008-10-25
Flogging a "little person"
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What would happen to the national guard if .gov imploded?
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I'm not special, and I am not likely to accomplish anything extraordinary in my life. If you are reading this comment, the case is most likely that neither will you. http://www.cracked.com/article_18544_how-the-karate-kid-ruined-modern-world.html
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Fitz22
Posts: 190
Incept: 2008-12-05
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Understandable terms: Actual federal deficit somewhere between 50 and 100 trillion. Lets call it 75 trillion for fun.
Federal tax income in 2008: 2.5 trillion (There might be other revenue source -- I don't know.)
75 / 2.5 = 30 times more debt than income ~~ 30 times leverage
It's like making $25,000 per year, but need to pay off a $750,000 loan.
A 30 year loan at 5.00% costs $4,000 / month.
A 30 year loan at 1.00% costs $2,400 / month.
A 30 year loan at 0.10% costs $2,100 / month.
A 30 year loan at 0.01% costs $2,090 / month.
And we are not talking about a frugal person honestly trying to pay the loan :-) It is a person pretty much nobody likes, nor trusts, and they are spending twice what they earn!
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Genesis
Posts: 130807
Incept: 2007-06-26
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No, the actual federal debt is about $11 trillion, $5 trillionish of which is public float.
The rest is PROMISES, not DEBTS. Big difference.
We are financing FIVE TO SIX trillion, NOT 11 and NOT 75.
If we try to DOUBLE that five to six the market will throw up all over the attempt.
THERE IS NO WAY OUT OF THIS BOX.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Will
Posts: 76
Incept: 2008-12-26
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"If that circumstance occurs we will get Hitler."
And my bet would be our war will be with Mexico. I think we'll get a little taste of what this might be like by late summer. I think odds are favorable for harassment and assault in places like home depot parking lots and other favorite day labor pickup spots.
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Blacknapkins
Posts: 409
Incept: 2008-10-28
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Call this tinfoil if you want...But as a college student, I see/deal with Obamania on a regular basis. There are still a vast majority of 18-25 year olds who think that Obama has done the right thing, and can do no wrong. Of course this can change, but most people are very happy with this Admin. Of course they're not reading forums like this, and analyzing it with any detail.
What better character on the world stage than someone who people blindly trust for no good reason? I'm not out right comparing Obama to Hitler, but they're both great public speakers and can captivate their audiences...
Nothing to do with the capital markets I know...But i can't ignore the "Obamania" factor.
Not to mention the civil unrest brewing out of Mexico and the obvious trouble in Eastern Europe.
Edit: True.
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Young new trader. Take anything I say with a grain of salt, and please don't hesitate to correct me. I'm here to learn, and hopefully make some money. :D
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Genesis
Posts: 130807
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Obama is not be the one you have to fear. It is the person who follows him.
The Hitler scenario comes about after the existing government collapses, and collapse it will if they don't cut this **** out.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Karefree
Posts: 1700
Incept: 2008-10-15
Nor Cal
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Quote:America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter, and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves. - Abraham Lincoln Gen - your sentiment in the ticker echoes this quote from Lincoln.. sadly, I believe both of you are right.
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Matthew 6:21 "For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also"
Reason: spelling
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Lugnut
Posts: 348
Incept: 2008-09-24
New Jersey
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US as banana republic. Hmmm.
Wonder who the new furher might be..... Lou Dobbs?
Time to get some reflective sunglasses, grow a porn mustache and buy some fatigues I guess.
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Xanares
Posts: 2595
Incept: 2008-11-10
Between Sicily and Tunisia
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I don't think the odds are that high. Rest of the world would rather eat dirt for years than have a Hitler in US. But certainly there is a chance considering the road sofar. A fracture of the US states union I guess could happen too.. although I admit to know very little about all that.
Anyway, 5% with Geithner and Summers aboard the ship.. better sleep close to the exits. I wonder about my gfs plan of moving to NY in sep.. doesn't seem like the best idea ever right now.
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