Truth? Where? (Why Credit is Locked)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2008-10-15 10:54
by Karl Denninger
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Truth? Where? (Why Credit is Locked)
 

Hattip Calculated Risk:

"Meredith Whitney: I just want to be clear in terms of the decline in originations on your mortgage portfolio, was that more credit based or in terms of tightening underwriting standards or LIBOR challenge?

Jamie Dimon: The origination business, and I think it's true for a lot of people in the industry, Meredith, people have gone back to old fashioned 80% LTV, real verified income, more disciplined appraisals, and then in some areas they won't even go to 85% LTV because of expected home decreases so we are not at 85% in California, Nevada, or Florida we're at 65. So that's why it's down. I think it's true for us and everybody else. Almost everything being originated is eligible for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or FHA. So therefore you have this great reduction. Obviously the quality of that stuff is going to be much higher."

The response from someone in the loan closing business on my board:

"Umm, Jamie, I close your loans....you lying sack of ***t "

And we wonder why the credit markets are locked up?

A better question is why Jamie Dimon isn't locked up.

The automated-underwriting game is alive and well, as are high-DTI loans with all the agencies.

Until the lying stops and lending returns to 36% DTI, 80% LTV (30/fixed implied) home prices will not find their bottom and the losses will not end.

Nor will the credit markets unlock, because everyone involved with more than two firing neurons in their head knows that the lies continue to come thick and fast.

This, by the way, was supposed to be made a criminal offense by SarBox and other regulation after ENRON blew up. 

You can see for yourself how good of a job it did.

Hank, Ben and Congress: If you do not stomp on this here and now, continuing instead to "throw money at the problem", we are going to get that bond market dislocation and an economic depression.

I and others have been hammering on this for close to 18 months and you continue to play your same old tune with identical (failed) results, because you have refused, for the entirety of that time, to put a stop to the blatant lying across the financial industry.

Quarter after quarter we saw "kitchen sink" claims only to find that we then had to rip out the plumbing!  Whre is the accountability for those failed claims Hank, Ben and CONgress?

This is identical to what happened in the 1990s in the Internet sector (I know, I ran a company in that space and saw it every day) but that was one sector of the economy. 

This time its everyone that gets screwed because this is at the heart of the economy, and that heart is rotten at the core.

When do you stop coddling the liars and thieves and instead start forcing them into the open where they can be prosecuted and jailed? 

I understand they are your friends Ben and Hank but when do you put the good of the country in front of protecting the billions that your buddies have extracted from ordinary Americans over the last 10 years? 

As just one example a simple discounted cash-flow analysis (which used to be taught in sixth grade, but no longer is) on your latest "injection" shows that you are screwing the taxpayer to the tune of more than half of your "equity injection" in these same institutions.

If you want credit to unlock you must put a stop to this across the entire financial system and force the truth into the open.

If you do not stop the games our entire economy is headed straight for the hole in the center of the toilet.

Your latest "intervention" was good for one hour worth of rocket ride higher, and now we are down 350 points on the DOW - again - and its only 10:00 CT.  At this rate in another 30 days or so the market will be at zero - it can't go lower than zero, right?

America is tired of the lies Hank and Ben, and we're tired of you covering for and giving our money to the liars.

Cut it out NOW while we still have an economy and financial system left to rescue.

Oh, my anecdotal evidence on LOCs is no longer anecdotal.  This is precisely the sort of disruption that, if not cured immediately, can lead to empty store shelves:

"``Letters of credit and the credit lines for trade currently are frozen,'' Khalid Hashim, managing director of Precious Shipping Pcl, Thailand's second-largest shipping company, said in Singapore yesterday. ``Nothing is moving because the trader doesn't want to take the risk of putting cargo on the boat and finding that nobody can pay.'' "

Cut it out H-h-h-h-Hank.

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User Info Truth? Where? (Why Credit is Locked) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Crbianfool
Posts: 190
Incept: 2007-07-18
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virginia
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Thanks for the update, I have been trying to explain to my friends and family for days why all of these bailouts and other such BS is paving the way to disaster. I am already sending this out across the series of tubes. Excellent piece KD!

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"I give up.
Let me know when you stop searching for The Holy Grail."

Wise & Sagelike Advice From Genesis
Pinal
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Chicago
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I think that link changed for that article. New link for that article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=n....
Coolmama
Posts: 388
Incept: 2008-01-27

Gedney Drove End, UK
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"``Letters of credit and the credit lines for trade currently are frozen,'' Khalid Hashim, managing director of Precious Shipping Pcl, Thailand's second-largest shipping company, said in Singapore yesterday. ``Nothing is moving because the trader doesn't want to take the risk of putting cargo on the boat and finding that nobody can pay.'' "

This letter of credit thing is only a couple of lines long but looks to be of enormous significance. Apart from Christmas not being delivered, if you have stuff in the port (hopefully you haven't already got a ship to go from fob to cif) it will just sit there costing you money while you try to get an L/C sorted out. If I was a buyer with a letter of credit in my hot little hand I bet I could get a fanastic discount, and good rates on the insurance and shipping. And charge a premium if a shortage was developing in the country of destination. This could lead to weird shortages in specific areas a bit like your piece about the truck delivery man, but on a shipment scale. I'm not good at thinking through the implications, and would very much appreciate your thoughts.

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The point to carefully consider is whether any of the underlying problems that led to the crisis, most specifically excessive levels of debt and leverage, have actually been addressed rather than being hidden and papered over. Genesis 27 Nov 2009

Genesis
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You don't want to think about the implications Cool. There is NOTHING trivial about them.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Lugnut
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True, if this were 1970, and the balance of imports were back a a level when we manufactured much of our hard goods domestically, it wouldn't be potentially as large an issue, but as it is today, with most production offshored, it is potentially a huge huge deal
Hokulani
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"with most production offshored, it is potentially a huge huge deal "


As in the Grinch is stealing all the presents from Whoville.


Inline

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You cannot solve a debt crisis with more debt any more than you can fix a drunk with a case of whiskey. KD

Themortgagedude
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saint louis
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Gen

smileysmiley

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Guydaley
Posts: 15320
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Sorry, I'm not going to base this ONE quote:

Quote:
"``Letters of credit and the credit lines for trade currently are frozen,'' Khalid Hashim, managing director of Precious Shipping Pcl, Thailand's second-largest shipping company, said in Singapore yesterday. ``Nothing is moving because the trader doesn't want to take the risk of putting cargo on the boat and finding that nobody can pay.'' "


as proof positive that its an endemic situation.

The media has done this bull**** countless times before to push their own agenda.

My favorite is where the media will quote how a grower had to plow under there crops because there was no labor to pick it.

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Its called creeping TEOTWAWKI. Just because it doesn't happen all at once doesn't mean it isn't happening.
Genesis
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So if 10% of the nation has no food that's not a problem right?

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Guydaley
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Gen - Are you asking me that question?

If so, how do you come up with that figure? Where do you come up with that premise at all? Based on WHAT?

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Its called creeping TEOTWAWKI. Just because it doesn't happen all at once doesn't mean it isn't happening.
Aac123
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I cant understand why the **** the main stream media doesnt report the real news

Start a media empire KD - you will make a fortune - great ticker as always

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Any one of us who doesn't have a healthy fear of the unknown isn't paying attention - Bank of America's Ken Lewis
Genesis
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Guy, go **** yourself.

This is real. You can ignore if you want, but its real. I know people in the international trade business and there is a **** TON of stuff sitting on docks worldwide right now.

Get your lazy ****ing ass over to the port of LA and ask them about container count coming in. Ditto on any of the east coast ports.

JUST OPEN YOUR ****ING EYES before you go off claiming that its not real.

The evidence is right in front of you but you refuse to look. The anecdotes started two weeks ago and now it has hit the mainstream press.

THIS IS NOT BULL****.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Falcor
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Just asked a family member who works as a traffic controller for a shipping company. Owner recently sold part of his fleet. I sent him this article and he wrote back:

Quote:
Boss sold ships in may - thank god or I would be out of a job...we would all be at the store...

Hight of the market was may. Guy he sold them to is trying to give them back....We will only take them at scrap levels...

it is going to get worse before it gets better...

Right on with loc...companies going out o fbusiness daily.

Guydaley
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Gen - I'm pretty good at putting the clues together. And I'm DAMN GOOD at spotting the clues.

If the container count is ebbing, well golly, could it have SOMETHING TO DO WITH A RECESSION? and the fact that we don't need to buy as much garbage while we're unemployed?

LOOK, I KNOW EXACTLY WHAT YOU ARE DOING with todays ticker. You are trying to create some grassroots response to get people off there dead ass by being just a wee bit alarmist about the situation based on tenuous evidence at best.

That's okay by me, I hope you are successful at wedging a few more people off their easy chairs.

But don't give me this bull**** line LOCs being denied as the ONLY reason for fewer imports.

I've had my eyes GLUED to the internet news since you started this blog.


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Its called creeping TEOTWAWKI. Just because it doesn't happen all at once doesn't mean it isn't happening.
Guyfawkes
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I think it's a situation where it starts slowly - as in the anecdotal remarks/articles we've all seen - but once it hits, it REALLY hits hard. I've mentioned the LOC/slowdown in shipping, etc to friends & family, who aren't as concerned as I am since they haven't seen anything about it on the nightly news. But, if I can just get them 'ready' for it by priming them with this anecdotal evidence, then once it hits the nightly news they (hopefully) won't stop and think about it.......I'm hoping they'll immediately rush to the store and stock up while everyone ELSE is 'thinking about it'.

I'd prefer they do it now, but if I can just get them 'thinking about it' now, then maybe they'll still have enough time to get in before everyone else does should the SHTF for real.
Whatcha
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National Retail Federation sez

2008 Retail Container Traffic to be Lowest Since 2005

WASHINGTON, October 7, 2008 – Cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is now expected to decline 6.5 percent in 2008 compared with 2007 as merchants carefully manage inventories in response to the nation’s slow economy, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Global Insight.

http://www.nrf.com/modules.php?name=News....

Henri
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As much as I often view Guydaley's posts as generally overly optimistic, cheer-leading inputs (esp. when responses to posts in the Breaking section), I have to side with him on this one. From my distant viewpoint, it would seem containers coming in slower would be more a consequence of a (now documented) economic slowdown than of a sudden credit freeze.

Genesis
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Look up a few posts at FALCOR's comment. That's from someone in the business.

Folks, I know people in this line of work too. Same story.

This is NOT localized.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Garyk
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The Baltic Dry Index is down 86 percent since May. Take a look at one of the ugliest charts imaginable.




http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BDI....

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Allclear
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its all mass confusion to me. No way to verify any numbers. Gov numbers are fudged sometimes, revised, and revised again. Media spins the roulette wheel to determine which truth or lie they will report. No transparency from banks. No enforcement of SEC rules. People gaming the system. An elected body of crooks (yeah...that be CONgress) that pander to lobbyists and filling their own coffers. And it will continue until the system explodes. And then you have either McCain or Obama to deal with it.

The only way to play this game, is not to play the game. Pull your money from 401Ks and the like, pull your money from the banks, buy necessities only, and disconnect the TV cable and terrestrial radio.

But it seems that many are not willing to cut the head off the snake. Its too bad since its the primary tool we have in fighting back.

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Many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our point of view...Obi-Wan
Patentleathershoes
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On the Daisy Chain
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It would seem to me to lack prudence not to be prepared at this point. I have two months worth of stuff but will spend evenings this week and the weekend making sure it's six months. It can be done fairly cheaply and can be donated if not used.

Lots of beans and lot's of brown rice. Canned meat and tuna is cheap also.

Better safe than sorry.

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"An unborn child's property rights are protected by law. His right to life is not." Ronald Reagan
Yougofirst
Posts: 463
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Yugo is here...
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SCARY BDI chart! Don't worry, all you Midwesterners. We coastal folks promise not to take all we need before allowing goods to be shipped farther inland. We'll leave some for you. You're our buds. Really.

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Nothing I Say Is Advice.


Yaldor
Posts: 2687
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don't you think there will be a mechanism to by pass LOC ? like pre payment - is that at all possible or should we stock up on rice and other food not grown localy ?

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For every crash the probability of someone showing that he predicted it is near 1 .

For every prediction of an imminent crash the probability of it being correct is almost zero
Countlupotommaso
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This is real. You can ignore if you want, but its real. I know people in the international trade business and there is a **** TON of stuff sitting on docks worldwide right now.

Get your lazy ****ing ass over to the port of LA and ask them about container count coming in. Ditto on any of the east coast ports.>>>

Exactly true GEN... My friends are Longshoremans in NJ. The Piers which they work on where Brand new cars come in have all been put to a halt. Dead Freeze

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PINK FLOYD-SHEEP-.Meek and obedient you follow the leader Down well trodden corridors into the valley of steel.What a surprize!A look of terminal shock in your eyes. Now things are really what they seem.No this is not a bad dream
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