... and it does not matter what the topic is.

I've written on this before but I believe it bears repeating: You can choose the basis of evaluation for virtually anything but if the outcome matters to you then there is only one acceptable decision, and that is engineering-based.

Engineering takes the current circumstances as the "baseline" and refuses to accept any path which cannot be proved to make it better, and further expects that if you represent it will be better and it isn't you lose all the money you made and if harm comes to others you go to prison.

No exceptions are allowed.

If the bridge has a sign on it that says "10 ton weight limit" provided your vehicle does not mass more than ten tons it must be safe to drive across said bridge no matter how many other vehicles are on the bridge.  The sign didn't say "one vehicle only", it said "10 ton weight limit."  The engineer who specified that has certified that provided the materials were not fraudulently sourced and that the bridge was assembled according to his stamped plans it is safe for you to drive over it with a vehicle that masses no more than ten tons.

Period.

We must apply this to all matters of public policy, particularly when we consider same to be more than a suggestion.  The NEC works this way; you can run 20 amps on 12 gauge non-metallic wire (e.g. type NM, usually called "Romex") in a house.  If the breaker is not larger than 20 amps the wire will not overheat and catch your house on fire provided it is actually the specified 12 gauge and made out of copper.  Every wire downstream from that breaker which connects between things must be 12 gauge for this reason; the breaker protects the wire and the engineering standard says that this combination will produce a safe -- that is, the wire will not overheat and catch your house on fire -- outcome.  (Yes, this is a bit simplified and the tables have "but for" limitations, but its generally the case.)

Note that while this table was developed using engineering any runt with a pair of lineman's pliers and some wire staples can run cable without being able to do the calculations to independently determine this.  A table is sufficient for an electrician wiring your house; he does not have to understand the math, only the rules which are clearly on the table.

Now it may be the case that in certain circumstances you may not find the performance acceptable but provided you follow that "engineering" rule in a typical residence per the table it is safe.

The standard against one judges in this paradigm is always the status quo; that is, a bridge must not fall down because while you may find it inconvenient (or even unacceptable) to not be able to cross the river without it (absent either a boat or swimming) you won't fall from height and possibly be crushed by the debris without the bridge existing, and obviously a person now under the bridge and subject to having tons of concrete and steel fall on him can't have that happen if its not there.  That is, the status quo is that you are safe from being crushed from above or dropped from height and thus that status quo must not be violated by building the bridge.  If you cannot assure that and, if it that standard is violated someone will be punished for it appropriately, including being asset-stripped, thrown in prison or even executed then you must not build the bridge.  Period.

We must apply this to the status quo when it comes to energy, medicine, appliances and everything else -- and insist that our governments do so without exception.  Further, for those who make said policy or act on it if they violate this stricture they must be held personally accountable for all of the damage that occurs without exception -- no "waivers" or "immunity" may ever be permitted in that regard.

Want a real goal for 2024 in terms of enforcing a change in our so-called "social contract"?

Now you have one.

Go on back and read the original if you'd like as I score along from last year's prognostications....

• The virus "response" is collapsing and will continue to: DING DING DING!  There are still a handful of people screaming at the top of their lungs and making a spectacle of themselves much like a 2 year old that has been told they cannot have another candy, but the uptake on the latest shots is what it is and the sales job has failed.  What's astounding are the people who are trying to re-write history, especially those who threatened others and now try to claim they didn't, or try to claim they did not prognosticate that we would go through a "winter of being dead" if we didn't comply.  Well, we didn't comply and we're not dead, and now here are in winter again.  I'll leave the rest for the -NAD side of the blog.
  
  
• That collapse and the increases it brings in cost will accelerate the detonation of the federal budget via CMS.  DING!  Over two trillion was spent there last fiscal year ending September 30th and its not stopping either; through November, which is one sixth of the fiscal year (two months) the current total is $306 billion .vs. $291 billion last year.  While that is "only" a 5% increase thus far if you think we can keep paying that, uh, no.
  
  
• Other schemes peddled as "medical advice" will be increasingly explored.  I'm going to call that a "push" and bring it forward, although I could probably take credit for it -- specifically with regard to certain medications.  But its not clear that I will "win" that argument thus far, so we'll see.
  
  
• Severe dislocations due to mandates through industry.  POINT!  Its literally all over the place from various firms screaming about "back to the office" to pilot shortages to severe military recruiting problems and, not surprisingly, nursing.  All of these had one thing in common -- they all had mandates and some of them (like the military) have now tried to say "oh, come back please, we didn't mean it."  Uh huh.
  
  
• Cost-shifting in "online shopping" will crack.  MISS. It is what it is but the prediction I made as a part of it, which was that the "order today, have tomorrow" game is getting screwed with in a big way, appears to be verifying -- at least in my experience albeit with a few exceptions.  I'd say that "time to get it to 'ya", if you're not paying specifically for speed, is up somewhere around 30%.  Nonetheless the prediction was it would blow up in people's faces and it did not, so no point for me.
  
  
• The market is not done going down.   MISS.  Surprisingly so too for me, but it is what it is.
  
  
• The Omnibus insures inflation is not over either.  POINT.  Oh I know, last few months "core" is coming in supposedly but let's cut the crap folks -- roughly double the Fed's "primary gauge" isn't "normalized" and reality is what it is.  
  
  
• Rates are not done going up.  POINT.  The IRX started at 4.32 (roughly) and is now at 5.2.  That's almost a full point higher.  The TNX is basically flat, but the curve inversion is worse, and not by a little (in fact on the TNX-IRX it is three times worse), than it was on 12/31/2022.
  
  
• Business is going to have to return to employees being functional.  MISS.  I expected a crap ton of firings and while they're starting now December alone doesn't count.  I can't take credit for it when its six months+ late, although look before because I'm carrying that one forward.
  
  
• DEI and ESG will be increasingly recognized as DIE.  NEAR MISS, but I get the point over Harvard, MIT and UPenn among others.  This one's not over either.
  
  
• Russia isn't going to be "beaten" and the Ukraine support will vanish.  Point.  The vanishing is happening (no supplemental yet eh?) and Russia definitely hasn't been beaten.  The war's not over yet but anyone who thinks Z's troops were going to stomp Putin (with our assistance or otherwise) has been sadly wrong, and plenty of Ukrainians are dead as a consequence.
  
  
• The impact of the Omnibus will be historic, and nasty.  MISS.  Some of the most-egregious provisions are still in there but not yet recognized, and thus while some have been (and even reversed, such as the near-total ban on drilling) not enough for me to take credit for it, so nope.
  
  
• Green energy is headed for the dustbin and firms are in trouble.  POINT!  Ford, GM and similar are all running away from EVs.  So is virtually everyone else, although there's still a brave face on it coming from various quarters.  It doesn't work thermodynamically and the cars are piling up on lots among other things.  
  
  
• DeSantis will either take the RNC pole position or blow up.  The latter -- POINT.  You have to chuckle when Haley is nearly beating him, and she is.  DeSantis is losing by thirty points or more to Trump.  I'd say that's "blown up."
  
  
• Political shifts are going to increase in ugliness.  POINT!  Comity?  What's that?
  
  
• Economic and political disparities in areas between "red" and "blue" are going to produce actual fractures in supply lines and cooperation.  POINT!  Blue cities screaming about "migrants" that they refuse to get behind blocking at the border, proving without question that their "support" was in fact nothing more than a desire to screw other states?  Well.... yeah.  Among other things.
  
  
• Illegal immigration forces policy changes.  Nope.  Not yet.  There are signs of it, including rumblings about calling up the Guard and putting down crossings by "whatever means must be used" but thus far other than the fencing that Texas put up (and they won a court challenge on Biden's people cutting them too) it hasn't folded back on the government yet, but no point for me.
  
  
• Housing is nowhere near done going down.  POINT.  We ain't there gentlemen; the market continues to remain locked, although I am seeing plenty of price-cuts here it doesn't matter as they're not moving.  This is going to be a huge story forward and will be below once again.
  
  
• Auto prices, specifically used cars, are going to collapse.  MISS but just barely.  The various "feelers" at the auction level say I might be off by a month or two and it IS starting, along with the incentives coming back on new vehicles.  Nonetheless its no point for me, but I'm going to carry that one forward into next year as well.

So how's this look.... I count twelve points, 1 push and six misses for a hit rate of 12/19 = 63%.  Not bad.

On to 2024!

Let's do the two pull-forwards first and then the rest:

• Car prices - kaboom!  Its starting already, and some of the biggest collapses are going to come in the EV area.  Simply put those who want them bought them and nobody else wants them.  You can't get around the charge time and distance requirements and it matters not what you mandate; people do not want them, especially when the credits expire and suddenly they cost wildly more than a gas-powered vehicle.
  
  
• Businesses will be forced to cut those who do not produce.  The inflation squeeze is not over and the "RIP" meme stuff sounds great but only works when labor is in control of the equation.  The tide is turning on this folks, and with the below on the economy if you're one of those people who has played that game you're first to get a pink slip.
  
  
• The "great congressional reset" put forward by the current speaker, that is returning to regular order with his extensions expiring, are going to amuse -- and fail.  We'll see if he has the rocks to stand firm when the other bills fail to be completed by the end of January.  He said "no more extensions and CRs" but when he said that originally I disbelieved, said so in public and still do.  Therefore my prediction (for the point) is that no return to regular order, which means there will be at least one and possibly several more "extensions", "Omnibus" and "CRs", which in turn brands the GOP as a pack of liars.
  
  
• Silly season, otherwise known as the federal elections for November, will bring multiple surprises -- and upsets.  What this means is that to get the point either (1) someone other than Trump or Biden has to actually win (whether by oddity or being knocked out) or (2) a serious third-party challenge must actually get onto the ballot or some state-led action (e.g. barring Trump from the ballot successfully) has to occur and throw the result from what it would otherwise be.  If either Trump or Biden wins I do not get the point.
  
  
• Congress will not materially reign in spending and a secondary inflationary spike will start to hit before the end of the year.  It is what it is and right now Congress is driving a roughly eight percent inflation rate.  Oh, you think its 4% right now?  Uh, no it isn't; short-term absorption can temper what would otherwise show up but can't stop it, and that short-term stuff goes away.  Specifically there is a drawdown on excess reserves that is almost gone and will soon be gone, and there's nothing The Fed or anyone else can do about that.  It is serving as a buffer right now but that is ending, and soon.  The usual pipeline delay is still there -- which means coming into the elections things get quite interesting.
  
  
• There will not be four, five or six rate cuts.  No point if there are four or more.  Less than four and.... ding!
  
  
• There will be at least a 10% drawdown from the closing market price of the SPX on 12/31, and I get two points for a 20% or greater one.  If the market goes up in the early part of the year its not 10% from there, its 10% from the 12/31 price.  Yes, this means I might by buying some PUTs and no, that's not investment advice although I do consider them "on sale" at the moment with the VIX trading around 13.
  
  
• Housing begins to crack in a serious form.  It is too early, and this year will remain too early.  If you have to move then do so, because selling a bubble and buying one is a net zero, but for the love of God do not take on leverage to acquire real estate in any form at this time.  You're asking for it straight up the chute.  It will be years before a reasonable bottom comes -- best guess is three to five years out.
  
  
• AirBNB and similar are done.  Yes, there will still be short-term rentals and places like the Smokies are not going to have them disappear by any means, but the salad days are over and all these firms and their "hosts" are in for some serious financial trouble. $200 a day for a stay and close to that base price again in fees and such, including exorbitant cleaning fees and "expectations" (e.g. "you do the laundry and take out the trash or get fined") are going to disappear as people increasingly decide that a hotel is a better deal (and a lot of the time -- it is!)  Anyone who bought one of these with leverage (e.g. has a note on it) is going to get ruined and the recent practice in places like Sevier County of assessing all said properties are commercial (they are) and subjecting them to commercial property tax and other rates should and this year will expand.  This in turn means both the revenue and expense sides of the balance sheet for these sorts of properties are going to get squeezed against the owners; anyone in them with leverage is exposed to being financially destroyed.
  
  
• A serious revolt begins as regards illegal immigrants (or "migrants" if you prefer.)  This probably does not involve mass-violence although it might.  It does involve economic revolt in all respects, particularly when it comes to those places that are Democrat-controlled (e.g. cities and similar) and it will come from those who already are trying to claw their way up, meaning already-present Black and Hispanic Americans.  Given the upcoming elections this has every possibility of not just shaping state and local elections but national outcomes as well.  This is and will remain all about economics - when all is said and done people vote their wallet and that not only never has changed it never will change.  This is the biggest threat to Democrat office-holders in November by far; their "open border and handout" policy was crafted in a way to screw Red states and areas but that was always intellectually bankrupt, particularly while Democrat-heavy places extolled their "sanctuary" status.  Now they have to deliver on their promise and to do it they must take from those who elect them which is not very popular with said electorate (big shock, right?)
  
  
• The Middle East conflict will not be settled; it will instead expand and become a serious problem.  I'm not all that good at prognosticating the twists and turns of military insanity, but if you think there's any indication that its going to calm down over the next year may I recommend a psychiatrist -- you need one.  Significant disruption to international trade is already occurring and is likely to expand and we, in America, have ceded our authority and capacity to absorb it on an inflation front, having squandered that in the little adventure over in Ukraine.  This is already leading to wild increases in container transport prices and it just takes one sunk ship for insurance to become essentially unobtainable for commercial trade.  This is not WWI or WWII where even with armed military escort transports were routinely sunk.  We lack the capacity, given the ridiculous increase in ocean-bound shipping, to provide such protection (leaky though it would be) even if we wanted to.  In short essentially all global trade relies on the lack of military action by belligerents in any focused sort of way on said trade routes and we simply cannot escort same and thus secure it.  At the same time we can "see" everything (and so can everyone else) in the satellite age so the premise of "surprise" across oceans is for all intents and purposes void as well.
  
  
• America will walk away from Ukraine; while nobody will have "won" Ukraine will have to sue for peace on essentially the terms Russia wanted originally.  You can't take and hold ground without boots being there and Ukraine simply has fewer boots available -- and plenty of theirs have run away rather than enlist and fight.  This was utterly predictable from the outset; Ukraine is not and has never been a cohesive society.  I pointed this out originally when this dust-up started -- there are four "rough" factions within the nation and they all hate each other sufficiently to be willing to slaughter the others, given even a weak excuse.  Its been that way for a thousand years and is why the USSR basically allowed them to be "autonomous."  Nonetheless whether we or anyone else likes it the Russians have their naval port and will not give it up and unless you're willing to fight a nuclear war over it you're crazy to try.
  
  
• We will be forced to deal with the realities of the medical and pharmaceutical business -- and it will start this year.  It won't be over and done this year by any means, but the hiding of the sausage is simply untenable at this point and while there is still lots of hand-waving the capacity to absorb it and drive more spending into the health care field on worthless and even harmful actions has now gone so far it threatens the fiscal survival of the nation.  The people who refuse to adapt to this and get their own health in order -- which I've been talking about for the last ten years in volume -- are going to have a very bad time of it.  Don't be one of them.
  
  
• DEI will have a rough year.  By December the winds of change will be everywhere.  Harvard's issue with Gay is the tip of a very large iceberg.  That onion will get peeled and Harvard will be essentially forced to do it by firms that, if they don't, will start boycotting their graduates.  There are already winds of this afoot in regards to Harvard's Law School and that is going to spread.  Right now these places are all saying "its not about Harvard's students" but that's false; it is very much about their students and what they become while there, whether they entered the college with that point of view or not.  This is not limited by any means to three universities and a few fields either; if you look at all the cyber break-ins over the last few years in very large, and allegedly-capable companies it should be immediately-obvious that the basic problem is that competence is absent in places where it shouldn't be.  That's the fundamental problem with "DEI" when you get down to it; you are hiring, admitting, promoting, passing and generally advancing on metrics other than competence.  This is only possible without getting destroyed by competitors when you can force others to do it too which is why the Ivys getting involved in this has been successful for this long and so has it been in "industry."  It may have taken the Israeli/Palestinian issue to force this abject fraud onto the front page but now that it has it won't go away and the notice that it does and will lead to bad outcomes across industries will get noticed.  This is not a one year thing but my bet (for the point) is that this is the year in which it gains enough currency to be "a thing" and the pendulum shift becomes unmistakable.
  
  
• The big "R" (Recession) will be evident, although possibly not yet declared, in 2024.  Note that the NBER is frequently six months or more behind on that, so anything that officially turns down from June onward is unlikely to be officially declared by the end of the year.  I will take the point if its evident whether formally declared or not, but will not take it if its nebulous or not in evident bloom by the end of December '24 (in other words, I won't cheat.)

As always I reserve the right to amend and add things from now until 12:01 AM January 1st at which point it is what it is and we go forward with the scoring from there.

There is a collapse coming.

We can either try to mitigate it or not.

Either way its going to be bad, but if we do nothing -- or worse, do more destructive things or continue those we're doing now, it will be catastrophic.

Its simply the mathematics of the problem; at a 1.6 fertility rate (when 2.0x is required) in 20 years you're in trouble, and in 40 you're in really, really serious trouble.

No, you can't fix it with immigration. That's a trope and it doesn't work because if the situation that led to it is still present bringing in more, new people simply result in them making the same decisions in a generation or two and you've accomplished nothing.

You have to change the paradigm in a way that reverses the disincentives and threats.

It takes a full generation before what you do will bear fruit.  Why?  Because that's how long it takes for the generation growing up now to reach adulthood and have a good childhood themselves, and thus want to have children.

Musk is crowing about screwing like a rabbit; he has the analysis correct but he's one successful sperm in a vagina and thus the odds of him personally making a difference, even if his mantra was to catch fire with every other billionaire, is zero.  He'd do a lot more for humanity if he managed to get every such billionaire to tell the government of the United States to stop importing people via both illegal immigration and H1b/H2 visas and shut down all deficit spending, collapsing both asset prices and the cost of living or else he and the rest of the billionaires will take their money and production to a nation that does.

Of course he won't do that because his little fiefdom and billions requires said outside people and schemes, all of which are a disincentive for ordinary folks to have kids as those "imported" bodies compete for jobs, drive up housing costs by presenting additional demand for same and slam downward wages -- and every one of those actions makes the calculation for all thinking people of ordinary intelligence and gifts, when it comes to the decision to have kids, worse.

But for those things he wouldn't have any money at all -- and he knows it.

Let's face facts folks: Nobody who you want to have children will bring said children into a world where they believe said kids will get screwed.

That doesn't mean kids won't come anyway; they will, for some.  Some adults don't care what happens to their offspring, some actually use them as meal tickets and more.  Some people are also always going to be eternally optimistic and therefore none of this will factor into their decisions.  And some will have "accidents" and for personal or religious reasons decide to bear and attempt to raise said kids.  But none of that changes the basic facts: People who are of decently-competent intellect and of good character, in a world of technology where one can choose when and whether to reproduce, will only do so voluntarily if they believe it makes sense AND their offspring will get a fair shake.

Destroying the fiscal health of the nation by emitting 8% of GDP in unbacked credit via deficit spending is the exact opposite of such.  Simple mathematics tells us that this results in you losing half your standard of living in less than ten years and it takes about 20 years to decide to have a kid, have said kid and raise him or her to adulthood.  Run those fiscal deficits and you've told all the thinking adults that child's standard of living, when they reach adulthood, will be one quarter of yours today assuming your children are as competent and intelligent as you are.

Would anyone who has two IQ points to rub together have children in that situation, when the options facing said kid 20 years hence are privation to this degree or civil war (and the attendant risk of being dead!) to overthrow said government?

NO.

Importing millions of unskilled workers who then drop kids who have parents with no skills, and thus no realistic means of learning much from said parents yet are citizens in the gambit to cheapen labor screws the next two generations sequentially.  Oh sure, in two generations or so those kids having their own kids will "outgrow" that but then they are able to compute the same odds and they won't have children either!  Think I'm wrong?  The data says I'm not; within two generations those who were the children of illegals stop having lots of babies too and its for the same reason, I'll wager: They're convinced their children will get screwed and have one quarter of THEIR standard of living -- and they remember living eight to a one bedroom apartment!

You think all those glorious "vacation venues" bringing in H2 workers, and all those "tech" places with H1bs, mean parents have a great experience for their kids at lower cost?  Maybe, but in addition they have seen the destruction it wreaks on said kids.  Please explain how many of Americans you saw of college age working scooping ice cream or similar this summer to make enough money to go to college in the fall.  Zero -- or nearly so -- right?  That's what I saw all over the country.  Now if I'm 20, and thinking about making some kids, where are my kids going to be in 20 years?  Unable to get a summer job and unable to afford college too.  Many see this, keep their pants on and both Trojan and the birth control pill companies keep having decent quarterly reports.

Good jobs with nice pay tend to be concentrated around cities.  How's Chicago doing these days?  Yeah, getting mugged while walking around North Michigan Avenue (assuming you don't get shot, which is of course even worse) is great.  Do you want to expose children you might have to that risk?  Hmmmm..... probably not.  Oh, and speaking of which how are you going to afford a place to live with said kids when the cost of housing and property taxes have skyrocketed by more than double over the last decade or so -- and there's a new round of screwing headed for you in this upcoming year's bill, all so you can be a "sanctuary" for a bunch of Venezuelan fighting-age men who illegally came to the US!  All of this is very conducive to choosing to bear children, right?  I mean its not like you're going to have to pay those property taxes at an ever-escalating rate for the next 20 years if you choose to have kids, right?  Oh, wait.... you are!

Think about the process of bearing said kid as a microcosm of the hosing you may well get on an entirely-arbitrary and 100% out of your control basis.  You (or your wife if you're a guy) is facing an unknowable bill from the hospital for having said kid and you will get GRILLED about whether you own a car seat before the child is even toweled clean!  Answer "wrong" and CPS gets called and crawls up your backside.  Oh, and they will jab said newborn before you can object yet if what they give that kid seriously screws him or her they're immune from being sued over if it and you are forced to pay that bill too.  That's the first of seventy such immunizations you must give to said child or they cannot go to school at all, the manufacturer and the doctor are absolutely immune from liability if said drug seriously injures or kills your child and of course you get the bill and possibly a lifetime of needing to care for and support said child if that injury occurs.  If something goes wrong during birth you are looking at an instant six-figure bill and the possibility of being financially ruined; if you already have a kid that event will wreck their life too.  Yes, the risk of injuries or worse is always part of having children and we all know that, but this is a thumb on the scale and a demand that you accept the risk of someone else screwing up and then abusing you financially because they can -- not because you did something stupid or accepted a reasonable cost for what was bad luck came your way.  Does that put a thumb on the scale when it comes to your decision to have the child in the first place?

Said child gets to be about six and its time for school.  You've been paying property taxes funding said schools all along except..... the kids in said schools are not managing to learn anything.  This isn't new, by the way -- in the 1990s more than eight out of ten who came to try to get a job at MCSNet, all holding High School diplomas or better, couldn't perform basic arithmetic with a paper and pencil nor write a simple basic English language business letter explaining that a customer had to pay their bill to restore their service.  I gave all applicants those two basic tests and kept all of them in a large file cabinet as it was the only reasonable way to guard against being unjustly accused of "discrimination."  What is the forward earnings capacity of an 18 year old who can't do both of those things -- other than gang-banging related criminal activity, of course.  Blame this on whatever you'd like but the facts are what they are, so your options are to suck it up and take the risk that your child fails to learn or you pay twice -- once in the property taxes and then again for private education.  Meanwhile your neighbor is a school teacher who gets paid and has a nice house to live in irrespective of the fact that you can't trust your kid to actually learn anything in that classroom and whether its because she can't kick out the three little monsters who like to throw chairs in class or that she herself can't make change for a $20 doesn't matter -- she gets paid anyway and so does everyone else who works there even though they repeatedly fail to teach anyone anything at all.

Then you think about the child getting older.  He or she is rather bright and would perhaps like a college education.  You see the bills pile up on those who are there now, and the growth of that price over the last 20 years.  You see $100,000 or more in debt larded up on someone who studies gender or black history and a "professor" who claims that capitalism is horrible -- while pulling down a six-figure salary and forcing your child to pay the next kid over's tuition in Calculus class because you, not your child, have more money than his parents do.  You think "oh, my kid is a math whiz and will study programming" which sounded great 20+ years ago but then you remember the many H1bs that multiple large firms brought in to replace all of their American citizen programmers, forcing said Americans to train their replacements before being fired in order to get any severance at all!  Thus that $100,000 taken on in debt to go to college, you realize, can be rendered worthless by said corporations even if your kid makes good choices as soon as someone from India will do the work for less money.  This wild escalation in the cost of an education is not by random luck either, which would be a risk everyone has to take -- three decades ago there was no Internet and colleges were the only real place you could learn a lot of things.  Today anyone can learn anything from literally anywhere with nothing more than a $50 cellphone, a $200 laptop and $50/month for Internet service so why has the cost of learning and proving it at a college level of competence gone up by five or more times in the last 30 or so years instead of costing almost nothing to simply take a set of proctored tests and prove competence?  Reality is that all of this is due to the deliberate policies and actions of universities, governments and corporations which will screw your child without any possibility of redress when he or she grows up -- and there is no evidence that it is slowing down or will be stopped.

You buy another box of Trojans.

You walk into the grocery store and see a single woman with four kids, no Dad, and she whips out her EBT card at the checkout.  She's got a nicer car than you do and she pays nothing for her residence, nor for her phone and Internet service -- all because she dropped four kids with no father she'll name.  Of course there is a father, probably a different one for each kid.  She gamed the system by using children as an ATM machine.  Even worse the kids are all obese and the cart is full of sugared soda and Doritos, all of which you are being taxed to pay for and she's probably on six prescription drugs which you're paying for too.  You contemplate that your skin is the wrong color to get away with that and you recognize that children are best-served by having two parents in the home but actually striving to provide the best possible environment for children to be born into and thrive means you won't get the EBT, free housing, free medical care or free phone and Internet service and in addition you have been forced to pay for her four births, all the economic tyranny imposed by your local hospital on society for each on top of everything else and thus you don't have the money to put extra groceries in your cart to reasonably feed even one child.

You buy two more boxes of Trojans and your girlfriend renews her birth control prescription just to be sure.

Never mind the sociological factors -- like the quality of the dating pool due to self-inflicted personal health damage that those on both sexes have inflicted on themselves.  In the extreme we have young people being encouraged to take drugs or undergo surgeries that are likely or even guaranteed to permanently destroy their fertility and adult sexual function, but it hardly beings or ends there; that's just an extreme example but one that we're all expected to support and acknowledge as "normal" and "good."  If you don't "affirm" someone ruining their capacity to ever have an ordinary adult sexual relationship even before they reach adulthood and thus can possibly contemplate what they're giving up (and produce children, I remind you), in many cases while forcing the costs on either their parents or society as a whole you're called a bigot.

Look back at the last three years and I'll give you just one tiny example I can personally cite.  On Halloween night in 2020 a neighborhood girl I'd seen around here, I would guess 10 years of age, came up trick-or-treating.  She had a mask in her hand and asked me (unmasked, handing out candy on the porch -- better than half the houses were dark with the people cowering in fear inside!) "Sir, you're not scared of me?"  I told her "Not in the least; my health is my business and, if it fails me that's my issue."  Her reply back to me?  "Its all bull****."  Realize that she was being force-masked in school here in this county, in a "red state" and county that is so red you're wasting your time running as a Democrat, for nearly two years and the people who did it to her, six years from now when she reaches adulthood, will still not have lost a thing.  Some of those in higher office and thus in position to make policy for HER KIDS will likely have been the very teachers and school administrators who forced this ignobility on her; some of them even got commendations for bravery.  Will her knowledge of this and the screwing she personally took with such mandates by those very same people make her more or less-likely to have kids as an adult and will she assume that if she has children her kids are likely to get screwed in the same sort of way or even worse?

What could reverse that belief?  We might decide to hold those people who did all of that accountable by ejecting them from public office and any seat of power on a permanent basis -- or even jailing them and confiscating their assets along with passing iron-clad laws prohibiting anything of the sort with a private right of enforcement.  In other words we could give that formerly-screwed kid and now adult woman confidence her kids will not be screwed as she was without warning or cause.  We haven't and won't do any of that so there will be another generation of lower birth rates.  This outcome in another five or six years is our responsibility as the adults of today because we're not about to hold anyone accountable for those last three years!

Now add to this that there are two groups of politicians in "high office": Those who are geriatric and thus will be dead before the really bad outcomes from their policies occur and those who are narcissists and thus don't care if you and your kids get hosed as they believe they'll be immune from the bad effects even though they know you and yours won't.  If you think that's just a lawmaker thing you're dead wrong; my own father, who was a CPA and thus knew darn well what he was advocating and voting for and what it would mean, ran that crap on me during Thanksgiving one year while his grand-daughter was still at the age of crawling around on his living room carpet.  I was disgusted enough to get up from the table, gather our things, along with my kid, and immediately drove a few hours to get back home.

I could go on for hours with this but I think you get the point.  People don't choose to have fewer or no children because "that's how it is" as technology improves.  Technological improvement adds choice but society molds opinions and incentives -- for good or bad, like it or not.

People make the decision to not have children not because they're "selfish" but rather on an entirely-rational basis because they look back at their childhood for the baseline and then forward in time and what they see is not improvement but impoverishment, not prosperity but privation, forced compliance and costs shoved upon them while the mandating parties are immune from consequence even when they're later proved wrong or worse, someone is injured or killed, rampant illegal immigration and destruction of the common person's standard of living without boundary along with a documented history of forcing the voluntary costs taken by others down their throats along with myriad scams across the board.  When projected forward 20 years they recognize that any child they produce today is highly likely to be screwed blind and has a very low probability of having a good life, say much less a better one than they had.

Indeed if they judge that their childhood sucked they may well expect their kids' childhoods to suck worse and nobody who actually cares about a child they're contemplating bringing into the world voluntarily signs them up for that.

The people you want to bring children into the world are those who value children and have reason to believe their children will have at least as a good a life as they grew up with and enjoy now, with hope for even better, never mind a belief that their kids will have a fair shake and rational odds of success if they choose to apply themselves.

All of the policies of the last few decades of both government and industry have demonstrated beyond doubt that none of this is likely to be true and thus only those who don't give a wet crap about their children's future, or are so rich they believe they can guarantee it even if everyone else has their standard of living go straight to Hell, choose to reproduce.

Then there's the inescapable fact that a woman has a window for fertility that peaks in her late teens and early 20s.  By age 30 fertility is on the decline and by the time she's 35 that decline becomes precipitous; a woman who wants more than one child and is 35 is odds-off to be able to have both, and by 40 you may as well forget it entirely.  Leave aside the fact that most 55 year old people of either sex today can't possibly keep up with a teen, especially when they have an extra 100+lbs on their body and the risk of death due to said lifestyle choices before you can raise said child to adulthood begins to rise at an unacceptable rate as you pass your 50th birthday.  That, in turn, means that no, you can't wait another 5 or 10 years to fix this stuff because the women currently of child-bearing age won't be able to have children by then and if we don't cut the "healthy at any size" and "destroy your fertility on purpose by surgery or drugs" crazy nonsense today too many of those women who are of reproductive age at that point will be incapable of bearing children anyway.

That's why we're where we are, and if we don't stop it now in another 20 years it won't matter because for those who today are in their 40s and 50s, say much less older (many of the folks in my bracket will already be dead) there won't be anyone to pay the taxes that keep the government operating, there won't be any federal money for health care subsidization (e.g. Medicare) and there won't be anyone willing to wipe your butt when you can't do it anymore on your own.

.... be willing, to be President, that is.

But -- as always I refuse to "run"; therefore, if the people of this nation want me to be President they'll have to draft me.

I believe any citizen should be willing to accept being drafted in that sort of fashion.  I'm 60, so hardly a spring chicken, but its entirely reasonable to believe that I'll live out two terms in office without going either demented or dying outright.  Unlike most these days I don't have an extra 100+lbs hanging around, I require no prescribed medication of any sort but I will tell you right up front that I'm not going to submit to the poking and prodding that some people think should be routine nor is any such going to be published if I was to win the office.  If you need to see up my ass in order to vote for me, in short, you can go screw a goat right now -- vote for someone else.  There shouldn't be a "White House physician" and in my opinion you shouldn't vote for someone who needs one.

Feel free to judge my general medical fitness by my Athlinks profile however, along with the results, or just come to the next race I enter in the future and debate with the clock if you'd like.  I'm good with that and you should be too.

In addition I will execute a binding legal document containing my pre-election resignation from office which will give any citizen (and only citizens) the right to bring suit to eject me from said office if I violate any of the platform planks below.  Again, I view public office as a contract where politicians view it as a mechanism for grift, scam, fraud and self-enrichment.

Speaking of platform, here's what you get if you draft me.  Note that unlike the other candidates all this is within Executive power and none is a "flex" or expecting to get away with anything.  I'd argue that to claim that which you can't do without cooperation is fraud in the inducement and you won't find any of that here.

• I am a strict Constitutionalist.  There currently is a presumption that a bill is Constitutional within the Executive; I specifically state, in advance, that I intend to dishonor that.  Therefore all bills presented to me must, as their first clause(s), cite the specific authority under the Constitution that enables them.  Any bill missing this clause, or which contains language outside it, will be vetoed.  Any and all agencies or departments operating under the Executive shall comport with the clear language of the Constitution (as currently amended) in all respects.
  
  
• There is no right of entry into the United States unless you are a citizen or lawful permanent resident.  Further, the forcible entry into the United States by foreign nationals on an organized basis is legally an invasion and shall be treated as such and repelled as required.  Any nation facilitating such an invasion shall lose all trading status with the United States, without exception.  America shall treat those who disrespect our border yet claim to be "partners" as co-conspirators.  Those who believe they can bully America in this regard are wrong and will pay for it.  Yes, I understand there are many business interests who will "implore" me not to do this.  They should be imploring the other nations to cut that crap out, and if they don't or fail in doing so, well, there is risk in offshoring production into nations that are hostile toward America's interests.  Welcome to paying the costs because I mean it and will do it.  On my inauguration day the current invasion will end, one way or another, and all who are here illegally will find that my Executive will enforce, to the maximum extent permitted by long-standing law, all sanction against persons here illegally.  There are long-standing laws, for example, that forbid money laundering and tax evasion; those who attempt to use "remittances" as part of such a scheme to work under the table and expatriate funds will find themselves arrested, deported and barred on a permanent basis from re-entry into the United States as such is already a felony and it will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.  There is and shall remain a lawful process for entry into the United States and those who follow it shall have priority at all time and in all respects, with no deference given to those who have entered on an unlawful basis.  I will solicit a change to the 14th Amendment via the proper process to clarify that birthright citizenship shall only extend to the circumstance where the mother is either a lawful permanent resident or citizen at the time of said birth and that such an event shall not, under any circumstance, confer a right of citizenship or permanent residency for any other genetically-related person.
  
  
• I will not sign any bill I have not read, in full.  Yes, every single word on every single page will be personally read first.  The American people deserve no less than a President that fully understands every single law and all of its impacts that he or she signs into law while in office.  Since as President I must either sign or veto a bill within 10 days any bill that cannot be reasonably read, including all cross-references to existing law and be understood within the rational workload of the Presidency will be immediately vetoed as having been presented with obviously-fraudulent intent to obtain my signature without my knowing what's actually in said bill.
  
  
• Any attempt by Congress to "sneak" a provision into a bill that, during any negotiation I might have participated in with the members of Congress prior to it reaching my desk, but which I was not apprised of or which is materially altered will result in the bill being vetoed -- without exception.  I will not stand for attempted fraud in the legislative process under any circumstances and irrespective of the excuses made for it.  This is a long-standing practice in Washington DC and it shall never be seen within the Executive during my term.
  
  
• I will sign no budget bills that do not include a primary and operating surplus of at least 3%, except in time of declared war.  If Congress demands deficit spending then they will have to override my veto.  I will of course negotiate exactly how we will reach said primary and operating surplus, but we shall or I will not sign into law any appropriation bill.  Attempts to back-door that by presenting bills "piecemeal" will result in the later ones being vetoed, and yes, I mean it -- and it shouldn't be a surprise since I'm putting it right here.
  
  
• I will not sign any bill, nor take any Executive Action, to prosecute or assist in a war without a vote of Congress to enter said war and delineate the terms on which we are in it, irrespective of who the alleged beneficiary is.  The War Power is reserved to Congress, not the Executive.  This does not prevent me from "hot pursuit" and should such be required I will warn all foreign governments and non-government actors: There will be no warning and no second chances if you pull something that demands such a response.  You'll get it, immediately.  But beyond that, nope.  If I have reason to believe we should do more then I'll go to Congress and get it authorized and it will be paid for unless Congress authorizes a direct war declaration.
  
  
• All entities violating 15 USC Chapter 1 will be prosecuted, criminally so and shall name every director and officer individually if said is a corporation.  The existing DOJ "guidelines" that prohibit criminally charging said companies and the refusal to charge directors and officers in nearly all cases will be rescinded by Executive Order immediately upon taking office.  Any US Attorney who refuses to bring said charges will be summarily dismissed and replaced, without exception.  The current practice of allowing firms to break felony laws and merely pay fines which they can force customers to eat shall end on my first day.
  
  
• No person in my Administration nor any immediate family member will trade any security, in any form, while in office and all information gained will be treated as "inside information" and, upon evidence that said individual disclosed it to a third party who then traded upon it they will be, if possible under existing law, prosecuted and in any event such an act will lead to summary dismissal from their position.  Period.  All persons desiring to serve in my Administration will sign a legally-binding contract that prohibits them from consulting or working for any entity that has had business before my Administration and where they have had contact with said policy for a period of five years after leaving said employment.  There will be no exceptions to this policy; you serve the people and you shall not be part of any "revolving door" nonsense using your position as a means to personally enrich yourself as soon as you leave said employment nor will your wife or husband have an incredibly prescient trading record as a result of you working for the American people.  This scam will not continue during my term in office within the Executive under my control.
  
  
• I will direct CMS such that no entity that imposes any form of disparate billing of any sort may receive funds from CMS, without exception, and all such prices must be publicly posted and charged evenly.  Everyone pays the same price for the same goods and services in any entity that receives funds from Medicare or Medicaid.  No exceptions, no ifs, ands or buts.  I can't do it everywhere via Executive action but I can do it within CMS, and will.  That will end medical tyranny in the United States on my first day in office.  I would like to see this bill passed, but I'm President, not the Speaker of the House so what I can do on my own in the Executive I will, and then we'll sort the rest out.
  
  
• To the extent that I can do so via CMS policy, I will enact "no cure, no pay" within Medicare and Medicaid.  There are likely limits on how far this can go under existing executive authority, but if there is a future pandemic or other health emergency during my term this absolutely can be part of the response and, it is likely, it can be imposed for many routine circumstances as well.  Your tax money should not be used for worthless -- or even harmful -- medical measures and under my administration it won't be to the maximum extent I can implement this change.
  
  
• All existing emergencies at the Federal Level that have been in existence for more than 12 months will be revoked on my first day in office.  The remainder will be reviewed within 30 days and all that do not have a demonstrable reason to remain will be revoked upon completion of each review.  No emergency during my term will have an initial term of more than 30 days; any authority beyond that must come from Congress and I will promote and attempt to pass a bill codifying this into law.  Enough of the "government by emergency"; there are an insane number of existing, non-terminated emergency declarations and they're all gone on my first day.
  
  
• I will demand that Congress revoke the EPA, and any other federal agency, capacity to regulate carbon emissions of any sort.  Until they do not one bill will pass my desk with other than a veto.  Energy independence and carbon-based fuels are why we have a modern society; you may not like it but I'm quite sure you prefer to have both heat and transportation over not.  There are few issues where I am willing to put this sort of marker on the table; this is one of them.  There are many good things that have come from environmental regulation but carbon is not a pollutant; it is plant food.  In addition we cannot, and will not, manage to stop Africa and Asia, particularly India, from advancing their societies -- nor should we.  If there is an argument to make on energy efficiency it has to be made in the marketplace on the economic benefits.  People will buy more-efficient things if they're cheaper on a total life-cycle basis including impacts on durability, comfort and the discounted time value of money.  If you can't make the argument on that basis then the so-called "improvement" is a lie and the ability to impose it by force will be removed.
  
  
• I will demand that Congress revoke all criminal and civil immunity from every branch of private industry under every circumstance, and will issue targeted vetoes against any bill touching any industry benefiting from same until it occurs.  The pharmaceutical industry is a large part of this -- but not all of it.  If an industry argues that it "won't" produce a thing our society needs without that then let them withdraw and as soon as they do the government will fund said production, subject to the right of first refusal by said private firms.  Holding people hostage (as the pharmaceutical industry did with the DTP fiasco) will be met with the government stepping in and criminal charges if any sort of organized action occurs as such is a violation of 15 USC Chapter 1.  Executives will go to prison if they try to get around this with various forms of arm-twisting.  I have no problem with throwing rich and powerful people in prison if the break the law and you shouldn't either.
  
  
• The DEA will be directed to de-schedule cannabis.  It does not meet the legal requirements to be scheduled and never did; this was an outrageous fraud and said frauds must end.  This has to go through formal process (e.g. notice in the Federal Register, etc.) but it will happen starting on my first day in office.  All other scheduled drugs will be similarly reviewed for compliance with the actual statute and those that do not meet the requirements will be shifted into the correct category or de-scheduled as appropriate.
  
  
• I shall solicit Congress to revoke the bankruptcy exemption on student loans and remove from the Federal Government all involvement in same on an immediate and permanent basis.  This requires an act of Congress but it has to be done.  Post-secondary education is a racket and has been driven by the incremental policy moves of Congress and the Federal Government in regards to student lending.  Obama's federalization of student lending is a proven failure and must be reversed and all such loans ejected from the federal portfolio.  This will end the FASFA scam as well; an adult is just that, and it is none of a university's business how much their parents make or have.  Only Pell and Stafford will remain as federal programs pending review of their efficiency and distortions on the educational marketplace.  We cannot end the various forms of discriminatory conduct in education nor the raw exploitation of young adults without doing this.  Existing borrowers should be able to discharge said debt, and I will promote a change in the Bankruptcy Code that provides that if one does so all credits so-earned and the degree is also revoked to provide a strong disincentive for strategic default.  Those who got talked into $100,000+ of debt for what proves to be a worthless degree, on the other hand, should be able to discharge same.  At the same time PSLF and related programs must and to the extent can be eliminated by Executive action will be ended; non-profits should have to compete in the marketplace like everyone else for employment and suppressing wages in the public sector is damaging to the economy and individual people.
  
  
• Roe has been stuck by the Supreme Court.  I shall neither attempt to reinstate it nor will I take any Executive action to enact federal bans on what the Supreme Court has returned to the States.  This is a debate that has to happen at the state level and the determination as to whether common ground can be found must take place there.  It may be that this is where it stays forever -- that I do not know, but what I do know is that attempting to enact a federal abortion ban is exactly the same sort of tyranny that was in place on the other side with partial birth abortions where a child half-born could be killed with impunity.  Corner cases make bad law and I will not participate in either side of this debate's attempt to ram said corner cases down the American people's throats.
  
  
• I will impose Wage and Environmental Parity Tariffs on imports from all nations, whether directly or via intermediary nations, that despoil the environment, use forced or otherwise coerced labor, and that subsidize or otherwise tamper with pricing via state support, including but not limited to those nations that engage in or suborn intellectual property theft and/or destruction.  This will be imposed without fear or favor; no nation will be exempt.  Those nations that trade fairly and freely with the United States will find the same is extended to them.  Those that have not, or do not, will be paying the entire laden cost they attempted to shift off via tariffs on everything that is sourced or passes through their country.
  
  
• I will immediately end all involvement within the power of the Executive within Ukraine.  Congress of course may not concur, and they do have the capacity to override spending vetoes, but where the Executive has unitary capacity to make decisions that bear in this area said withdrawal will occur starting on my first day in office.  We were largely responsible for creating this mess all the way back to Maidan and we will, within the limits of my power, stop doing so.  All sanctions related to said activity will be immediately dropped.  If foreign nations wish to fight they ought to make that determination on their own merits, such as they are, and bear the consequences.
  
  
• I will establish a Presidential Commission with a mandate to report on the engineering steps required to bring the ORNL LFTR prototype to production and then will present that to Congress on a crash-program basis with the intent of commercial power production within five years.  This will undoubtedly include expedited permitting and review processes that will require immediate sign-off or rejection -- and no delays.  No Federal agency under the Executive will be permitted to sit on any such review during my tenure.  It is my expressed intent that the United States have a closed civilian nuclear fuel cycle and all such measures necessary to do so, along with extraction of liquid fuels from coal, will be undertaken with appropriate budgetary requests to Congress to do so.  We can be entirely energy independent in the United States and within my two terms, assuming I get a second one, we will be .
  
  
• All renewable fuel mandates (e.g. Ethanol and biodiesel) will be allowed to sunset or, if not subject to sunset within the next two years, be dropped.  The emissions reductions from ethanol in particular disappeared once closed-cycle engines were introduced and essentially all road engines are and have been for more than 20 years.  This program no longer has a benefit in the form of pollution reduction but it imposes wild expanses of cost both on transportation fuels and food.  If ethanol makes sense on a per-BTU basis to put in fuel then it will be done by the market itself, not on federal mandate.  If it does not make sense then it will disappear as it should.
  
  
• I will endeavor to abolish the GSEs entirely through Congressional action.  Until they are anyone who participates in any form of fraud -- including attesting they are buying a house to live in when they intend to or do rent it in whole or part -- will find themselves defending an indictment against them.  All parties to said fraud will be named and charged, including the Realtors, Title firms, lenders, attorneys and any other entity who has reason to know or does know of said abuses.  This is a significant factor that has driven the unaffordability of single family housing and in each and every case it is criminal act.  Strengthening families means making sure they can afford a place to live.  If you're a part of these abuses and extraction industries you will go to prison and forfeit the property in question upon conviction.  Period.
  
  
• The best defense against potential changes in climate, which we cannot control for multiple reasons (which I'm happy to debate) is to have a strong economy and apply engineering to the challenges rather than attempt that which cannot succeed as we are a mere 330 million people out of 8 billion on this planet.  We have no more right to tell others how to live than they do in the other direction.  What we can do is mitigate to the extent reasonable and possible -- and in many cases, it is not only possible it can be done with benefit to the economy and productivity of our nation as a whole.
  
  
• The Armed Forces are supposed to be a fighting force that we hope never need be used.  There is no place in it for "woke" anything, whether predicated on race, sex, gender or anything else.  Any members of leadership who are not best-suited for the job will be removed and replaced.  Standards will not be lowered to suit "social values."  We hope and pray that we never need lift weapons in anger, but hope is not a strategy and thus we must always be prepared for the possibility that indeed we will be called upon to do so.
  
  
• The office of the President has often issued "dietary guidance."  Here's mine and you get it in advance: Stop eating fast carbohydrates.  The "food pyramid" was a scam and almost-exactly inverted as to what you should and should not consume.  This was driven by commercial interests, not the health of Americans.  I'm a living example of what I believe in this regard and we will destroy the obesity epidemic in America without pharmaceuticals.  It is simply a matter of what goes in your pie hole; your body knows, like every other animal, how to regulate food intake all on its own if you stop poisoning it.
  
  
• The FDA has apparently claimed "sovereign immunity" with regards to claims they are concerned will be proved false in open court.  To the extent this case is still under litigation I will expressly disavow same on my first day by Executive declaration.  If the case has been disposed of an Executive Order will be issued on said first day to specifically disavow same on a forward basis government-wide.  No federal agency will ever, during my Administration, claim a right to lie to the American people.  If such an agency does lie not only will it be legally accountable for the harm but I will further strip any personal liability shield that said individuals may otherwise claim and the individuals involved will be forced to answer for said lies in their personal capacity.  There is a clean argument to be made for qualified immunity for mistakes and that I will permit to continue but that does not extend to deliberate acts and no person will commit such an act in a department I have control over, directly or otherwise, while I am in office and get away with it.
  
  
• Judicial nominations will be made on the basis of strict construction of the Constitution and a demonstrated capacity and record in doing so.  Appointments in all other respects will be made only upon merit with all other characteristics explicitly disregarded.  All "quotas", whether soft or hard, with respect to race, sex and similar are not only repugnant to the position they're federally illegal as discriminatory conduct for or against a protected class and have no place within my Executive or the nominations it produces -- period.  Merit comes back to the Executive on my first day in office in all respects.

If you believe that something else ought to be added make your case in the comment section.  I'll edit this Ticker as appropriate and will pin it until the time of the election.  I very much doubt there are even five percent of the American people who want an actual Constitutionalist in office who puts America first, will defend our borders including with deadly force and trade sanctions if necessary, will stop inflation on an immediate and permanent basis and will not allow any sort of "special interest" or Congressional game-playing to ram-rod provisions of law through an Executive signature issued without knowing every single word contained in a bill and what it does.  I also suspect almost-nobody wants an Executive that both respects the boundaries and tripartite system of government we have even when its inconvenient for whatever position they wish to advance.

Perhaps I'm wrong -- but I doubt it.