The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets- Category [Editorial]
2018-01-03 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 199 references
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Faux Snooz -- meh meh meh meh meh....

Outrage continues to mount two days after CNN put the “J” in journalism with a marijuana-themed New Year’s Eve segment that some are already using as an excuse to smoke the Hippie Lettuce in states where it’s not currently legal.

Wow, man, people put a buzz on during New Years' Eve?

I'll see your bong hit and raise it two Bloody Mary's and a passel of beers plus a straight-up shot right near midnight, none of which was consumed in a fashion that put my over the legal limit to drive and the last of which was done right in my own home -- with my now-21 year old daughter, who also had one.

Happy ****ing New Year.

There's way more "stoning" in that than a couple of hits off a bong.

Yeah, one is legal and other isn't in Florida.  Well, gee, I decided to consume the legal one.  {{Big shock}}

Let's cut the stupid eh?  How much beer would be sold if it were all O'Douls -- by law?  How many "mocktails" are sold today compared against cocktails?  How many bars would exist if they were all "mocktails" -- by law?

There's nothing preventing anyone from ordering the O'Douls -- or the mocktail.  The latter, at least, is cheaper than the cocktail too, because there's no expensive (and taxed) liquor in it.  So why aren't they the run-away winner given that and the lack of any sort of negative problems (you know, like getting so drunk you puke?)

People buy drinks because they get a buzz, that's why.

So yeah, the #Twattersphere was all full of outrage, but spare me the horsecrap -- or send some more to our Treasury Secretary.  After all that managed to draw the bomb squad -- for a box full of horsecrap.  I'm impressed that the smell wasn't enough to give it away.

What I'm not impressed by is a plant that requires no refining to use and has no known LD-50 (that is, you can't overdose on it and die), has myriad ways of consumption that have few or no health risks, is therapeutic for a whole host of OTC-style maladies (such as migrane headaches) along with a decent number of serious conditions (like improving appetite in cancer patients) and yet we think people should go to prison for owning and consuming it.

Never mind that the comparison drug, alcohol, which is legal, kills tens of thousands a year -- both directly and indirectly.

Yeah, cry me a ****ing river, and while you're at it take Jeff Sessions and depose him to North Korea, where his infantile obsession with marijuana fits right in with the sort of autocratic crap that their government runs.

Oh wait, Trump hasn't fired him yet, and Sessions hasn't arrested anyone for stealing somewhere around $3 trillion a year via the medical scam yet either.  Yeah, they both have their priorities straight.... not.

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2017-12-31 09:46 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 471 references
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I've been harping on this more-or-less continually since 2011 -- it relates to your personal health and reliance on the health care system in the United States.

Specifically, if you look like you're pregnant and you're not (or can't be) -- let's just make it simple folks; if you stand in the shower, look straight down, and you see gut instead of genitals.....

You can ignore this (again), if you want.  But time's pretty-much up.

Trump's "tax cuts" are going to accelerate the deficit spending trend that Obama (and Bush before him) initiated.  The Fed's machinations over the last 100+ years are utterly irrelevant because all of them are in fact driven by Congress.  The Fed is a creature that operates at the behest of Congress, as a creation of Congress, and every single dollar it has "printed" it has "printed" because Congress spent money it did not have.

In other words, Congress ran a deficit.

The Fed has its share of detractors and I'm among them.  But those who refuse to place responsibility where it belongs are fraud-running jackasses, and while I'm happy to try to educate folks those who refuse to learn and cling to that which is trivially disproved mathematically wind up on my "ignore" list.

The bottom line: It is Congress, which is elected by you, that has destroyed the purchasing power of the currency and enabled all of the fraud and force in our economy today.

Every.
Single.
Bit.

Health care costs have exploded because of fraud, extortion and just plain intentional bloat.  Hiring ratios of 10-30:1 for administrators to doctors and nurses are just a start.  You pay for every one of those people but they never provide a single second of care to a single person.  This crap standing alone is strangling the economy and it's strangling the Federal Government.

Then you add onto it monopolist protections system-wide.  You can't get a price before a procedure and you can't hold someone to a price.  How much you pay has nothing to do with the complexity and everything to do with how you pay (or whether you can.)  The health system is the only form of "business" in which a hospital or physician bills you for fixing their screw-ups -- and if those screw-ups kill or permanently maim you they're "entitled" to bill you for that too.

The entire health system in this country, top to bottom, is a racketeering enterprise on grand scale, it currently consumes one fifth of all money spent in the United States, stealing at least 80% of that, and in many cases produces negative or zero net value while doing so.

The Federal Government knows this.  It also knows that if the Attorney General, Congress or the President puts a stop to it there's a monstrous recession -- in fact, from an economic definition perspective an immediate Depression will result.  It wouldn't last long and we'd be far better off when it was over but the next 12 to 18 months would be nasty and whoever is in office at the time will get blamed -- and lose their jobs.

As a result none of the people in office -- not federal, state or local -- will do it unless the public rises and demands it, making clear that there are three -- and only three -- alternatives: Do it, leave peacefully and be replaced by someone who will, or rest in pieces.

Ultimately the people of any nation have the right to issue such a demand -- but only in concert, as a body politic.  1776 was such a demand and when the answer "nuts!" came back from the British monarchy the colonists reply was "ok, since you insist in pieces it shall be."

No lone person has the right to do it (we call that terrorism) but the people as a body politic always do, provided the alternatives are laid on the table.  That's the very premise on which a representative republic is based.

Well, you won't do it.  Not collectively, or in sufficient numbers.

You'd rather get screwed on-balance.

As a result your only alternative is to not need the medical scam.

Sadly if you do need it and the tipping point comes -- which may be as early as this year, you're going to be severely hosed -- or worse, dead.

There's much more, of course -- autos, "higher" education and other areas of grift and scam (FANG-cough-cough!) but this one you can actually take some level of personal control over and thus to a meaningful degree evade.

I've written many pages on this topic, and unfortunately there are some who have enough bad luck, or have just let things go too long, for whom there is no way out at this point.  There's nothing that can be done if you're in that position.  But if you're not, and most people who are today dependent on the medical scam can make a differencethen you're running out of time -- fast.

Start reading, and start doing.

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No, this is not a call to do any such thing.

It is a recognition that this is exactly what is going to happen if there are not major changes made in public policy, right ****ing now, and the only way those will happen is if the people of this nation stand up and demand them, enforcing that demand with whatever actions are both necessary and possible.

Just the other day:

A 25-year-old California man was arrested in connection to an online quarrel between two “Call of Duty” gamers that prompted a hoax call and led to a man being killed by police in Kansas.

Los Angeles police on Friday arrested Tyler Barriss, who law enforcement claimed is the “prankster” who called 911 and made up a story about a kidnapping in Wichita, ABC 7 reported.

Barriss reportedly gave police the address he believed the other gamer lived.

In the audio of the 911 call, the caller claimed his father had been shot in the head and that he was holding his mother and a sibling at gunpoint. The caller added that he poured gasoline inside the home and "might just set it on fire."

Now let's put context on this.

The police got a phone call.  They had zero evidence to back up the veracity of that call.  Whether the call had spoofed caller ID or not (which is insanely easy to do and in fact our government has refused to crack down on that crap and demand the carriers put a stop to it which is why you get spoofed and illegal sales calls all the time) is immaterial.  The facts are that the call came from well over 1,000 miles away from the allegedly-reported "address" and the cops performed exactly zero due diligence -- which they had a legal duty to engage in -- before acting on the false report.

That caller ID is trivially spoofed is a known fact; ergo, there is no probable cause in an alleged caller ID readout standing alone.

The cops in Wichita showed up at the house and shot an unarmed man who came to answer the door.  The police, of course, claim that he "moved a hand toward the area of his waistband" as justification for shooting him.

So what if he did?

Let me remind you that:

1. He was on his own property, in his own home.

2. He had no knowledge of the "Swatting" phone call and thus no reason to expect the police to show up nor any reason to believe that anyone claiming to be "police" really were.

3. He had done nothing illegal.  While it has now been reported he was unarmed so what if he was armed?  If he had been that changes nothing.  He was in his own home and had every right to be armed, including answering the door armed as it is well-established that gang bangers can and do impersonate cops.

4. There was no probable cause or justification to shoot him -- period.

The ****ing pig who fired must be charged with Murder 2 -- homicide without premeditation but through grave, outrageously reckless and intentional conduct -- and go to prison.  Now.

The only way this crap will stop is when alleged cops who play trigger-happy *******, acting as if they have been given a hunting license to shoot humans, are treated as gang-bangers and thrown in prison each and every time they pull this crap.

They have neither legal or logical justification for their actions.

Second, the ******* who called 911 has been arrested and must be charged as an accessory before the fact to said homicide and go to prison as equally responsible for the shooting, exactly as you would be if you knowingly drove a bank robber to the bank and then that person shot a teller.  That's what the law says and it must be enforced -- period.

Finally, since this crime crossed state lines in that it was initiated in California this is a federal matter including but not limited to 18 USC 241 which proscribes a life sentence or federal death penalty if someone dies as a consequence of deprivation of their rights under color of law or authority.  Therefore both the caller and the cop must face prosecution in federal court under this statute irrespective of any state prosecution.

Until all of these things happen then it is perfectly reasonable for anyone who encounters a police officer to believe that they will be shot without any probable cause, say much less any evidence that grave risk to said officer exists because nobody can predict if someone has made a false 911 call on purpose.  It's not possible to know if you are not a party to whatever dispute leads to said call in the first place that such might happen.

Therefore until and unless the thug gang-banger who shot this innocent man on purpose and without probable cause and the person who made the false call are both held fully responsible under existing federal law for this homicide it is entirely reasonable for anyone who encounters a police officer to assume that person is an immediate and lethal threat to their continued existence and thus to act exactly as one would expect under those exact circumstances.

Should someone decide to do that, survive and be arrested, and I sit on their jury, my vote, unless these two are both prosecuted right ****ing now, has been firmly establishedNOT GUILTY.

Your move Jeff Sessions.

Ed: Updated 12/31 to correct the 18 USC reference - it's 241, not 242.  242 contains a racial requirement; 241 does not.  My apologies for the typo.

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2017-12-25 10:01 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 243 references
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First, any politician who spouts anything about Christmas in a religious context needs to be the recipient of a pile of horse**** in a gift box.  Oh wait, someone already did that with our Treasury Secretary.  It's a good start; long live the First Amendment.

Thus my first Christmas wish is that the rest of the political class get enough of these that they have to be delivered by front-end loaders.  And asteroids.

My second is that the people of this nation wake up from their toper, but I know better.  After all one need merely see "what matters" this time of year on display in every town in the country to figure that out.  Amish excepted, of course.  Speaking of which I have a special Christmas wish for Wood County, WI: May everyone in the county government get an asteroid down their chimney of sufficient size to level their house.  

I could write a little treatise as I have in prior years about how Christmas actually wound up in December -- but nobody cared in those years and won't today either.

So therefore, enjoy the day.  I won't ruin it for 'ya, but I hope you don't mind if I crack a smile at the Grump Tree I was given this year (and yes, it will look nice when planted in my yard in another week or so) as it seems rather appropriate to me.

Merry Christmas

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2017-12-22 10:17 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 591 references
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which of the so-called "exchanges" have been acting as true exchanges (that is, not attempting to insert themselves into the transaction for profit-by-arbitrage) and which have been playing bucket shop, "not really delivered" games and similar.

The opportunities for chicanery in a "market" that has a couple of thousand people controlling 95% of the float are ridiculous.  When the people who own the "exchanges" are some of those folks the opportunities are not only ridiculous they're nearly assured to be taking place, especially when there are no cops on the beat.

The government would never allow the people with any material percentage ownership of the stock outstanding to run a stock exchange.  Why?  Because there is an obvious conflict that cannot be policed or resolved.  Yet we have exactly that today with the Winklevoss twins, among others, in the crypto space.  This, in any regulated market, would never be permitted and if attempted through concealment would lead to immediate indictments and imprisonment -- for just cause.  But in a space where no such rules exist, well, why not?

In the crypto space, especially with the recent parabolic moves in price, the incentives for intentional misconduct are just too high.  The simple arb games between exchanges and the privileged position of the exchanges in terms of settlement and pricing make a nearly-impossible to resist target for such activity, especially when there's nothing like the Exchange Act that makes such illegal (never mind that nowhere near all of them are subject to US laws anyway!)

For the people running same, however, the risk is obvious -- when the worm turns what was a profitable arb turns into a monstrously losing one -- and can do so before you can react and stop doing whatever you were doing.  That which was in "float" (being gamed) at the time it happens you now eat, and if you can't absorb the loss, well..... sucks to be you, and worse, sucks to be a customer of the "you" who had your funds there and allegedly "safe."

Remember that unlike regulated brokerages and such there is no SIPC protection on these places, or any other sort of protection for that matter.  A few exchanges have taken out "insurance" against hacks (can the insurer pay?), but this is not a hack.  Does that insurance cover losses in an instance where the organization holding the funds fails and even if they are involved in something nefarious?  I don't know, but you may be about to find out.

Never mind the liquidity problem -- to sell, someone else has to buy.  To turn Bitcon or any of the other scams into dollars someone has to give you dollars for those cryptographic solution keys.  If nobody will then your Bitcons are worth exactly bupkis.

So have fun folks, because a 40% decline in price over a couple of days isn't a "dip".

It's a crash, and in a crash those who are out over the end of their skis or worse, playing games all lose their clothes in the resulting yard sale and wind up in the snow with their 2" dicks hanging out.

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