More Bubblenomics and The Big Idea
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2008-11-06 08:36
by Karl Denninger
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More Bubblenomics and The Big Idea
 

Last night I got 30 seconds on Donny's "Big Idea" and handed out the 30-second version of The Ticker from yesterday - that is, lock up all the fraudsters and rescind the TARP.

Cramer had his usual retort that "ATM machines would stop working" if we had done that (or do it now.)

That's a lie.

How do we know its a lie?

Because the TARP was sold as a plan to buy distressed mortgages, and in fact not one distressed mortgage has been purchased, but the ATM machines are still working!

In reality what the TARP/EESA is and was is exactly what I propounded on Big Idea last evening - it is a heist.

Cramer looked like he had a lemon in his mouth when I said "lock 'em all up"; he should, given that he's one of the people who would get locked up.  His misdirection, as I see it, goes beyond just being a crappy analyst.

Anyone remember his call on Downey Savings and Loan (NYSE: DSL) last year?  I do - well.  Cramer's call was that it was going to $100 and/or was going to be bought out for $100.

Now let's look at what Downey really is.  Downey is a financial institution that made loans which the borrower had no chance in hell of being able to pay back according to their original terms - "Option ARMs" in California.

Why is this important?  Because this was the essence of the bubble.

Donny was "surprised" that a trader would have a position of "lock 'em all up!"

Why should he be surprised?  When I make a bad trade (and I've made many) I get to own 'em.  I must suffer the loss that comes from it, no matter how bad it is - even if it bankrupts me and I wind up handing out shopping carts at WalMart.  It doesn't matter - it's my error, it's my loss.

The essence of this bubble was to get big enough, and intertwined enough, that the government would guarantee your losses.

This, of course, makes people like Cramer smile - after all, he's "Wall Street establishment."

Make sure you smile (or is that grimace?) when he takes his position behind you, because he and his buds are not coming to pat you on the back.

But beyond the obvious personal problem I have with asking taxpayers to bail out the bad bets made with full knowledge of their stupidity, I am in fact opposed to this because of the mathematics at work.

Again I refer back to the fact that we are dangerously close to new debt generating a negative GDP return.  Once that happens the game is over; you now are compelled to issue new debt to pay the interest on the old debt, and every dollar you issue causes more depression of GDP.

The BS about "bailing out" the banks and therefore "restarting credit creation" is in fact a lie. 

Credit creation can't restart to any material degree because the maximum amount of serviceable debt in the system has been reached. 

We are now seeing the terminal phases of this in the consumer space, as consumer credit card borrowing has gone parabolic.  I've been writing on this for over a year and in the last couple of months the feared acceleration has shown up - the "blow off" that comes before the "blow up" - which is now inevitable.

Moving that debt from one place (consumer, business and bank balance sheets) to another (the Treasury and Fed) does not change the outcome, and it is not possible to "grow" our way out of this because we have been creating false GDP "growth" through credit issuance, not production of goods and services.

We cannot grow incomes as "global wage arbitrage" has offshored too many high-paying jobs, never mind that radically boosting wages would produce the dreaded wage/price inflationary spiral that Bernanke (and everyone else) remembers from the 1970s.

There is only one way out of this box that does not pass through destruction of our economic, monetary and potentially our political system, and that is for the bad debt in the system to be forced into the open and defaulted, accepting that this will produce a lot of bankruptcies in the process.

Bankruptcy is in fact a cleansing mechanism in that it removes debt from the system and thereby reduces overall systemic leverage.  While it is painful for the organization or individual who goes through it, and the knock-on effects frequently produce even more pain, it is the only way to eliminate excessive debt when one can no longer pay it down through growth.

The sooner we recognize this threat the less pain we take in total (not in the short term) extricating ourselves from this mess. 

If we wait too long there is no extrication possible; we are then compelled to strike the singularity of a monetary reset, where the monetary system of the United States fails. 

That event has a near-certainty of producing a political failure in the nation at or near the same time.

History tells us that nations caught in this mess, if they pass the event horizon of monetary failure and are representative governments, never escape without passing through a totalitarian regime. 

The Roman Empire is the first written example for which we have solid evidence, and from there the path continues onward and upward through Weimar Germany post-WWI, which underwent the same monetary destruction and had its populace elect a fine gentlemen with the first name of "Adolf".

None of us want to see that outcome - at least, none of us who are sane.

I therefore issue an open challenge to Jim Cramer, CNBC and the rest of the media - let's have this debate in the open.  I'll get on a plane; I'd prefer to do it face-to-face rather than on a remote, as there's real benefit to being able to have that debate across a table.  We'll all bring our charts, data and brains, and "air it out" for The American People.

In the meantime if you're looking for "a bull market somewhere" I would recommend instead checking the other end of the bull.

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User Info More Bubblenomics and The Big Idea in forum [Market-Ticker]
Tesla
Posts: 15541
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Green A True American Patriot!
State of Disbelief
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Quote:
I would recommend instead checking the other end of the bull


A great line.

Typo alert: than one a remote, ??

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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams

Av8rphil
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Kimberling City, MO
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Think it should be ON insteaad of one:

I'd prefer to do it face-to-face rather than one a remote

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"Two things in life are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and i'm not sure about the universe" -Einstein
Eddd
Posts: 42
Incept: 2008-03-25

New York
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Gen,
I agree that monetary failures are followed by political failures as governments that lose control of their economies framework tend to implode in nasty, rapid fashion.

Do you think implementing you plan would allow us to pull off a "graceful" transition out of dollar hegemony as the British did post WWII? Not that the pound's shift from standard unit of international exchange to dollar subordinate was all that great for the British. I just can't think of any better examples of a major currency moving out of "first place" with less drama than the pound did...
Genesis
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Eddd there is no guarantee we have not already passed the event horizon.

But it is a certainty that if we don't cut this **** out we will cross it.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Etz
Posts: 13888
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Silver
LA
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Quote:
His misdirection, as I see it, goes beyond just being a crappy analyst.
Yep. Same as most Wall Street analysts that simply can't be trusted,
Quote:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2....

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Analysts are slicing profit forecasts for U.S. companies in the fourth quarter and 2009 as third- period results miss projections at the highest rate in almost 11 years.
...
"There's no visibility," Young said. "I'm not even looking at '09 numbers because I don't trust them. They're too high."

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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Cash-out
Posts: 2507
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Green A True American Patriot!
Live Free or Die - NH
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Gen., ever see one of those 'panel of experts' discuss a 'issue of the day' on PBS?

Usually sponsered by a University with a Media outlet.

Maybe you could start a 'Crossing the Nation tour (Sponsoring yourself) with your own camera crew (we have Professionals here),, along with three or four Colleges or Universities (I would be happy to ask UNH) and let's start bypassing the MSM and DC crooks.

Always ask for $ or hours of donated time in each city to 'rally for the cure'....

Or not.

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More prepared than ready.
Brobdingnagian
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Oligarchansas
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Is there a link for this appearance? I'd love to see it. Thanks.

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"We are about to discover what happens when widespread panglossian delusions run head-on into mathematical reality."

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2banana
Posts: 337
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<i>which underwent the same monetary destruction and had its populace elect a fine gentlemen with the first name of "Adolf".</i>

Hmmm, Adolf was the leader of the National Socialist Workers Party of Germany, otherwise known as the Nazi Party. Hitler preached class warfare, agitating the working class to resist "exploitation" by capitalists -- particularly Jewish capitalists, of course. Their program called for the nationalization of education, health care, transportation, and other major industries. They instituted and vigorously enforced a strict gun control regimen. They encouraged pornography, illegitimacy, and abortion, and they denounced Christians as right-wing fanatics.

Hmmmmm....
Mtgspy
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We have. I repeat, we have crossed the event horizon and that is why my priority is NOT at all geared towards constructionism. 100% certainty we have crossed it on the day USD swap lines were opened.

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I'll stay away from this one, I'll instead grab my smiley and watch the pretty fireworks. - Karl
Safety is the greatest risk of all, because safety leaves no room for miracles and miracles are the only sure thing in life. - A random black supporting actor.
We iz all gonna diiiiiieeeeeeee. - Raingod
Howardnyc
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wait a second, they gave karl 30 seconds of air time on cnbs? that's whacha call dere your event horizon.

if they actually have you back on tv, that is when i will get really scared.

(nice work, as usual karl. please someone post a link when it shows up on the youtube.)

ah, search, and ye shall find: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1oI1PrZa....

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kd told me (and i believe him) that
"We (Americans) deserve a Depression."

Reason: link formatting
Meatpuddle
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I'm with Mtgspy and he has been right about everything from day one, including the mi casa su casa theory and the FNM takeover debacle. We have crossed the event horizon where more "money" creation is actually a negative on GDP. As Mtgspy said, when the USD swap lines were opened I knew right then that it was fourth down and 44 and we just punted. A currency reset is inevitable and may even be imminent. I know that Hedgie's post wound up in the "bilge" but this should probably not be dismissed as tinfoil too quickly:

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/ak....

BTW, Mtgspy, what is your priority geared towards, if you don't mind me asking?

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"the idea that you're "entitled" to a 5 or 6 percent 30 year mortgage is horse****, and so is the housing prices that it has created." - Genesis
Mtgspy
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I am using 25% of my money to make more money in the market short ONLY and send the rest abroad in diversified FX just so they can't be confiscated. Down 10% - big effin deal. I'll take down 30% anyday if the alternative is the lava pit.

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I'll stay away from this one, I'll instead grab my smiley and watch the pretty fireworks. - Karl
Safety is the greatest risk of all, because safety leaves no room for miracles and miracles are the only sure thing in life. - A random black supporting actor.
We iz all gonna diiiiiieeeeeeee. - Raingod
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8841
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saint louis
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DSL - too bad I didn't ride that bastard to the bottom. Love it though when you bring up Cramers call on that. I shorted at 63.90 and he ran it up right then. I called my cousins husband a financial planner in the UCLA area of LA and talked to him about real estate out there. He said people are saying the bottom's in and such. But he told me he had sold his house and that he was renting a place that cost $2.2 million for $3000 a month. **** that won't even cover the tax payments on the house. I should have pushed all my chips in then on that dumb**** Cramer and called his bluff. As it was I rode it down to $17 or so and covered. Then made some more money on its evil twin sister FED. If that ****er was shortable I'd be up 500% in the last 18 months instead of 150%. FED has been the easiest play out there but it is so expensive for puts.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Options
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Rick said to send all correspondence to 440 S. Lasalle Chicago Illinois 60605. 24th floor. He said he will have offices opening there soon. He said no Scotch etc, but a note is OK. Jim

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I think we should drink, heavily.
Linrom
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I see that Karl and MTGSPY are fans of Hypertiger.

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Genesis
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Options: smiley

CNBC gonna gun him 'eh?

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Paintedtape
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No Name City
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Genesis and Mtgspy, how long do you think it will take for people who desire to dump US securities and currency to get out of them, and what other currencies or liquid medium-of-exchange (if any) would it be desirable to begin converting dollars into? Or would owning actual shares of stock in a company that won't die be preferable at that point?

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Genesis
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"We're ****ed. They're ****ed worse."

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Mtgspy
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Green

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Sure, that is why I also have USD banknotes out there, not here, for fear of confiscation since March this year. Give me 1% probability of such and I will transfer 100% of what I can out of here. And I did.

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I'll stay away from this one, I'll instead grab my smiley and watch the pretty fireworks. - Karl
Safety is the greatest risk of all, because safety leaves no room for miracles and miracles are the only sure thing in life. - A random black supporting actor.
We iz all gonna diiiiiieeeeeeee. - Raingod
Noodleman
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Incept: 2008-11-01

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Cramer is a proven clown. Back when I paid attention to his show he chose stocks like UNH, MOT, NYX as his long term winners. The rest is history. Barron's showed that you have a better chance at beating the market by flipping a coin than watching Cramer. Consulting Cramer for advice on the economic meltdown is like asking Frankenstein to come up with a plan to control Dracula. The entire CNBC crew touted the 'bailout' prior to Oct. 3. No surprise there. Wall Street lapdogs. Rick and Dylan Ratigan were against it after being for it. Angry emails and phone calls proably prompted that. I've over CNBC.

Inline

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"Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom." Will Rogers, 4 Nov 1879 - 15 Aug 1935

Lugnut
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Meatpuddle
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Linrom, That is some crazy good thinking and will be added to the perma blog-roll.

http://hypertiger.blogspot.com/

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"the idea that you're "entitled" to a 5 or 6 percent 30 year mortgage is horse****, and so is the housing prices that it has created." - Genesis
Fidgit
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Tax Unit #1,384,923,781
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Meatpuddle, I was wondering...thanks :)
Ocbear
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OC, CA
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Quote:

send the rest abroad in diversified FX just so they can't be confiscated.


Which currencies are safe(ish)?

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