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FACT: Masks against Covid-19 do not work becasue under the laws of physics they can't and both governors and mayors have and continue to kill your grandfather for political reasons.
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2020-06-21 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 1612 references
[Comments enabled]  

Why does Fauci think that people "don't trust" science and refuse to listen to authority, as he recently said?

Is it because he, personally, has participated in a lie along with Trump and the media, and so have you?

Oh, and he still is participating in and promoting that lie -- for example:

He also defended the stay-at-home orders as having saved "millions of lives," and drew attention to anti-science bias and the disproportionate impact the virus is having on the black community.

That's an admission of a lie -- in print.  When you're an alleged scientist you only get one.  As soon as you lie the first time everything else that comes out of your mouth is no longer entitled to be treated as "science" since science never includes lies.

Let's recap.

The original statement with Trump's "15 days to slow the spread" was was clearly stated in the title of the action:

It was intended to flatten the rate of infections; nobody made any claim originally anywhere that we could actually prevent infections.

That's because you can't prevent a highly-mobile, aerosol-spread virus that is materially infectious from non-symptomatic individuals from spreading through the population.  For an infection that is not materially infectious unless you're symptomatic you can successfully, given enough effort, trace and quarantine people before they infect someone else, but for any agent that is infectious before symptoms become apparent it's flat-out impossible to do once the first few infected people get into the population at-large; you will miss too many potential transmissions and some of them will occur.

A slowed infection rate does not prevent any infections at all; it simply spreads them over time.  If that prevents Joe with a heart attack from finding a full hospital and thus he lives where he would otherwise die then that might be worth it.

But that's what we were trading off; we were never trading off infections and deaths from the virus itself.

In the context of deaths note that approximately 2.7 million Americans die every year from various causes.  This is the lens through which we must process all claims of death "from" or "with" this virus.  A 5% or 10% increase in said death rate is bad, but it's not catastrophic.  Second, we must separate out the pulled forward deaths from caused deaths -- that is, those that occur now but were going to occur in the next couple of months anyway versus those that occur years or decades before they otherwise would.  And third, we must face our personal responsibility when it comes to the ability to change outcomes for ourselves.

During my April 28th podcast (fast forward to about 7 minutes if you don't want to listen to the whole thing) I pointed out for what was probably the 10th time since I have started covering this virus as a journalist that any expectation of permanent immunity has no scientific basis whether through infection or vaccine when it comes to coronaviruses.

This in turn means that the lockdowns and screaming Karen nonsense is stupid; we are all going to get the bug and after a year or so we can all probably get it again!

There is nothing we can do about that and there never was once we let it through our border, which was inevitable given that even today in the face of this pandemic we have refused to slam closed the border with Mexico, among others.  Only 100% isolation with a hard 14-day quarantine for anyone entering into the United States for any reason whatsoever had any possibility of working to stop the virus from getting in here and exactly nobody from either side of the aisle was willing to do that, even though Trump did have the authority to do so.

For those who think any lesser action would prevent the virus from getting "out of control" may I remind you that there are tribes that have essentially no outside contact in the Amazon that have had this bug rip through them.  How'd they get it?  Do you really think we can do better at preventing transmission than a nearly-100% isolated small group of individuals living off the land?  Never mind that very same model -- complete isolation -- was attempted with the Spanish Flu pandemic on multiple island nations and failed.

Further, "eradicating" the bug is, in the context of history, impossible.  There are exactly two viruses we have eradicated in the history of mankind and only one infected humans.  That's right -- the count is two.  This will not be #3.  Beyond the statistics there is the fact that to eradicate a virus you must not only stop all transmission you must also get rid of all repositories. Given that this virus can infect felines, ferrets and other animals forget it folks -- eradication is not going to happen.

We all have to deal with the reality of this bug as I have pointed out since this began: We have a large degree of personal control when it comes to outcome and personal risk of infection, but very little when it comes to exposure.  Your best personal mitigation with regard to infection is lots of hand-washing with soap and water.  Sanitizers are next to worthless; better than nothing, perhaps, but not much better.  When I see them sitting on the bar and the restroom is right around the corner the person who grabs one that was just touched by someone else likely increased their risk of infection!  But even with the most-fastidious hand-washing unless you are going to avoid all contact with any surface or person and never get within 100' of anyone under any circumstance your ability to avoid infection is simply not going to be good enough.

Masks on a "mass basis" among the population when worn for material periods of time by unskilled individuals are next to worthless and may even make infection more likely rather than less.  This is science, not conjecture.  Consider the following when it comes to any sort of filtration media -- including masks.

  • Filters by their nature trap and thus concentrate that which they filter.  Your oil and air filter on your car trap dirt and such in the oil and air your car engine uses, respectively.  If you remove the air filter in your car, or the cabin filter for your car's AC system, or for that matter the air filter in your HVAC unit in your house, you will notice that after a while it's quite dirty.  You can see the concentration of dirt in the filter where in the air you cannot; that's inherently how a filter -- ANY FILTER -- works.

  • Contact with the media where the filtration has taken place exposes you to hundreds or thousands of times more of whatever is filtered than exposure to the raw air or fluid.  The average person "at rest" has a respiration rate of about 15-20 breaths per minute and double that or more under any sort of exercise.  This means that in 1 hour of "mask wearing" you have concentrated whatever was in the environment and went through the mask into and out of your lungs by a factor of 600 and should you come into contact with the exterior of that mask your hands now have 600 times whatever was in the air, on an average basis, on them as well.  In addition the inside of the mask has 600 times whatever was in one average breath on it too so if you had something in your lungs while in the room or outside air it would either dissipate or settle to the floor on the inside of the mask it has instead been concentrated by that same 600 times!

  • Filters that are not dense enough to trap all of the particles or which do not fit with a 100% seal bypass some of what is to be filtered through them and deposit some of that around the area of the filter and on the other side of the media.  This same concentration effect occurs with those particles as well!  For a "cloth covering" such as a bandana or other similar item the level of bypass in both directions and thus the immediate concentration and danger from same is extraordinarily high.  A mask that "leaks" around the edges will concentrate and deposit on your face around said edge anything in your breath where it can and will be, once again, picked up your hands.

How many of the screaming Karens have ever gone skiing?  Do you wear a ski mask while doing so?  I do; I don't like the prospect of frostbite or windburn and the purpose of said ski mask is to mitigate that risk.  How nasty does the part of it covering your mouth and nose become over the space of a few hours while protecting your mouth and nose from frostbite?  Very.  In fact that ski mask is likely a damned biohazard when you get done for the day; it sure smells like it!  You know what that odor is?  Bacteria.  In other words, germs.

In exactly the same way that bandana or mask over your face is contaminated to an insane degree and as soon as you touch it which you have to do to adjust it or remove it, since it's permeable which means the vapor in your breath along with whatever might be in it migrates freely from one side to the other, you just contaminated your hands and anything you touch at a rate several hundred times more-severely than were you to just breathe!

In other words not only do masks not work since they are rarely fitted properly and remain so over their time in use nor are the people using them ever going to practice proper procedure when donning, doffing and adjusting them they are likely to concentrate both any germs you have and those of everyone around you dramatically and, by a factor of hundreds or moreincrease the concentration of contamination of your hands and face and from there you will infect both yourself and others through either personal or surface contact.

The surgeon wears a mask because during the operation he might infect you otherwise.  But that risk is specific to you and the source is specific to his lungs, nose and mouth as the air in the room is at least allegedly supposed to be sterile along with everything else in the room and so are his hands and arms, which he has scrubbed and once having done so he does not touch his face or said maskwhen he leaves the OR he can't infect you anymore and the nurse he sees outside in the hall isn't particularly at risk.  His doffing and donning procedure are well-practiced and work (except when he blows it, and said people in the hospital do frequently -- 100,000 Americans a year die from hospital-acquired infections!) for the specific purpose of attempting to protect you.  The same is entirely inadequate to protect everyone else in the building which is why despite having masks and so-called procedures to prevent cross-infection health care workers and those in nursing homes got hammered by this bug; said masks did nothing to stop it because, by the science, without strict protocols which were not enforced and still aren't being enforced today they couldn't!

This is not only science it's obvious science and you can prove it to yourself by going and having a look at your home HVAC unit's filter.  Pull it out and have a look at it.  In short the screaming Karen nonsense about masks is unsupportable by actual science, that's trivially proved and everyone in so-called "authority" pushing same knows it.

So what can you do to actually change the risk of infection and outcomes for you personally?

Realistically, only the following:

Wash your damn hands frequently with soap and water.  DO NOT USE SANITIZER AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO HANDWASHING; it's nearly worthless AND the last person to touch the container may have contaminated the container making it worse than doing nothing

and

Get into the best physiological condition possible given what we know has a major impact on outcomes so when you get infected (not if) you have a mild case instead of getting severely ill or dying.

YOU HAD FIVE MONTHS TO GET YOUR ACT TOGETHER WITH REGARD TO YOUR PHYSIOLOGICAL CONDITION FROM WHEN I FIRST RAISED HELL ABOUT THIS -- NOW YOU HAVE THREE MONTHS AND THIS BUG IS NOT GOING AWAY.

WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO LIVE WITH IT INTO THE INDEFINITE FUTURE WHETHER WE LIKE IT OR NOT.

You've squandered nearly half of that time to the fall, when flu season will kick up once again bitching about masks and lockdowns, neither of which will eliminate this virus or materially change your risk of getting it.

Squander the rest if you'd like; it's your call and your potential death being toyed with here.

You're likely going to get this bug.  I'm likely going to get this bug.  I may have already had it in January and my antibody response was either too low to be detectable or by the time I could scrounge up an antibody test it had already waned to below the threshold that registers "positive."

The so-called "experts" all told you this at the outset before Covid-19 was turned into a political football.

The facts didn't change; viruses don't give a crap about politics.

In addition we knew in February and early March that there was some form of cross-immunity.  We knew this because two people in the same 10x10 cabin on a cruise ship, quarantined together, where one gets sick and the other does not is implausible yet it happened in multiple cases.  Both people share the same air supply, neither can isolate from the other, they're a married couple and there's no way to avoid inhaling what the other exhales.  For a virus extruded in the breath of someone who has it you're going to get exposed if in the same confined-space room for a long enough period of time.  Period.  Yet the second person neither had antibodies or active virus.  Therefore they were immune, period, but we do not know why.  We do not know what percentage of people are immune due to said cross-immunity nor can we test for it since we have no idea what specific antibody or combination of them produces that immunity.  We still don't know what the cross-immunity antigens are and we've spent exactly zero effort trying to find them which is outrageous given that some or all of them might be entirely-benign bugs such as those that produce nothing more than an ordinary cold.

We still have reason to believe that anything that tampers with ACE/ARB in the body is dangerous.  If you still are using aspirin and naproxen for various maladies when you have an alternative or don't really need it given what's known in this regard you're nuts.  I'm not a big fan of acetaminophen (Tylenol) given the risk of liver toxicity (small but real) however it certainly appears to be safer than the other two in that regard.  If you're on any of the various prescription drugs that are all considered "very safe" but which modify those aspects of physiology given what we know about how this virus invades the body in my opinion you're crazy unless there are no other good substitutes that your doctor can prescribe and the risk of death from not being on them exceeds the risk of death due to coronavirus.

huge percentage of American adults are fat and virtually everyone who is fat is also insulin-compromised.  The data says that newly-diagnosed or uncontrolled diabetics have extraordinarily higher risks of serious complications or death from Covid-19; someone who is a long-term diabetic and has it under good control (their A1c is <6.5) has a much more-moderate but still-higher risk.  Are you overweight or obese?  That is 100% within your ability to change and from the first day you get the fast carbs out of your diet your insulin and glucose profile improves.  You've spent two months bitching instead of changing what goes down your pie hole when doing the latter can materially change the risk of you becoming severely ill or dying.

We have learned over time that this virus in many ways is like polio.  Likely in more ways than we're admitting, since the correlations still lie with fecal:oral transmission being a primary vector for Covid-19 yet exactly zero people are talking about that even though it has been scientifically proved to not only show up individually in people's feces when infected but MIT has detected the virus in municipal sewage flows which is very solid evidence that this is not an isolated or rare occurrence -- and that it is likely a massive transmission vector.  I remind you that polio, which is almost-exclusively transmitted via feces, has an R0 of FIVE.  Any bug that expresses in feces, from a historical standpoint, has proved to be extraordinarily contagious.  ****-eating, in short, is a great way to get sick and the rate of accidental ****-eating is astounding.  I pointed to this when the virus first appeared as a likely vector and not only has there been zero evidence to change my mind all of the evidence points toward reinforcing this vector as a primary means of transmission.

Like polio a significant percentage, in fact most people who get it have a mild or modest flu-like illness and recover without further incident.

Like polio some percentage develop a secondary profile of infection that does them serious harm or kills them.

In polio's case those who get the secondary profile suffer an attack on their nervous system and are either killed or paralyzed.  In Covid-19s case that secondary attack appears to come in the form of a vascular disease and attacks the blood and circulatory system, with the most-common characterization being immune system dysregulation (e.g. cytokine storm.)  Attempting to treat low oxygen perfusion numbers (SpO2) with intubation fails to work for that reason; you're treating the wrong thing, you wind up causing additional trauma to the lungs, you're further stimulating an already-overactive and dysfunctional immune response by intubating the person and you kill them as a result.  We knew that intubation didn't work in February and early March yet we "demanded" tens of thousands of ventilators at the cost of billions of dollars and killed a huge number of people by using them -- and both Republicans (including our President) and Democrats (e.g. Cuomo) participated in and caused this mass-manslaughter.  Trump in fact bragged about his "ventilator surge" last night.  That was asinine and we knew vents didn't work for this condition right up front yet we did it anyway.  People should go to prison for that outrage; it is likely that a third of all who died and perhaps more were killed by the doctors and hospitals through this known-worthless "treatment", not the virus.

Just recently we had "breathlessly reported" that a common and inexpensive steroid was effective in a large percentage of people with severe disease who were not expected to survive.  We knew this in April; there were multiple hospitals where D-dimer abnormalities on admission were being used for Covid-19 classification because of delays in receiving test results, and yet that those patients had Covid-19 was later confirmed with near-100% accuracy.  D-dimer is a byproduct of blood clot degradation; in other words an abnormal reading is indicative of blood and circulatory disorders, not direct viral infection.  We had reports of this abnormality in publications on Promed the first week of February and in the middle of March we were discussing this very fact on my forum in threads in "The Bar."

THIS WAS KNOWN PATHOLOGY BEFORE NEARLY EVERYONE DIED YET WE KEPT SHOVING PEOPLE ON VENTS AND KILLING THEM.

There is a medical group in Norfolk (and another in California) that have developed nearly 100% effective management protocols for this disease.  They are being ignored; you will not find a single mention of them on the CDC's page.  While their protocols have evolved somewhat over time the core of their recommendations and experience have not changed at all.  They're exactly the opposite of the "King of Vents" nonsense, however, and none involve anything that's expensive or experimental.  For the non-hospitalized person who knows they're positive there are also recommendations found there that you might want to take into account should you get this bug.

As I pointed out back when we first got the data on vent failure in China the goal for management of this disease in a clinical setting had to be focused on taking every possible measure to avoid using vents as the evidence was that they not only didn't work they might kill you outright.  Exactly nothing has transpired in the months since to change my mind on this.  You don't have to be a doctor to be able to read a table that shows 95% of the time a given therapy fails, and if the odds are that bad then you must be focused on avoiding the use of said "therapy" as it is likely killing more people than it saves.

As time has gone on we have continued to develop these protocols -- but note that exactly nobody is putting them forward on the "Government's" official pages.  You can bet, however, that those places having great success with infected persons not dying are paying attention -- and those which are not, well, they probably are still sticking tubes down people's throats.

After all, that's still very profitable -- isn't it?

Happy Father's Day.

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2020-06-19 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in States , 215 references
[Comments enabled]  

Some of the readers of this column have noted my commentary that I was leaving Florida.

Well, over a month ago, I did.

And, as is required by law everywhere, I changed my vehicle titles, registrations, and, of course, my Driver License.

All of these involved surrendering the former documents from Florida in exchange for the new ones.  Normal, standard procedure.  This isn't the first time I've moved between states and I've never had anything odd happen before.

Until this time.

I get in the mail a document from the Florida Motor Vehicle folks threatening to suspend my Driver License because, get this -- I canceled my car insurance.  Of course I did; car insurance is a state-specific thing and even though I didn't change companies the policy is still re-issued in the new state when you move.

It gets better.

Florida of course sent this notice to my old address, and the USPS dutifully forwarded it to me, with it arriving here about a week later.  No big deal, right?  Well, not exactly -- it's quite the threatening letter, claiming that if I don't respond with 10 days there is a $150 non-waivable "fine" to reinstate a credential that doesn't exist.

Or does it?

I go online as Florida has an online Driver License validity checker.  It shows my license is still in their system and it's valid.

Oh, and they'll only take evidence of their ****-up by fax or postal mail.  There is no online portal where you can upload, say, a copy of your registration for said vehicle in the new state.  How many people still have a fax?

Further, do you really expect me to believe that if I was traveling in Florida and got pulled over by a cop that they couldn't verify that my new state registration and driver license were both valid in seconds?  Is it that Florida can't or, is it that they don't want to?

I was tempted to tell them to blow goats but frankly, for the few bucks it'll cost me at Staples to fax them, ok, I will, never mind that if you get actually get stopped and your Driver License is marked suspended, whether accurate or not, in most states that's an instant trip to the lock-up and you cannot be bonded out until you see the Judge either.  Would I put it past Florida to stick that in their interlinked computer systems and have it flow through to another state?  Oh hell no.

Further all of this belies the utter stupidity of their systems and people because I own two cars and yet they were only complaining about one of them.  This implies they know the other title was surrendered and thus canceled.  It also implies that of the three documents in question -- two titles and a Driver License -- they only managed to correctly process one of the three.

How long would you last in private business if you only managed to handle one thing in three properly?  What if, when presented with evidence of this by the "customer" (cough-cough) instead of recognizing that you obviously ****ed up, going back and quickly checking what has to be possible for you to do right then and there while the customer is on the phone within seconds you instead pull some sort of procedural bull**** and demand the customer spend money to fix your ****-up?

Heh, I get it if there's no evidence you want some.  Ok, so make it easy to submit it -- you know, by upload or email right then and there?  When I ran MCSNet we occasionally screwed up posting payments.  Errors happen and I understand that.  If we cashed your check and you've got the canceled check in your hand well, you're right and we're wrong.  We'll figure out how we ****ed up later and try to fix it but for right now your service is getting turned back on with an apology since unless you've forged that document the error is obviously ours.

This would just be "grand incompetence" except it's actually something much worse.  You see, Florida, like nearly all states, has issued "Real ID" Driver Licenses.  I had to jump through some pretty impressive hoops when I renewed mine after that went into effect despite having had a valid driver license in the state for years.  They didn't care; I still had to bring in a certified birth certificate, Social Security card, etc when it came up for renewal so I could have that nice gold star on the new one.

Note that their online system still said, more than a month after I surrendered that license in another state, that it was still valid.

This means that someone could use it as an identifying credential to, for example........ vote.

Or they could use it to pass through security somewhere.  With a gun or a bomb.

Now I have no reason to believe there's a second copy (or more) of said license floating around.  As far as I know the only copy is the original that I surrendered and despite their computer saying it's valid its irrelevant because the actual physical ID was destroyed as it should be.  But I have no way to know and prove that, and according to Florida it's a valid identity document despite having been surrendered.

So much for so-called "Real ID" and DeSatan's Folly.

Welcome Biden in 2021 when Florida goes Blue -- if not legitimately through actual votes by actual qualified voters then through fraud enabled by gross government incompetence.

Oh, incidentally, they did eventually fix it since as of this publication it indeed now shows "expired" (huh, not surrendered?) with the correct date.  Nearly a month and a half after the fact, mind you.

PS: Multiple people I know who live in Florida still haven't gotten all, and in some cases any, of the unemployment they were entitled to.  That's their problem too, I'm sure, just like Florida sought to make this one my problem.

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2020-06-17 14:04 by Karl Denninger
in POTD , 106 references
 

 

Or, if that doesn't catch your fancy, check out her entire gallery....

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2020-06-17 09:54 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 1980 references
[Comments enabled]  

None of this is in dispute; if you have an argument to make with any of these alleged facts let's hear it in the comments, with your data source.

  • As many as half, and in some states as many as 80%, of people who have died from Covid-19 were nursing home or other long-term-care home residents.

  • Black people have a higher fatality rate for the virus than white people.  Various commentators have attempted to explain this as a race-based difference in health care access, although no such evidence actually exists (e.g. in KY, where the Governor has announced an explicitly racist and thus unconstitutional program to "cover all black people" with health insurance -- a program based on ethnicity and thus constitutionally impermissible.)  However, black people also have a higher attack rate than whites, which cannot be explained by any alleged difference in health-care access.  Obviously, if you are attacked at a higher rate given the same percentage of bad outcomes more of that group on a numerical basis will have bad outcomes.

  • Meat-packing plant workers have a materially higher attack rate than non meat-packing workers.  Said workers are also over-represented, by a lot, among Hispanics.

  • Said meat-packing plant and other agricultural workers, however, have a lower fatality (bad outcome) rate than among the general population in places such as New York.  And not by a little either -- by a factor of 10 or more.  That's well beyond statistical significance.  Indeed the CFR among these groups are in the low tenths of one percent.  That's in the realm of ordinary seasonal flu.

  • Japan controlled their outbreak without lockdowns.  People like to point to "mask-wearing" but are ignoring the 900lb Gorilla in the room when it comes to Japan and South Korea -- about 3/4 of all homes have bidets.  The percentage of homes in the US with a bidet is an effective zero.  (I have one and like it; among other things it dramatically reduces the use of TP, so my one roll of consumption is your three or five rolls!)  Use of a bidet, however, absolutely reduces the amount of feces contact with a toilet user's hands by a huge factor -- probably to 1/100th or less than a user of a toilet without one, since it washes nearly all of the feces off your butthole and into the toilet before you get off the pot.  This dramatically reduces the risk of fecal:oral transmission of any bug at the source and thus should be expected to dramatically reduces infection rates.

  • South Korea controlled their hospital transmission without extreme PPE measures. Their solution?  Militant hand-washing in health care facilities; before entry to and at exit of every room and after contact with any potentially-contaminated person or surface.  That step alone cut the transmission to health care workers to nearly zero.  This was known in March.  We are still seeing crazy-high transmission in health-care workers in the United States, especially in nursing homes and other care facilities (ITC homes for disabled people, etc.) in the United States and we have not instituted said militant hand-washing standards here.

  • Homeless people appeared at first to not get the virus at all.  This made absolutely no sense and I talked about it at the time as a major confounding piece of data; I could not explain the apparent lack of infections.  Subsequently, serology and mass-testing of shelters later proved that in fact damn near all of said people tested were in fact positive for either antibodies or the virus itself, meaning virtually all of them either had it or have had it.  We originally thought they didn't get it because they didn't get sick!  But they sure did get the virus -- they just didn't get sick enough from it to require medical attention.  I note that "getting the virus" but not getting sick is good, not bad.  In fact it's very good not just for you but for everyone around you; provided you get some amount of immunity out of that the benefit to the general public is considerable.  Among said homeless people nearly zero of them have died of Covid-19.

  • Prison populations continue to report extremely high attack rates and yet again post near-zero serious case and fatality rates.  Note that prisons and jails universally have the toilet in the cell and thus fecal/oral contamination via surface contact is going to be extremely easy with no possible way to control it.  We keep seeing huge "bursts" of reported cases in various states which are prisoner test batches that show up all at once -- yet what we don't see are prisoners dropping dead or ending up in the ICU with the bug.  Note that incarcerated individuals are materially more likely than the general population to have lived an extraordinarily unhealthy lifestyle prior to incarceration, including drug and alcohol abuse.  Therefore you would expect them to have much higher mortality statistics from Covid-19 than the general population but this has yet to occur on a systematic basis in the United States.

  • Native Americans appear to have extremely high attack, severe disease and death rates.  Arizona is the poster child for this problem but is by no means alone; they just happen to have entire counties where a huge percentage of the population is Native American due to the presence of large reservation areas within same.  The net-positive test rate among NE Arizona counties in particular is astounding on a comparative basis.

  • Protesters don't get it either despite ignoring "social distancing" writ large and often or even usually ignoring masks too.  Never mind that if you're gassed by the cops you cough like a son-of-a-bitch so if you have anything now so does everyone within 20' of you.  The transmission rate should be much higher than the statistical average for everyone in the state if gathering together in close contact for hours at a time without masks transmitted the bug.  The data says it does not; their positive rate of 1.4% is less than half the index rate (average) of 3.7% in the state of Minnesota.

  • Delaying infection does not prevent it.  Remember that flattening the curve mantra?  That's delay.  The area under the curve (number of infections) remains the same but is simply spread out over more time.  Now suddenly that people are still getting infected results in screaming when this was not only a known outcome it was the expected outcome.  Has the collective IQ of Americans dropped below their shoe size?  It appears the answer is a resounding YES!

Note that exactly nobody pressing the racissssssss! screaming is accounting for any of this.  Until and unless we cut the crap with that intentional suppression of logical analysis we shall never get to the facts.  There are very important epidemiological facts in this data and in fact there are likely pathways to suppression of severe outcomes from Covid-19 to below the nuisance level found therein.

Exactly where they lead and how you get there isn't yet known but a number of hypothesis are all reasonable given this set of facts and if we are going to actually make progress with this or any other disease we must look at said facts dispassionately, especially where you have high attack rates in what you would expect are seriously-compromised and high-risk population segments and yet those cases occur with few to nearly-zero severe or fatal outcomes.

Remember that HIV was treated in exactly the same sort of "social justice" fashion and we shoved a half-million Americans in the hole as a result.  Almost-certainly at least half of those people did not need to and should not have died.  They died because we refused to analyze the data we had and go where it led us, instead "protecting" those who claimed that butt****ing was not only a civil right but also that nothing which called into question the dangers of doing so was to be admitted into public discussion and debate.

Ok, so what hypothesis can we form?

  • Attack rate is highly-correlated with housing density in a given unit of housing.  That we now know and it explains the higher black attack rate, the higher meat-packing employee attack rate, the higher nursing/LTC home attack rate, the higher reservation attack rate and the higher homeless shelter attack rate.  It also explains the higher attack rate in places such as Wuhan China even though I believe exactly zero of what was reported out of the Chinese without hard, independent proof.  All those populations have much higher housing densities than the average white American household.

  • Adding a bidet that goes on a toilet at the mounting point for the seat costs about $50.  Adding one to every American home and apartment could have been done for a billion dollars, roughly, and likely would have cut transmission rates by a monstrous amount at less than a thousandth of the cost of the economic damage we have incurred.

  • The lack of indoor plumbing and sanitation massively correlates with attack rate.  Witness the NE corner of Arizona; many reservation dwellings have no septic system or running water.  How do you wash your hands with soap and water without running water?  How do you remove feces from your hands after defecating?

  • Close contact, with or without masks and even in large groups where you are in such a group for hours at a time, but where personal hand-to-hand or hand-to-object-to-hand contact does not occur does not, statistically, appear to transmit the virus as the correlation with the protests is inverted.  This is not a singular event either; remember that despite tens or even hundreds of thousands of spring break revelers partying in Florida in March the total number of cases traced to same numbered five.  Remember that while correlation does not prove causation the lack of correlation reliably excludes a causal relationship.  So much for continuing to ban large groups (e.g. sports fans, political rallies, etc.), limiting capacity in theme parks, restaurants, bars, etc. -- and requiring masks for the general public in any circumstance.

  • At the same time the places where groups of cases have occurred all correlate with the potential for fecal:oral spread.  There is a just-reported set of cases linked to a Jacksonville bar in Florida.  How is their hand-washing protocol in that place?  It just takes one bartender who used the bathroom, didn't wash his or her hands, and then handled all the glasses served to those individuals while filling them.  The same is true for the communal transmission reported earlier among a family that had a large gathering where shared dishes were served and at the church in South Korea with a symptomatic individual which practiced close, personal hand-based contact.  At the same time groups of hundreds of thousands "protesting" in close proximity, in fact at "personal contact" distance for hours at a time don't get it.  This is very solid evidence that it is manual transmission via the hands, likely fecal:oral -- and not airborne -- that is occurring.  In short: WASH YOUR DAMN HANDS AND NO, HAND SANITIZER IS NOT AN ADEQUATE REPLACEMENT.
     
  • Severity of outcome is very highly correlated with (1) obesity, (2) diabetes, and (3) the use of ACE/ARB modulating pharmaceuticals to control various morbidity factors.  The latter was attempted to be "disproved" by a now-withdrawn study that was shown to have possibly-intentionally corrupted data.  Note that among homeless people you have a lack of all three yet you also have rampant alcoholism, which one would expect to lead to very severe compromise and bad outcomes -- but the data says it doesn't.  Native Americans are also notorious for severe alcohol abuse which would lead one to believe there's a correlation there but the extremely high prevalence of same among homeless people who have almost zero severe Covid outcomes argues strongly against that being a co-factor in severity of result.

  • Age is not, standing alone, a material mortality factor in this disease.  New York's death data proves this; there is no specific correlation with age to death rate.  A shockingly-low number of New Yorkers of seriously advanced age without any of the listed morbidity factors have died.  It's not being old that gets you -- it's being unhealthy in specific, discernable ways.

  • Attack rate is very highly correlated with the likelihood of fecal/oral transmission vectors being in play.  Nursing homes have an extraordinary prevalence of incontinent individuals in them and avoiding cross-contamination when someone has a diaper on is extremely difficult.  The more people in a given housing unit the harder this is to control as well, and the presence of high-pressure institutional style toilets radically raises the risk of expulsion of fecal matter onto both surfaces and into the air.  Lids do not stop the former, in fact they concentrate it.  We knew this was likely at-issue early on in that protocols in Asian hospitals were changed very quickly to require assiduous hand-washing routines and as soon as that was implemented cross-transmission to and between health care workers went to an effective zero, even without masks!  This also explains how Japan was able to control their outbreak without shutting the economy down -- most of their private homes have bidets which dramatically reduce the risk of fecal/oral transmission in private homes by materially reducing the amount of feces a person's hands can come into contact with.

  • There are no long-term care or nursing home facilities and damn few hospital beds or units that can, today, in their present configurations, control for the transmission risk of a highly-mobile fecal/oral bug, especially if the focus remains on "masks and gloves" instead of the manual removal of potential contamination from one's hands after any and all contact with any item or person that might be contaminated.  Again, we knew this in MARCH and have completely ignored it.  The willful and intentional failure to address this protocol is negligent homicide by the tens of thousands of counts.  There is not one governor nor health director in any of the 50 states who has addressed this fact nor have any been held accountable.

  • The fact that homeless people get this virus on a nearly-universal basis yet almost none of them get seriously ill or die of it is extremely powerful data.  In fact, within that, plus the prison population and meat-packing house data, is likely a key to exactly why, statistically, people get severe cases of this bug rather than benign ones and ultimately expire from it.  This is especially true when one considers that both prisoners and homeless people have a much-higher than general population prevalence of seriously-unhealthy behaviors including most-specifically alcoholism and serious drug abuse, both of which are severely immunosuppressive.

Through all of this we can find truth -- if we care to.

We don't care to.

We won't hold NY accountable, for example, for obvious intentional medical homicide in that they have one quarter of the deaths in America from Covid-19 but only six percent of the population of the country.  That's a 400% over-representation and is flat-out outrageous.  We know, for example, the state forced Covid+ persons into nursing homes; that's not an accident, it's intentional.  And there are allegations that NY intentionally left potentially or known-Covid+ patients outside of isolated areas in hospitals. Britain, by the way, has admitted that 20% of their infections were nosocomial -- given to people by the hospital.  What's our percentage and why isn't that reported?  Exactly zero of those infections and deaths are acceptable nor can they be charged to the "virulence" of the virus; by definition those are medical incompetence at best and manslaughter at worst.

There is in fact a pretty-clean argument to be made that bolting the door of every hospital instead of admitting potential Covid suffers might well have resulted in less death!  Think about that for a minute: There is a clean argument to be made that our medical system resulted in a net positive change in the death rate from this virus; we would have been better off in terms of dead bodies to tell people to go pound sand and tough it out at home!

We have not, several months in, stopped transmission in and through nursing homes and other long-term and intermediate care facilities.  Every single state still has a problem in this regard.  The number of transmissions in and between nursing home (and other residential care facility) residents and staff at this point should be a statistical zero yet it is not in any state.  This is hard evidence that the overhwelming focus on mask-based PPE is and will remain ineffective.  Anywhere from a third to a half of all who have died of this bug were in such homes yet an effective zero of them could have contracted the virus in the community at-large since they don't leave said homes and, since the lockdowns in said places started months ago haven't been close enough to others to get the virus via personal contact with other residents; their care-givers had to be either direct or indirect vectors!

We won't take the data we have, which is that handwashing is a massive deterrent to transmission while masks out in public do little or nothing and, rather than demand "masks" in public places instead put hand-washing stations, with soap and water, outside businesses and public buildings and become absolute "nazi-like" when it comes to handwashing where personal service from one-to-many is common such as restaurant and bar staff.  We also won't do the same thing in hospitals and other care facilities.  Yet we know masks (especially when not worn properly and in combination with excellent hand hygiene, which the general public does not practice) are not a barrier to transmission but hand-washing is, and we knew this in March after a South Korean hospital stopped transmission to their staff, even when not masked, by mandating manual handwashing with soap and water before entry and exit to every patient room and after contact with any potentially-contaminated surface.  Prior that they had a huge problem despite the use of PPE, yet upon instituting that protocol their staff transmission dropped to a statistical zero.

We have a second, confirmatory data point on fecal/oral transmission from Japan which controlled their outbreak without material lockdowns of any sort and has a very high prevalence of bidet presence in private homes (~75%.)  The use of a bidet removes virtually all feces from your butthole and thus reduces by an enormous factor the potential viral transmission load from one person to another via that route.  Given the essentially "kissing" level of contact found on Japanese mass-transit (rendering a mask useless) and the same level of personal contact found in many of the recent "protests" this is further evidence that the primary means of community spread is manual, not droplet-aerosol based.  Note that South Korea, where bidets are also common, confirms this.

And finally, also adding a lot of weight to the fecal/oral transmission route as being primary, we have data from the protests now coming in that large groups congregating for hours at a time in close contact, but generally not exchanging hand-to-hand or hand-object-hand contact, does not result in transmission occurring irrespective of masks.

We have a lot of data, at this point, that strongly points to why some people get very sick, some people get nothing, and why some people get exposed but never build antibodies.  Specifically, there is also obvious cross-immunity to this bug but we don't know what it sources from.  That is the only logical reason why someone who is exposed and gets the bug, as proved by PCR test, would not develop an antibody response; the only way your body eliminates a virus is through antibody response, so if you don't build specific antibodies the only other rational explanation is that you have cross-resistance.

We have a medical system, in short, that is hell-bent and determined to find ways to make money off this disease rather than focusing on how to make people not die and we have a media that is complicit in lying about the facts and points of correlation (which suggest but do not prove causation) and the places where correlation is expected under their hypothesis but is absent, which unlike correlation does in nearly every instance DISPROVE the suspected causal factor.

Again: Correlation does not prove causation but lack of correlation DOES, in nearly every case, DISPROVE causation.  This is one of the first things you learn about in regard to statistical analysis; that which does not correlate should not be, absent hard, scientific proof, viewed as a potential causal factor.

Exactly as with HIV/AIDS they have adopted a model that increases the number of people shoveled into the hole so more money is made instead of figuring out how, at zero or very little cost, to contain and prevent transmission and under what circumstances people get it and have a severe or fatal outcome as opposed to a minor inconvenience as is the case with a common cold.

The evidence strongly suggests that the reason for the difference in outcome is both a function of cross-immunity and may, to a large degree, rest in both personal choice linked co-morbidities and commonly-prescribed and used medical interventions that are "believed to be safe" but in fact seriously potentiate infections with this virus.  The latter is strongly suggested by the data -- not proved, mind you, but very strongly suggested and in addition the modality of that threat matches up exactly with what we know about how this virus attacks the body.  Instead of running that to the ground as a public priority we instead had a study run with contaminated data that tried to discredit that which implies that scienter exists among the pharmaceutical and medical industries!  In other words, the evidence suggests they know damn well those drugs are killing people in the context of this bug and tried to cover it up.  That this didn't trigger an immediate investigation at all levels of the government and regulatory apparatus is an outrage.

I've been reporting on this since February, I nailed this vector as likely at the root of transmission in February and I've yet to see a single bit of evidence that the hypotheses that I have put forward on same, backed by the data as available at the time, has been wrong.  Then again actually resolving the issue neither makes anyone rich nor does it give you a convenient political sword to run your opponents through with, does it?

Wake up America.

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