The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets
Logging in or registering will improve your experience here
Main Navigation
MUST-READ Selection:
All Gun-Banners MUST Be Forced To Answer This

Display list of topics

Sarah's Resources You Should See
Sarah's Blog Buy Sarah's Pictures
Full-Text Search & Archives
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

2018-04-11 09:23 by Karl Denninger
in Politics , 145 references
[Comments enabled]  

Ryan is apparently stepping down.

The same Ryan that has presided over the destruction of any sort of fiscal discipline.

The same Ryan that has refused to regular order for budgets and appropriations.

The same Ryan that likes to claim to have some sort of "principles" when the only one he really has is maintaining the lie factory in DC and, what's far worse, the extortion and extraction system set up by the medical monopolists (never mind others.)

May I remind you that a number of "large companies" have negative tax rates, Amazon among them.  Yet Ryan ran the horse****, along with Trump, that corporate tax rates are too high.

This was a damnable lie when firms like Amazon are literally paid by the US Government to exist.  No, that's not hyperbole, it's fact.

Not only does the firm play all sorts of subsidy games with the US Postal Service it was literally paid over $100 million in tax year 2017 by the Federal Government to be in business in the form of a negative income tax rate.

All of this didn't start with Speaker Ryan, but he has not only done nothing to curtail any of it he has expanded the theft on an insane basis, especially in the medical field.  The so-called "tax reform" could have consisted of removing the means to game those negative effective rates -- all of them -- and imposed a flat corporate tax rate.  That would have helped.  So would have The Fair Tax.

Ryan insisted on and pushed neither -- nor has TRump.

This nation is headed for a fiscal cliff that will destroy the nice, pleasant times that America has had.  If you think the partisan wrangling and hatred expressed by both sides toward the other is nasty now just wait until the entitlement checks cannot clear and interest rate expense skyrockets, forcing out that so-called "mandatory" spending.

It's coming folks, and my best guess as I've pointed out now for years places the time frame on that somewhere right around the end of Trump's first term.  The midterm elections in November will almost-certainly lead to loss of a Republican majority in The House and shaving of the small margin in the Senate.

But the real bloodbath -- and it has a decent chance of being the true sort of bloodbath rather than just the political type, will arrive when the gap between tax revenue and spending blows out dramatically in the next few years and the government is forced to chop the checks.

At the same time we are playing "wag the dog" right here and now, which has a very real possibility of blowing up in our face -- literally.

Got SPF 50,000 sunscreen "just in case"?

But even if you don't need it you better start thinking and acting to deal with the inevitable fiscal collision that will occur within the next few years.  Not decades in the future, not even one decade in the future -- but likely during this Presidential term.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 

2018-04-11 08:54 by Karl Denninger
in Banking System , 144 references
[Comments enabled]  

It's simple, really.

Banks have a government-granted monopoly on credit creation.

This ought to come with a strict non-discrimination requirement -- that is, they must serve every legal business and every consumer engaged in a lawful transaction, without exception.

So both Amalgamated and Citibank must lose their charters.  Add Bank of America to that too.

Now.

If they don't?

Then the people of this nation are entirely justified in calling for and maintaining derivative boycotts against every single one of their commercial customers.

Direct, intentional violations of the 2nd Amendment, which is clear and says shall not be infringed must not be tolerated.

May these "banks" be utterly destroyed.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 

2018-04-11 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in International , 167 references
[Comments enabled]  

Well well.

It seems that Xi can actually perform arithmetic.

China tried to play "tough guy" in trade with threatening tariffs on $100 billion in US imports and ran into a problem -- that's just about all the imports that there are!

Meanwhile the US imports far more from China.

Further essentially none of what we import is necessary.  Oh sure, China could try to get nasty about rare earth metals, for example, but we have an answer to that -- we have lots of them, but they're mothballed due to thorium being contained in the same mines.  A bunch of screaming-harpy "proliferation" folks managed to do that, which for reasons I've pointed out before is stupid -- while thorium isn't proliferation proof  it is quite proliferation resistant because the fissile material it tends to produce contains isotopes that cause serious problems for anyone trying to make weapons -- but are of no importance at all to someone simply interested in energy production.

Not only could we cut that stupid out quite-easily we could then use the thorium as I've advocated for years, and in fact spent a whole section in Leverage on it, as it's the singularly most-accessible means of adding real nuclear energy output to the American energy picture and becoming independent of foreign fossil fuels permanently at the same time.

I've written repeatedly on this with arguably the most-comprehensive article on-point being here.

The other side of this, however, is that much of what China imports is necessary.  Specifically, food.  Historically-speaking food shortages have a nasty record of producing riots, civil unrest and worse.  Simply put empty bellies motivate people to pick up weapons and use them on the ruling class when said empty belly can be blamed on those rulers.

Then there's the potentially-larger problem for Xi as well -- China's credit situation is already massively over-levered and arguably on the verge of blowing up all on its own.  Screw the public's ability to eat and the odds of their banking system going prompt critical is very high.  That's very bad for the rulers (and those privileged by them) as well.

So for those who claimed "China won't blink", well, he just did.

But don't take this as being all that positive.  It's not.  The so-called "concessions" are tiny compared to the abuses; addressing a couple of percent of an issue doesn't move the needle.

The market loves it, but as usual it's put exactly zero scale into the evaluation -- although it should.

I'm not only skeptical I see this as nothing more than handing a barking dog a steak laced with rat poison.  I suspect that Trump is too smart to eat it but the stock market was more than willing to gobble it all up.  The most-important take-away, in other words, isn't the materiality of the concessions -- rather it's that all those who claimed China would "not blink" and that their "pride" made the use of the tariff card unwise or even counter-productive are and were dead flat wrong.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 

2018-04-10 20:08 by Karl Denninger
in Foreign Policy , 226 references
[Comments enabled]  

Here it comes....

Syria probably did use chemical weapons.

But is "probably" good enough for a shellacking?

Doesn't matter... looks like they're about to get it.

Oh, by the way, would someone explain exactly what gives us the authority to toss bombs at a sovereign nation that hasn't attacked us?  I mean it's not like we go take out seriously evil *******s when they shove a million innocents in the hole in 100 days, right?  (Rwanda, 1994.)

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 

2018-04-10 18:16 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 120 references
[Comments enabled]  

Read carefully:

MIAMI (AP) — Hundreds of students have walked out of their Miami high school to protest gun violence after four current or former classmates were shot off campus.

So let's make this clear:

1. The shootings had nothing to do with school.  It occurred over the weekend at an apartment complex.

2. It was probably gang or drug-related.  Most shootings of this sort are, and this specific apartment complex was tagged by AP as being in a neighborhood where such is common.  Indeed a plurality of all gun homicides are drug or gang-related -- not related to so-called "assault weapons", riles or schools at all.

3. One of the "students" (in a blue hoodie) appears to be smoking a jointwhich is not legal in this state and further isn't legal for an under-21 person in any state.  NEVER MIND THAT SINCE THE SHOOTING IS PROBABLY GANG OR DRUG RELATED THAT STUDENT IS DOING EXACTLY WHAT LEADS TO THE VIOLENCE IN THE FIRST PLACE -- FUELING THE ILLEGAL DRUG TRADE, THE GANGS THAT SUPPLY IT AND THUS THESE SHOOTINGS.

And finally, said students are demanding mass-murder, as I've explained in my previous post; for those who haven't viewed the video have a look here:

AGAIN, THIS IS THE QUESTION YOU MUST DEMAND THESE "STUDENTS", INCLUDING MR. TOKER AND EVERYONE ELSE WHO SUPPORTS THEIR POSITION, ANSWER:

IF YOU ARE AGAINST HOMICIDE WHY ARE YOU ADVOCATING FOR AND IN FACT INSISTING ON MILLIONS OF MURDERS -- SPECIFICALLY, THE MURDER OF EVERYONE WHO SAYS "NO" TO YOUR DEMAND TO VIOLATE THE UNITED STATES CONSTITUTION?

View this entry with comments (opens new window)