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2018-12-26 11:12 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 189 references
[Comments enabled]  

So here we are folks....

I have finally joined the team -- Twatter has determined that my telling Pelosi to **** herself with a rusty chainsaw constitutes advocating suicide or self-harm.

Really?

Ok, I removed that one despite their risible false claim.

But the purely political process involved in this firm's bull**** is on display right here, which I reproduce in full for your consideration so nobody can claim I'm "editing" things, which Twatter considered "harassment" and thus grounds for an account restriction:

 

Asking Chuck Schumer in public how he will like having a USSC nominee rammed down his throat politically violates Twatter's terms of service?

Really?

That one I appealed.  Does it matter?  Not really; I'll likely delete it.  But that's the end of my willingness to participate on Twitter, other than using it announce-only for here and compiling a list of those who display depravity (such as Chuck Schumer) as a means of IFF.

It's a long list.

This is a company that bans people for purely protected political speech and a set of advertisers that pay the company to do it. Telling a politician to **** themselves with a rusty chainsaw in response to their policies that you believe will materially harm you and others is not "advocating self harm or suicide", it is an expression of extreme disgust at their depraved behavior and is protected, First Amendment political speech.  So is asking a sitting Senator how he's going to like having a conservative Supreme Court nominee rammed down his throat via the 100% legal and appropriate political process during which he will be forced to sit back and swallow, like it or not, under the standing rules of The Senate.

As a US Citizen I am certainly entitled to political speech and such political speech is also entitled to the strongest protection under the First Amendment.  Twitter may be a "private firm" and operate a "private venue" but whether they should continue to enjoy protection from publisher liability when they engage in censorship of protected political speech is another question, especially when they continue to permit people like Al Sharpton and Linda Sarsour to parade around with clear anti-Semitic views on their platform.

This firm and everyone who works for it or any company advertising on it ought to be flat-out destroyed via any and all lawful means.  Of course nobody will lift a finger just as nobody has with the myriad privacy violations including giving away your private messages that Facebook's Zuckerpig has committed.

Enjoy the decline and bookmark the page, or use an RSS reader.

Oh, and the number of people who will raise hell with @Jack at Twitter on my behalf, since I can't at the moment?  I'll bet it's zero because nobody really gives a **** about free speech -- especially political free speech.  This will wind up being just another example going back to 2008 and the so-called "outrage" about the bailouts when, despite a circulation in the six figures as it is today we managed a whole two dozen that thought it was worth an actual protest.

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2018-12-25 01:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 247 references
[Comments enabled]  

Isn't it amusing that Twatter tags the "Christmas" hashtag with a present?

Really?  It's about commericalism, right?  Always has been, always will be, yeah, ok.

Whatever.

How's that working for 'ya, particularly when it comes to the market?  BTW we're sitting on the 200 week moving average as this goes to press.  It had better hold....

Then again why should it?  You have one half of the nation screaming "MAAAAAAGGGGGAAAA" like a bunch of screaming hyenas and the other half screaming "IMPEEEACCCCCHHHMMMENT".  Neither gives a flying **** about the security of our borders, neither cares about all the dead Americans that those illegal invaders have murdered or the jobs they've taken and nobody has one anything about it on either side of the aisle.

Reagan made a "deal" on this, if you remember.  Then the Democrats reneged.  Instead of vetoing every single bill that came after that he went along.  **** him in his grave with a stallion for that and screw anyone who thinks he was "great" beyond that point.  He was nothing more than a sellout.

How long is this sort of polarization going to go on before a bunch of someones decide that the nation is too small for all of us and one half of the country is going to have to go?  Then what?  We tried that one before and it sucked pretty bad.  Are you sure you want to do it again -- because it certainly looks like we're headed there.

The bigger issue, however, is the post-1980s insanity in the markets and Fed, all of it trying to find a way to cover up for stripping everyone in the bottom 99% of the population to their underwear and then getting them to take a screwing in exchange for a half-hearted reach-around.  Post-Volcker, to be exact.  Volcker was dealt a crap hand but you have to give the guy credit -- he actually read and understood English.  "Stable prices" means just that -- not 2% inflation, not whatever loosey-goosey thing we want -- stable prices.  And not just in things the government wants to count either -- in the cost of living as a whole.  He was the last Fed Chair who at least attempted to follow the law.  We can argue over whether he actually did it, but he at least knew what it was and professed then -- and now -- what's actually written down.

Today it's all a bad joke.  Just walk down your local street and tell me how many of the people you see will be "just fine" if the government checks -- and crazy-extortionate medical system -- fold back and disappear.  A quarter, maybe a third?  What happens to everyone else?  Oh, but it will never happen, you say.  So did the Romans, among many others.

You flunked history in High School, say much less college, didn't you?  Were you too stoned in class to remember any of what has always come when a society plays the games we're playing now and have been for the last few decades?

So here we are, with the supposed "celebration" of Christ's birth.  It's not, of course.  Historically the date is a complete rob-job.  Nobody who's ever studied anything beyond a Christian liturgical calendar can seriously believe Christ was born on December 25th.  There's plenty of evidence that the date was basically ripped off from the Roman festival of the Sun, along with other pagan traditions as a means of shoehorning Christianity into those cultures, but who cares, really -- after 2,000+ years does the actual date really matter?

Never mind that "Christmas", or Christ's Mass, no longer has much of anything to do with religious traditions at all.  Oh sure, the window dressing is there.  But tell me -- besides the two vigil masses at 4:00 and 7:00 PM this evening, and of course the three tomorrow (you do know there is a limit on the number of masses a given Priest can celebrate a day, right?  It's two on ordinary days and three on Holy Days of obligation; there are also special exceptions possible in extreme cases) what do you see around you?  Religious symbolism or Santas, "SALE!" signs and similar?

Why does NORAD -- our Federal Government -- put up a "Santa Tracker"?  Mr. funny-money Mnuchin, is that you I see?  Oh by the way what do you think the Christian faith has to say about you playing "trading places" with spouses?  Meh.

I've never liked the holidays -- even when I was a kid.  They're fake.  Never mind the routine nastiness that shows up all over the place.  I can have that any day of the year, so why make a "special effort"?  Meh.

In any event the fraud machine is unraveling fast in Trumpland and across the nation.  Then again it's not like we haven't had it coming for the last decade or so -- right Barry Soetero?  The rah-rah garbage you see on social media, along with the raw screwing therein and screaming of various folks, never mind parents parading their 11 year old children in Gay Bars in NY -- in drag -- is enough to make you retch.

This nation needs a good douche and I suspect we're going to get it sooner than later.

What better time to get a nice big fat surprise than right around the holidays when everyone's full of Eggnog and bull****.

So make a fire, have a drink, put on a movie and kick back.  Why not?

There's so little real left in this country you may as well find something smile about, even if that too is fake.

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2018-12-23 10:55 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 143 references
[Comments enabled]  

The recent "news" that a Chinese bio "engineer" had edited genes in two embryos, and they had been born and were now children, roiled the scientific community a short while ago.  The ethical issues surrounding inheritable gene edits are severe and impossible to retract after the fact, for openers.

I'll leave that debate for another column, although I have quite a bit to say on it.  Rather, I wish to talk about the stupidity of the decision to edit where he did -- specifically, an attempt to provide HIV resistance.

While this may "seem" to be a good thing it's anything but.  It has a small percentage chance of providing a real tangible benefit to the children involved over their life.  Not a zero chance, but a small chance.

What would have made a lot more sense was to repair the genetic error that makes humans unable to manufacture ascorbate.

That would have provided a huge tangible benefit.

Playing with things like this is always about risk and reward.  There is always risk.  There is also potential reward.  The trick is to not take risk without corresponding reward potential.

Partial HIV resistance has a very small chance of actually changing the path in life of a person.  Not butt****ing and not doing IV drugs has a much larger probability of resulting in an HIV+ free life than does a genetic mutation that confers partial resistance to the virus.

But our DNA defect that results in the requirement to consume ascorbate in our diets or become horribly ill and die is another matter.  That one is very real.  It also arguably results in materially different resistance to thousands of other maladies, since we know that ascobate is involved in fighting off all manner of biological insult and our inability to produce it means that the amount "necessary" to do so will invariably fall short at some point of requirements during a person's life.

Fixing that would have have profound impact.

Now don't get me wrong -- there is very real risk in doing this.  You might produce a mutagenic change that doesn't show up for a couple of generations and when it does invariably kills, cripples or otherwise harms everyone with that genetic change.  There's no way to know; genes are funny things, and do not always express immediately.  The possibility that the harmful part may lay in wait for quite some time does exist, and if it occurs it's going to be very, very bad for those offspring -- and there will be nothing they can do about it or their children.

In fact China is the perfect place for this sort of thing, since the Chinese government has no problem with simply slaughtering everyone involved should it become necessary, and they're putting in place right now the means to track every one of those people down along with all of their sexual partners so they can all be slaughtered.

Nonetheless the decision to play with HIV resistance instead of a known genetic error that hurts every human is simply stupid.

May I note that this sort of decision is what you get out of a culture and nation that steals rather than innovates.

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2018-12-20 11:32 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 635 references
[Comments enabled]  

Let's cut the crap.

Paul Ryan, in 2007, said he was going to get a handle on fiscal deficits.

Not only did he fail to do that, he made it much worse.

Donald Trump ran an actual fiscal deficit of 6.2% of GDP last year.  With rates on the TNX now at 2.77% real rates are negative, which means that policy isn't "restrictive", it's literally paying companies to do uneconomic things to boost their stock price.

Never mind the problem with housing.  The market "recovered" only because lending prices dropped by about half after the blowup in 2008.  But, look at property taxes -- they've gone parabolic.

My former residence on the North Shore of Chicago has basically doubled its property tax assessment since I sold it in 2000.  No inflation eh?  Incidentally during the crash from 2006-2008 the property tax assessment went up, not down every single year.  Did it stop there?  Nope; despite four sequential years of lower assessed values taxes went in only one direction -- up.

No inflation?  Uh huh.  I point to property taxes and health care, neither of which anyone can avoid.  If you rent your residence then the property taxes are in your rent.  Obama bailed out the health care system that was on the verge of collapse in 2008 rather than throw all the monopolists in prison where they belong.

Neither of these are reflected in any meaningful way in the way government measures "inflation" -- on purpose.

So why did the market have a hissy fit yesterday?

It's like my late sister and the market and our economy is about to suffer the same fate she recently did.

My sister had been drinking for years on "other people's money", specifically, my mother's.  Of course nobody told the truth about where the money was going; she'd never go beg mom for $50 to buy booze.  It was always gas for the (boyfriend's) car, food (well, ok, alcohol is a food if you want to get technical), the cat needed this or that, etc.  Not only did she drink (and probably drug) her more than $1,000 in disability money every month, needing to spend nothing to live in the house since it was "freely" provided by my mother, she also "begged", lied and cheated her way to well north of a thousand dollars a month more that immediately went down the hole (along with smoking, which certainly doesn't help your health either!)

Of course such a lie never works without willful blindness.  My mom knew damn well where the cash was going.  She'd deny it, but she knew.  She had to.  Only in the last couple of weeks of her life did she ever admit she knew to me -- and had all along.

Just like the markets and the pundits who claim that all this is "economic growth", "prosperity", "progress", "recovery" and similar -- not a free-money credit-fueled binge that has gotten everyone stoned out of their mind to the point that companies with negative free cash flow forever in their projections are trading in the hundreds of dollars a share and others are trading at 1,000x "earnings" and only able to attain that through massive cross-subsidization that ought to draw felony criminal indictments under 15 USC Chapter 1!

The doctors told my sister that the continued boozing and drugging would kill her if she didn't cut it out -- repeatedly, over the space of many years.

That only spurred even more attempts to beg for even more booze.

That too sounds like the stock market and crooners on the TeeVee, including people like Kudlow, right?  We have a crisis, we "can't" withstand higher rates, we "must" run 6%+ fiscal deficits, we must have negative real rates as far as the eye can see, we must buy back more shares and issue more debt, we must double real estate property taxes, we must double or more health care premiums and the key is that we must lie about all of it, telling the people that there is less than 2% inflation and that's our "mandate" even though the actual legal requirement is for stable prices and a 2% inflation rate is thus illegal and steals from everyone in the nation.

So how'd it work out?

Well, in my sister's case she and her boyfriend also trashed the house, doing severe damage.  They left casement windows open to try to hide the drug and tobacco smell leading them to be destroyed by rot, left dozens of burn holes in the carpet and their mattress (and by mere fortune didn't manage to set the house on fire and burn it to the ground!), cut holes in the bedroom door so the cats could get in and out without anyone seeing the "hoarders" game going on behind said door, had a half-inch worth of ashes and cigarette butts all over the carpet, when the light bulbs burned out instead of buying new ones they bought a 4' commercial fluorescent plug-in fixture and screwed it into the ceiling on chains and more.  Not once did the vacuum cleaner come out or any sort of housekeeping get done anywhere because gorging on the booze and drugs was more important.

Then the source of funds has happen to it what eventually happens to everyone: Mom dies.  Not badly either; one bad week at the end and at 88 years of age.  There are no tears to shed there; if you make it to 88 and have one bad week at the very end you ought to cheer, not cry.  A huge percentage of people have a nasty last year or two of pain, suffering, or worse cognitively burn and try to light their own houses on fire by accident because they forget the stove is on!  No, if you make it to nearly 90 and have one bad week flat on your back sucking on oral morphine as the cancer finally gets you it's time for your friends and family to head to the bar and have a nice celebration, not a cry-fest.

Ok, so that happens.  What does the sister do when the money spigot gets turned off because the source of funds is dead?

Blow through over a thousand dollars in five days and then text her brother while he's eating breakfast with his adult daughter crying for money because.... as she claimed, and I **** you not.... the cats had no food.

Where'd the thousand dollars go in four days?

Down the pipe.

The correct response to that is to show up at the house an hour later with a bag of Iams Adult, which is exactly what I did.

Her response was exactly what the market did when Powell said "less free money for you" -- not "no more free money", which incidentally would be an immediate Fed Funds hike to 6.25%!

She found a way to somehow get a bit more money (probably hocked something in the house), got blasted for the next several days and then had one drink too many and literally died a week later.

The market yesterday had the same sort of temper tantrum.

But guess what -- Powell didn't cut off the free money, he just told the market that instead of $50 it could only have $48!  In response to that we got foot-stomping, Cramer screaming, everyone else telling us about "policy mistakes" and that, by the way, includes our President who cried, tweeted and screamed about "listening to the market."

Well, ****heads, the market is a ****ing drug addict and it's shooting heroin and guzzling handles of cheap vodka on a daily basis -- and that's why it's so high!

AS IN STONED HIGH.

This cannot continue.  The only means to stop this bull**** is to put all the damned medical monopolists in prison.  They are what has been driving both the explosion in the fiscal deficit which I remind again was 6.2% last year on a cash, real basis and what has caused the explosion in property taxes which in turn has led to all the screaming for "zero rates" and a never-ending spigot of more and more negative-rate carfentanyl and grain alcohol!  (We're past the point where both heroin, fentanyl and vodka produce the desired result, you see.)

IF THIS IS NOT STOPPED THE PATIENT -- THAT IS THE US ECONOMY, MARKETS AND OUR GOVERNMENT -- IS GOING TO DIE.

YES, THE WITHDRAWAL IS GOING TO BE NASTY.  REFUSAL TO DO IT NOW WILL KILL US ALL.

THE ONE FINAL, LAST "TOO MANY" DRINK WILL BE TAKEN AND IT WILL BE TAKEN SOON.  EXACTLY WHICH DRINK IS THE ONE "TOO MANY" CANNOT BE DETERMINED IN ADVANCE, JUST AS MY SISTER HAD NO WAY TO KNOW IN ADVANCE WHICH DRINK WOULD KILL HER.  AS SUCH OUR GOVERNMENT AND ECONOMY MUST STOP THE BOOZING AND DRUGGING ON CHEAP CREDIT NOW, NOT IN FIVE YEARS, NOT TEN, NOT 20, NOW -- AND THE ONLY WAY TO DO IT IS TO BREAK ALL THE MEDICAL MONOPOLIES TODAY.

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2018-12-20 08:08 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 217 references
[Comments enabled]  

Donald Trump has a reality problem.

We were told we were going to get a big, beautiful wall.

That illegal immigration was going to be stopped, and that the existing illegals were going to be sent home.

That the ability to drop anchor babies would be prohibited -- if not by a change in the law or "interpretation", by stopping pregnant women from coming here, and illegals from being here where they could become pregnant in the first place.

That employers would be stopped from hiring illegal labor.

Utterly all of it was a lie.

A girl in Iowa was allegedly murdered by an illegal.  He was employed by a bigwig GOP operative in the state running a dairy farm.  He first claimed he ran E-Verify and it didn't catch the guy, but later admitted that was a lie; he did no such thing, simply checking instead whether the social security number presented had been issued to someone and not reported as "deceased." Has the employer faced charges?  No.  Has E-Verify been made mandatory? No.  Why?  Because all the "#MAGA" screaming on illegal immigration is a lie.

The girl in Iowa was neither the first or last.  Multiply-deported illegals have been implicated in hundreds, even thousands of murders, rapes and serious assaults.  Not people here illegally once, those who have been deported and returned.  Rather than criminally prosecute these people immediately we just keep "tossing them back".

The Democrats want open borders.  They want 100% amnesty, and a path to citizenship and voting for those already here.  Why?  Because they come for "free stuff" starting with free health care to be born, which is paid for by Americans, involuntarily, with a gun in their face being used to extract the money.  Yet not one American group has risen up in peaceful, general strike and told the Democrats and Republicans that this crap stops now or every single penny of tax revenue stops permanently until it does.

Trump was voted into office to, in large part, stop this crap.  He has repeatedly lied.  He has signed multiple continuing resolutions out of Congress after threatening to veto them because they didn't have wall funds in them.  None have had wall funds, he signed every one and has vetoed zero.

Now we're about to do it again.

And still, the so-called "MAGA" screamers will not stand up, will not take to the streets and will not go on strike, shutting down the inflow of tax revenue via lawful, peaceful protest until the wall goes up.

Well, **** all the MAGA hat-wearers.  You're just as much of a hypocrite as is the President.

And as much of a liar, a fact I will remember the next time you propose to transact some sort of business with me.  You prefer illegal Mexicans to Americans -- and that, my friends, is a fact.

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