Thanks For the Crash CONGRESS!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2008-10-06 13:17
by Karl Denninger
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Thanks For the Crash CONGRESS!
 

See what you get when you listen to HANK PAULSON, the crook who made $500 million at Goldman (and got away with ALL OF IT, tax free!) while they were creating the precise same toxic sludge that you are now grilling Fuld over?

Yet, Congress, you knelt down and gave both him and Bush a Lewinski when they came to you claiming that their plan would save our 401ks, IRAs, and Main Street.

How's that working out Jackasses?  That's a 10 percent crash in two days, courtesy of YOU, Congress.

I have repeatedly said that Congress needs to lock up the infants in the playpen and allow the adults in the room to work out solutions to this problem that (1) preserve our funding for AMERICANS and (2) restore trust in the markets.  Adults like myself, "Mish" Shedlock and Nouriel Roubini, among others.

I also said that if this was not done, and the $700 (now $850) billion bailout was passed instead, that it would NOT restore confidence, that spreads would NOT come back in, and that in fact we were risking an all-on equity and credit market IMPLOSION.

Well this isn't a crash (yet) but its a hell of a sell-off, and you can thank Congress - directly - for it, because they are responsible. 

Directly responsible.

Please do so - call your Congresscritters (both House and Senate) and thank them LOUDLY for the over $1.5 trillion in market wealth that they have destroyed, some of which undoubtedly is yours along with the $700 billion bailout that is going to go to the Chinese.

Make sure you keep thanking them for the 30% loss in your portfolio since last October.  That, by the way is what one would expect as the full loss during a Bear Market and our government hasn't even admitted we're in a recession yet!

What's worse is that I am seeing increasing indicators of severe instability in the credit and stock markets, and if this continues we are very likely to get that crash that I have hoped and prayed would not come - perhaps as soon as tomorrow.

Let me once again outline how we solve this problem:

  • Force disclosure of everything on everyone's balance sheet and their marking models.  No exceptions.  This can be done now, administratively, and must be done right here and now.  Today.
  • Force all credit default swaps (CDS) and other OTC derivatives onto a public exchange.  (This, surprisingly, is actually being discussed - but a forced implementation has not yet been announced.)
  • Force leverage down to no higher than 12:1; if this forces asset sales, so be it.  Give participants six months to do it, 1/6th of the excess taken off per month until complete.

Once that is done we must then recapitalize the banking system, and the easiest way to do that is through forced "cramdown" debt-to-equity swaps.

The simple fact of the matter is that I have been yelling at Congress on this issue for over a year and we are now at a place where the market is threatening to blow up wholesale, with the real economy going off the cliff as consumer spending capacity simply evaporates. 

All this nonsense about "short selling" being responsible for this mess is an abject lie.  The proof is in the tape - you can't short, so why are the banks and other financial stocks collapsing?

We are here not just because of the excesses and fraud of the last ten years (although that certainly is at the root of it), but also because Congress has refused to do its damn job, even after being told repeatedly of the problem through letters, faxes, petitions and phone calls.

This is not an accident.  It is willful negligence and deserves the harshest form of sanction possible - loss of job - with everyone involved in the matter in the investment and commercial banking community going straight to prison for fraud or worse.

If this crisis is not arrested NOW instead of Congress holding worthless hearings where they point fingers we will have an economic Depression.

This is no longer in the realm of "might", it is now in the realm of "probably will."

Yet both candidates for President were participants in the swantz-blowing of Paulson and President Bush, and neither of them have done a damn thing to actually address the issue.

This is an all-on outrage and it is up to you, the people, to stand up and in one voice say NO MAS or suffer the consequences - imminently.

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User Info Thanks For the Crash CONGRESS! in forum [Market-Ticker]
Weezie
Posts: 6065
Incept: 2008-05-19
Gold A True American Patriot!
Caution: Congress at Work
Online
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Just 'dugg' it for you.

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The election is not a way to have a voice in government, but rather an impotent declaration if we prefer ketchup or mustard on our **** sandwich.
Themortgagedude
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saint louis
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Not so sure we can blame this crash on Congress for the bailout. I think it was coming one way or another. Simple matter of the market being overvalued vs earnings. As someone said before its hard to have a PE without the E. My line of thinking is that a very harsh recession is the best we can hope for no matter what we do. And the bailout and other items like nationalizing Fannie/Freddie and throwing money out the windows at the FED by buying all of these **** sandwiches I don't think has done anything good or bad for the economy.

I think what it has done is insure that we will default on our debt much sooner than we would have otherwise. The day is coming that the United States will default. In my eyes they have assured this will happen. I'm just about in Gen's camp that he talked about months ago. I'm voting for the worst of the two options, I want to get it over with.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Cjworkman
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Themortgage,

they certainly didn't help putting the president on TV scaring the bejesus out of people and calling for the end of the world to get the bill passed.

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Howie
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Wilmington, DE
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I called Tom Carpers office to bitch and they hung up on me. Arrogant bastards.

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"Banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. Already they have raised up a moneyed aristocracy that has set the government at defiance. The issuing power (of money) should be taken away from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs." - Thomas Jefferson
Laura
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Yes, we had a market correction coming, anyway. But, Congress sold the bailout as a sticksave of people's, 401Ks, IRAs, etc. Not to fear though, Rooney was on touting the wisdom of Bank of Seally yesterday. TARP should have gone to FDIC and MMF insurance to fix the commercial credit market and sticksave consumer and business accounts, buying us a little more time to implement KD's 3-step truth in banking plan. We could have managed to fix F&F in time, even with it's bailout package intact.

If the Chinese were going to sink us before TARP and the TARP sinks us anyway, maybe that was moot too. Maybe we already bought the US default day before last week and the Chinese made it obvious. Just a thought.

The more important principle is that Congress ignored We The People and violated our will, our constitution and our laws to make TARP law. Firing them is the least we can do and I'm afraid pitchforks won't be sufficient to prevent future moral hazard.

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www.................
Weezie
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Quote:
I called Tom Carpers office to bitch and they hung up on me. Arrogant bastards.


Call them back and tell them that part of their job is to also hear when they screw up. You're not their Mommy.

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The election is not a way to have a voice in government, but rather an impotent declaration if we prefer ketchup or mustard on our **** sandwich.
P9939068
Posts: 121
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Singapore Sling
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Karl: looks like it's still too early to post that chart...

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Get your head outta there, CON-gress!
Lugnut
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New Jersey
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-787, and still another 75 minutes of fun and jocularity left on the floor.

BUt who cares what the equity markets think.

TED spread hit 3.93% earlier. LIBOR is at around 2.73%

Bottom has not reported in yet, it would appear
Zanni-baby
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Green A True American Patriot!
the Valley
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KD--

Wow--all I can say is just WOW!

All in all, I just think you're the greatest! You have been the voice in the dark--and your message has been stellar! How much more could you have done? You have been a star in my sky!



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Let them eat stocks!
Eternalblue
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i'm waiting for the headline "THE BAILOUT IT DOES NOTHING" from the pumper media
Laura
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Hey, Gen, how's the full-page ad in whatever publication coming?

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www.................
Deepsee100
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The Med
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Time to start settling those Credit Default Swaps for Fannie and Freddie (Oct. 6), Lehman Brothers (Oct. 10) and Lehman Brothers (Oct 23)...this should just about justify the event? No, maybe another 7-10% tommorrow. yep. that should do it.?

It'ss almost like coming to the surface after a deepdive - a shallow leg for the last quarter - to the safety stop - and then you can surface and take a big breath.

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Next
Genesis
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Laura- working on it.

Also going to issue a BIG order for yard signs for FL-2 - been talking with Boyd's challenger.

He's going down.

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Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Laura
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Great - Now, I just need a yard...oh, yea, i have a beach...
Actually, I do want one, I'll put it on A1A. Can you do a banner too?
I have a wrap around balcony - I could do two banners - plastic stuff only for the rains and wind
Is Sen Martinez up for election?

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www.................
Mango
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"Lock the infants in the playpen and allow the adults in the room to work out solutions:- hehehehehehe. That's a good one Karl!

When the adults sit down make sure they bring up the the fact that the Utopian FRIEDMANISM HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN DEBUNKED along with Marxism and Trotsky.

*Reagan, Clinton, Bush = three presidents, one philosophy= Friedman's.
*"3 decades of Friedman's Utopian "Free markets" Puts Human Civilization at the Edge of Oblivion". That ought to be the headline!

Be sure to get that in there too huh Karl?
Francisco
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Karl wrote:

Quote:
Let me once again outline how we solve this problem:

Force disclosure of everything on everyone's balance sheet and their marking models. No exceptions. This can be done now, administratively, and must be done right here and now. Today...


This will never happen, because it would reveal as fact what the government is seeking at almost any cost to conceal: The vast interconnected web of global finance is insolvent. The acronym TARP is ironic, considering that a tarp is used to cover up something. The PTB are seeking to delay for as long as possible the recognition of reality, hoping for a miracle or at least holding off the coming spectacular collapse until the next group of government looters is in charge.

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"We have met the enemy, and he is us." —Pogo

Peace
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China said, "Either you buy back the crap you sold us, or we stop funding your deficits."

It's that simple!
Francisco
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Quote:
China said, "Either you buy back the crap you sold us, or we stop funding your deficits."


Here's my prediction: Chinese and other FCBs will only bid on TIPs type Treasuries (they already have lots of these); and will insist on conversion of their conventional Treasuries to inflation-protected instruments as the price for their future participation in auctions. You heard it here first.

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"We have met the enemy, and he is us." —Pogo

Hawaiitrader
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Aloha Nui Loa
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Great take...

I just dont see why we are continually surprised by our governments continual incompetence....I have 5 years (at least) in living expenses put away right now, each man and woman to their own IF we are now looking at a "probably will" happen depression as Karl says, and no longer a "might" happen scenario. You really think the government is going to come correct now? They are braindead

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My home is worth exactly what it was 3 years ago, glad I live on an island....
Mcsquick
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KD wrote

Quote:

Also going to issue a BIG order for yard signs for FL-2 - been talking with Boyd's challenger.

He's going down.


This would make my year. If there is anything I can do to help accomplish this let me know.

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When you have leverage you are only as solvent as you can roll your debt.

Musashi
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Behind the Irony Curtain
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Cameljoe
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smiley Thanks KD.

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I SEE DEBT PEOPLE.
The best answer to your problems?
= Personal responsibility.
Seberbach
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Re: "Thanks for the crash"....

Sometimes uncertainty makes people wait instead of acting, it seems.
Once people can see that bailing does not empty the leaking boat, they become more certain it will sink.

I think re Wells Fargo vs. Wachovia, that TPTB are skating on very thin ice if they do not use their newly voted powers to "make the correct choice" in forcing Citibank to stop trying abusing the legal system to ruin a deal with Wells Fargo which is more in the best interest of saving the taxpayers 40 Billion dollars, giving stockholders seven times the retained stock value, and allows Wachovia to remain intact instead of being broken up. Wachovia should not be "eaten" to feed Citi if the free market can allow Wells Fargo to save Wachovia without costing stockholders and taxpayers.

The people's protest against a deliberate abuse of the power to encourage a better deal than destroying Wachovia to "feed" Citi should be an easier case to make than stopping the President from strong-arming Congress.
Joe
Posts: 1232
Incept: 2008-06-18

Boston, MA
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EternalBlue wrote..
i'm waiting for the headline "THE BAILOUT IT DOES NOTHING" from the pumper media


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