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2018-06-05 15:22 by Karl Denninger
in POTD , 125 references

May you find your goal.....


Email today to put this piece on your wall tomorrow!  On canvas, ready to hang and enjoy.

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2018-06-05 09:06 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 125 references
[Comments enabled]  

Basic retail cost of hardware for a controlelr (power supply + Pi3 + Aeotec stick + microSD card + enclosure): $100.

Retail price for wall switches, dimmers, etc - ~$40/ea, presume 3 bedrooms each with a fan and lighting, living room lighting, family room lighting and kitchen plus an outdoor circuit for coach lights or similar.  Scale up or down as appropriate.  $400.

Retail price for motion and door sensors, $30 each.  Battery powered, no wiring required.  One in each bedroom (for lighting and intrusion), one in each other major living space, one on each garage door.  Assume two garage doors (nice house, remember?)  $300.

Two $70 Amcrest indoor 2k cameras plus one $75 1080p outdoor camera for the front door and one more for another outdoor location that needs monitoring.  Two wired (outdoor units), two wireless (power bricks included, with long cords)  $300.

Finally, add one quality deadbolt with secure remote operational capability so you can program door codes and have supervisory reports when it's opened or secured, whether by keypad code, the internal handle or remotely.  $200.

Now discount all that 30% since you buy in quantity and wholesale, which you keep.  We've got about an $1,300 hardware budget retail, of which ~30% is gross margin for you since you're the source, or about $350 per install.

Now there's software.  Charge a monthly $20 fee.  Enforced by certificate.  Gross margin is nearly 100% on this; the back end infrastructure is inexpensive to operate.  This is a recurring revenue stream.

Then there's installation.  Split that 50/50 with a builder or contractor who does the field work.  They charge $5,000 for the install, there's $700 in hardware, the $4,000 installation charge is split halves.  The contractor gets half and he doesn't do much work for it either since he's already installing wall switches and such in the house.  A switch is a switch is a switch.  He loves you.

Then there's ongoing maintenance and programming.  Charge per-incident.  You figure that one out, but whatever you charge for this it has an extremely high operating margin..

The consumer who has this in their house gets real-time, SSL-secured, "works anywhere" video on their phone, in real time, along with real-time monitoring and control limited only by his or her imagination and desire to put the "touch points" in the house -- and nearly-infinitely customization to suit their individual desires without writing a single line of code.  Individual user access control including multiple accounts, passwords and access permissions (e.g. your kid can see their room and maybe the family room's controls, but not your bedroom lights) is of course provided.

What do we got here?

Each installation has an up-front revenue to you of $2,300 and an annuity stream of $240/year.  This includes upgrades of the software (you could also sell it without that, say for $120 or $150 up front but then charge $100 per major upgrade.  Which works better?  You decide; Adobe thinks the $20/month model wins, and I think they may be right!)

In five years that's $3,500 gross, the install revenue has perhaps $250 worth of embedded cost in it (your time to do the original setup and programming, which is not hard) and the annual recurring has administrative (collection and payment processing) expense along with a very small amount of infrastructure spend for the license server.  Call it $20/account in operating cost; you can bill hourly if you are needed to do programming changes and such.

That's nearly an 85% pretax operating margin -- of course that's before you pay your people to do the administrative and similar work.  But can you get into the 30-40% pretax operating range on a forward basis?  I bet you can if you're any good at running a business.

Is that a bit rosy?  Maybe.  But maybe not.  Put 10,000 homes in like this across the country (there are 1.3 million new homes annuallyin a year -- that's an 0.7% penetration rate -- and you've got close to $30 million ex salaries and SG&A.

In one year, with less than 1% penetration.  Can you do better than that on penetration?  What if you reach 5%?

Oh, and that's with zero penetration in the major rehab and teardown/gut jobs, of which there are plenty, and zero retail sales to people who want to "roll their own" with installation and operation.

I'm not real interested in setting up and running another company but these numbers might convince me to do it if someone else doesn't come snatch this opportunity from me for somewhere around one tenth of one year's rationally-recognizable margin before SG&A.  That starts looking more-attractive to me when the Obamacare penalty "black hole" (which sticks you with an ~85% effective tax rate) disappears which happens on January 1st of this coming year.

And that projection is all before a mass-revulsion event occurs for the "other guys" when the inevitable "bad things" start happening with all these "cloud connected" alternatives which both do less and cost more -- and it's a good bet they eventually will.

Oh, and we haven't talked energy savings yet.  Yeah, there's an angle there in this code too, I believe it's patentable and separable from the system itself, and it's potentially a big one.  A real big one.

Let's talk.  Look to the right.

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2018-06-05 07:50 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 96 references
[Comments enabled]  

Look folks, this one is clear.

"Can the President pardon himself?"

Yesexcept in the event of impeachment.

This is not opinion, it's the Constitution and it's black-letter.

The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.

There is no stricture that says "except upon himself."

The President may even pardon himself prospectively, exactly as Ford did Nixon (remember, Nixon had not been indicted at the time Ford pardoned him!)

The Presidential Pardon power is absolute.  A pardon cannot be rescinded once granted and it is Constitutionally legitimate to do so prospectively.

There is no legislative or judicial means available to stop it either; to do so you must amend the Constitution.  Good luck.

Now I assume that such an act would lead to immediate impeachment, and probably conviction on same in the Senate.  But that doesn't change a thing with regard to the pardon itself, which will stand.  The maximum punishment available in such a case is removal from office and a permanent bar from serving in any office of profit (personally or for money) under the United States in the future.

That's all there is.

There is no "scholarly" question here, nor one for the courts.  It's black-letter law.  If it is dishonored then the entirety of our government is a lawless band of thugs and deserves to have an immediate revolution take place.  I do not believe for one second that either the federal government or the military would back such an event, despite the preening and screaming by the loony left, which was perfectly fine with this when Ford pardoned Nixon prospectively as he had not been charged with anything at the time.

There is a question as to whether the DOJ can lay a charge against a sitting President.  There's a fairly clean argument that it cannot; that the sole remedy is to first impeach, and following impeachment then lay said charge or charges, which is explicitly contemplated and so-stated in the Constitution as well.

There are those who claim that the pardon power cannot be used to circumvent this.  Nonsense.  That which is not constrained by the black printed letters between the boundaries of the page is not constrained.  The Founders were not stupid and they expressly contemplated the potential for such an event, and wrote on it as you can see if you bother to read the actual text.  The political consequences of such an act are another matter -- they could be extreme, including the potential for civil unrest or worse, but that doesn't change a thing in terms of the actual black letter of the law.

So yeah, like it or not, a President (including this one) can pardon himself.  He might destroy the nation through the consequences of doing so, but he can do it and it is both valid and will stand.

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Bottom line: Women were lied to, scammed, screwed out of their quality of life and hundreds of billions of dollars over a period of time spanning decades.

One word that scares damn near everyone: Cancer.

And nothing gets women (in particular, although men do get it) going more than breast cancer.

It's not just the fact that it can kill you, but that it frequently also involves cutting off one or both breasts, which has a rather-severe psychological impact associated with it.  Of course the mortality aspect doesn't help things a bit and all of that drives a fear in anyone who suspects or is told they have it to do "everything possible" to prevent it from "getting" them.

But now comes the data, and 70% of women who get it receive no benefit from taking chemo.

Now to be fair the testing required to know if you're in that bucket is pretty new.  But we're talking more than 80,000 women a year who are, today, conned into taking a treatment that has no benefit for them whatsoever.

What it does do, however, every single time is damn near bankrupt you, drive health insurance costs to the moon, in a world of Obamacare it forces men to pay as well for something they have a much lower risk of contracting since companies can't "discriminate" by gender and far worse it always comes with debilitating side effects including having all your hair fall out and life-threatening complications that in some persons include severe infection and critical or even fatal organ damage.

Don't get me started on this ****.  Like damn near everyone I know someone who has dealt with cancer, because it's quite common.  None of the choices one makes when facing their own mortality is easy but it damn sure is easy for the so-called "medical profession" to prescribe something that will destroy the quality of your life for a significant period of time with the  "on-the-come" claim that it will also extend your life.

When that claim to turns out to be bull**** you have been assaulted as certainly as if you had a gun shoved in your face and were shot.  You suffered and you were robbed, and it was for a lie that made those who lied to you billions of dollars.

And you still can't find your ******n pitchfork.

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2018-06-04 13:04 by Karl Denninger
in POTD , 112 references

This unique piece is for the Arachnida lover in your life!


Email for pricing now to hang this tomorrow!  On canvas, ready to enjoy.

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