How Do You Spell "Liquidity Trap"?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2008-11-12 10:13
by Karl Denninger
Ignore this thread
How Do You Spell "Liquidity Trap"?
 

Ahem.

Release Date: November 12, 2008

For release at 10:00 a.m. EST

On November 10, 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $150 billion in 17-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. This was a forward auction designed to provide term funding over year-end--the awarded loans will settle on December 22, 2008. Following are the results of the auction:

Stop-out rate:0.528 percent
     
Total propositions submitted:$12.629 billion
Total propositions accepted:$12.629 billion
Bid/cover ratio:0.08
     
Number of bidders:16

The awarded loans will mature on January 8, 2009. The stop-out rate shown above will apply to all awarded loans.

Institutions that submitted winning bids will be contacted by their respective Reserve Banks by 11:30 a.m. EST on November 12, 2008. Participants have until 12:30 p.m. EST on November 12, 2008, to inform their local Reserve Bank of any error.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081112a.htm

Note the bid-to-cover.

No further explanation necessary.

Well, ok, maybe there is one necessary.

Less than 10% of the available credit was drawn down.

Why?

Because when cash becomes competitive with short-term credit in terms of return (that is, cash yields zero, short-term credit costs and yields zero) then there is no reason to take risk; you're better off with the cash.

Ben pointed his liquidity gun at the market, pulled the trigger, and got......

CLICK.

Game's over Ben; you no longer have "liquidity" to shower on the market; there's no take-up.

Now we're left with either (1) doing the right thing or (2) Weimar Germany-style printing.

Oh, to Henry Paulson, who is lying once again on national TV this morning:

Shut the hell up.

You're full of crap.

You've prevented nothing.  You have in fact lied to Congress about the purpose of your $700 billion "TARP", which has been used to buy up competitors and pay bonuses, and you changed tax policy without a vote of Congress in the dark of night, which you STILL haven't talked about in public.  You didn't know what you were doing originally and it is obvious that you still don't.

In fact, Rick Santelli put it quite simply on television this morning in regards to what you did by holding up two pieces of paper:

BAIT (and) SWITCH

Your (and Bernanke's) continued cheerleading and falsehoods have destroyed business and consumer confidence.  Every time you open your mouth the market tanks, because you still have not decided to tell the truth.  "Securitizing credit" is a pointless exercise until the excessive debt is defaulted, as there is no demand for additional credit when the consumer is tapped out and businesses are failing.

You continue to talk about increasing credit in the system when the cause of the problem in the first place was excessive credit creation

YOU PERSONALLY lobbied Congress and The SEC to PERMIT that excessive credit creation, were rejected once in 2000, and in 2004 you came back as CEO of Goldman Sachs and GOT WHAT YOU WANTED - a policy change that WAS THE DIRECT AND PROXIMATE CAUSE OF THE MESS WE ARE NOW IN.

You have REFUSED to accept that responsibility and you continue to talk about "recovery" and "reform" but you and YOUR demands for removal of safeguards in 2000 and 2004 ARE WHY WE ARE HERE.

THERE IS NO SOLUTION TO THIS PROBLEM NOR WILL THE ECONOMY FIND A BOTTOM AND RECOVER UNTIL YOU STOP TRYING TO FEED A DRUNK WITH LIVER CANCER WHO IS PUKING UP BLOOD MORE BOOZE, AND IF YOU DON'T STOP THIS CRAP AND SOON THE DRUNK (OUR ECONOMY, OUR MONETARY SYSTEM AND POSSIBLY OUR POLITICAL SYSTEM) IS GOING TO DIE. 

WHEN THAT HAPPENS, NOT IF, YOU, CONGRESS AND PRESIDENT BUSH WILL BEAR THE PROPER RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ENSUING DEPRESSION, ONE THAT IS LIKELY TO SURPASS THE 1930s BOTH IN SEVERITY AND DURATION.

It is time for you to accept responsibility for your actions and their consequences, resign, and for the government to invite adults into the room before we have another fiscal "accident" - this time in the Treasury market as the world decides that buying government debt from a liar is a really, really bad idea.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info How Do You Spell "Liquidity Trap"? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Mtgspy
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Well isnt that nice? So treasury rate can remain artificially low.

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I'll stay away from this one, I'll instead grab my smiley and watch the pretty fireworks. - Karl
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Genesis
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Cash is preferrable to a loan at this rate.

This is what happened to Japan - you get cash to be fungible with short-term credit, and the game's over.

Ben's gun just went "click."

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Mondocondo
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"Note the bid-to-cover.

No further explanation necessary."


Well, for us dumb****s out there, further explanation IS necessary. What does bid-to-cover mean, and what's the implication?
Jkilkelly
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help me on how to interpret - it reads to me that they couldnt sell what they were offering which says that either 1) banks dont want to borrow more money, and or 2) they dont have collateral to post.

how is this keeping treasury rates low when they only sold 8%

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“They say there are no atheists in a foxhole. Well, there are no libertarians in a financial crisis, either.'' Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard economist
Mtgspy
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bid-to-cover ratio Definition


In a Treasury auction, the number of bids received divided by the number of bids accepted. Rather than the number of bids, sometimes the total amount of the bids is used instead. The higher the ratio, the higher the demand.

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I'll stay away from this one, I'll instead grab my smiley and watch the pretty fireworks. - Karl
Safety is the greatest risk of all, because safety leaves no room for miracles and miracles are the only sure thing in life. - A random black supporting actor.
We iz all gonna diiiiiieeeeeeee. - Raingod
Genesis
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No demand.

Ben pointed his liquidity gun at the market, pulled the trigger, and got....

CLICK!

Now he gets to choose between doing the right thing and being Weimar Germany.

What an *******.

I updated the Ticker with an explanation.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Mtgspy
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To be fair, it is KINDA hard to lend when several large states have 50%+ negative home equity.

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I'll stay away from this one, I'll instead grab my smiley and watch the pretty fireworks. - Karl
Safety is the greatest risk of all, because safety leaves no room for miracles and miracles are the only sure thing in life. - A random black supporting actor.
We iz all gonna diiiiiieeeeeeee. - Raingod
Jkilkelly
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thats what I thought - thanks GEN

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“They say there are no atheists in a foxhole. Well, there are no libertarians in a financial crisis, either.'' Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard economist
Jkilkelly
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wouldnt this have the impact of depressing longer dated treasury prices?

If the banks wont borrow at these rates when they could turn around and buy treasuries and pocket the difference, then this cant be good for artificial price supports for longer dated treasuries....

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“They say there are no atheists in a foxhole. Well, there are no libertarians in a financial crisis, either.'' Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard economist
Genesis
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This is your first indication of a failed auction. It just happened at The Fed instead of Treasury.

So far.

This is UGLY with a capital "U".

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Bluebird
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Out of curiosity, what is the usual bid-to-cover ratio?

Reason: spelling
Mondocondo
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Thanks, Gen and Mtgspy, for the explanations. I'm still learning a lot, thanks to this forum.
Jkilkelly
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What the ****ing dumb **** pol's cant grasp on this credit crisis is that there are no good "borrowers" out there to either approve for new lending or who even want more debt.

It is baffling them that they cant force this to happen.

they will print - isnt it obvious?

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“They say there are no atheists in a foxhole. Well, there are no libertarians in a financial crisis, either.'' Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard economist
Jkilkelly
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Oh **** Paulson is talking

Will make for a good opening act for tonights video (the Ben and Hank chronicles)

Gen is watching.............

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“They say there are no atheists in a foxhole. Well, there are no libertarians in a financial crisis, either.'' Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard economist
Weezie
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Mtgspy,

I'm not following how the rates could remain low. Isn't this bid/cover ratio horrendously low and wouldn't that mean there's poor demand, thus rates would have to rise in order to pique interest in the auctions? Is my understanding backwards?

Edit: I started writing this but wasn't able to post until AFTER the other responses.

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The election is not a way to have a voice in government, but rather an impotent declaration if we prefer ketchup or mustard on our **** sandwich.

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Nobody
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Interesting. So who's the buyer of this debt normally? 16 bidders, surely that doesn't include people going thru TreasuryDirect etc.
Genesis
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No, it means that rates are too close to zero - there's too much liquidity for demand.

You cannot stimulate with lower rates once cash becomes fungible with credit at the short end. This is the definition of a "liquidity trap" and means you're literally out of policy tools.

The gun is empty and Bernanke's policy has failed.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Weezie
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Thanks, got it backwards.

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The election is not a way to have a voice in government, but rather an impotent declaration if we prefer ketchup or mustard on our **** sandwich.
Gt80
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Karl -check out IRX
Jkilkelly
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wont he pull out some liquidity by selling treasuries?

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“They say there are no atheists in a foxhole. Well, there are no libertarians in a financial crisis, either.'' Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard economist
Widgeon
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Just thinking ...

They can't "give" anymore money to corporations and expect any further 'spending' activity ... IMHO they've already essentially opened the spigot full-on for any corporation that asks.

The Spring'08 "stimulus check" DID produce about a 6 week spike (I think) - if they want to actually go the Weimar route it's gonna have to be through 'stimulus check' like actions - giving money directly to people that will spend it in stores ... at the ground level.

I can't imagine that happening ... BWTFDIK?

Jkilkelly
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well if the monetary policies arent working based upon the results of this auction, then they only other stimulative steps available would be fiscal - deficit spending via stimilus and public works programs


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“They say there are no atheists in a foxhole. Well, there are no libertarians in a financial crisis, either.'' Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard economist
Bozonian
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Next step: Negative interest rates, FED starts borrowing from private banks!

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Forget about blaming, fighting with, or crediting other people. The only real challenge in life, is with yourself. -- Me

Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.
Lemonaid
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Does been still have long Term T's? So there's three options... the right thing, Weimer Germany, and hawking long term T's?

Wouldn't he burn through long term T's before outright printing? Of course that will put upward pressure on morgage yields but certainly printing dollars is worse.

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises

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