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The market is fired up this morning on the news that Greece put forward the same proposal that their voters just rejected, save a few minor (and inconsequential) changes.

But -- the "quid pro quo" and substantial possible change is that now there is talk of debt "reprofiling".  If this does not include actual face-value write-downs, and very material ones, then Greece's Debt:GDP ratio goes over 200% in the next few years anyway and in a few months the so-called "bailout loan" will once again mean nothing.

This smells like just another can-kick to me, on the numbers.  Of course there may be an actual writedown in here somewhere, but I doubt it, for the simple reason that if Germany accedes to that then Portugal immediately comes in with the same demand, as do Spain and Italy -- and the house of cards collapses around their ears.

Now listen to what Cramer is saying this morning on CNBC: China's stock market is ok because the government is literally willing to jail or murder people if they don't buy (and not sell) stock.

What?  So ok, margin calls don't matter.  Except that the firm that made the loan has negative equity (is bankrupt) -- but we'll ignore that too.  This is now touted as the reason to buy stocks here in the United States -- lying as a business is a reason to buy!


What Cramer has just said, as have the rest of the talking idiots on CNBC who didn't challenge him and shut him down, is that our market has nothing to do with reality either.  It's all a function of who's lying about what to whom and you should buy because fraud and lies as a business model are both good and sustainable.

I give up.

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2015-07-10 06:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 228 references

This guy has it spot-on:

Giaever argued that there’s been no global warming for the last 17 years or so (based on satellite records), weather hasn’t gotten more extreme and that global temperature has only slightly risen — and that’s based on data being “fiddled” with by scientists, he said.

“When you have a theory and the theory does not agree with the experiment then you have to cut out the theory. You were wrong with the theory,” Giaever said.


A few weeks ago I got into quite a "debate" with a climate change screamer who used to be one of my high school teachers.  He got rather upset with me a few years back when I went after him on Facebook over his incessant nattering about that which he couldn't support, and we started to talk a bit over some beers.

I simply pointed this out: The predictions made by the so-called models have not verified.  This means that the model is wrong.  It does not tell us what the right model is, but it is proof that the model that has been used and run is incorrect and thus the hypothesis put forward was not proved.

That's the beginning and end of the discussion.  Now if you wish to put forward a new hypothesis and propose a new experiment then have at it.  But until you do the previous hypothesis has been disproved as the experimental results did not verify -- and that's the end of the discussion right there, unless you are trying to tell me that 2 + 2 = 6 in which case you're not a scientist at all but rather are advocating for a religion.

What Mike ought to think about, and others like him, is that when one displays the sort of zealotry that he has had on this subject while claiming to be based on science he is calling into question the veracity of everything he "taught" to those who were his students -- and destroying, by his own hand, the value of any such alleged "education" he "imparted."

The same applies to anyone else in a position of power -- such as a politician.

Something to think about, eh?

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If you support, vote for, donate to or in any way contribute to this lying, treasonous bitch getting into office you are personally responsible for putting a woman into the White House that had a personal hand in arming terrorists, lied about it, got caught, and then claimed she "never received any subpoenas" over any of it.

House Republicans investigating the 2012 attacks in Benghazi, Libya, on Wednesday released a March subpoena issued to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton, one day after she said in a nationally televised interview that she "never had a subpoena" in the email controversy. 

Rep. Trey Gowdy, R-S.C., chairman of the Benghazi panel, said he had "no choice" but to make the subpoena public "in order to correct the inaccuracy" of Clinton's claim.

Clinton told CNN on Monday that she "never had a subpoena," adding: "Everything I did was permitted by law and regulation." 

Hillary Clinton has been repeatedly proved to be a lying snake when it comes to interactions with everyone.

If you in any way contribute to putting her into office you deserve the ass-ramming you and the rest of this nation will receive.

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Today you're feeling pretty good, right?  Dow is up 200, S&Ps up 22, etc.

Yeah, it's all good; everything is up ~1-2% that was down ~1-2% yesterday.  It's all ok.

Well, no.

The IMF is not going to change the rules on its "loans" to Greece.  Any "deal" that does not actually burn up -- that is, extinguish -- about half to two-thirds of their outstanding debt is unsustainable and unworkable.

But a deal that does cut said debt means that the next demand will come from Spain, France or Italy and then it will snowball because the ECB fabricated itself what amounted to a levy on the entire EU membership to protect a handful of big banks that had bet on the Greek debt a few years ago, effectively taking almost all of it onto its balance sheet.

If that debt either is haircut or defaults then the ECB is insolvent as it, like all central banks, has almost no capital compared against the size of its balance sheet and it would be forced to issue a capital call to the member nations.

In short the governments of the EU nations would be called upon to "make good" the haircut amounts!  

Any guess at how many middle fingers will go up if that occurs?

This is why the situation is intractable -- and explosive.

I don't expect anything real to happen over the weekend, and as a result..... I do expect plenty of mortars set off on people's heads at said "summit".

This will be fun to watch but do so from a reasonable distance.

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2015-07-09 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific , 189 references

Mark my words... from April:

So what we have here is an overpriced "fashion statement" that has crap for battery life, is relatively bulky and doesn't have its own internal intelligence to do much (it relies on your phone.)  The one thing it appears to do well is serve as a workout timer and (provided you don't mind small storage) a means of music playback to bluetooth headphones.  That is a nice capability, but is it worth $350 for one piece of functionality that I currently don't have and might enjoy?

I think not.

And that, of course, is for the plastic piece-o-crap version.  The metal one is some $700 and it gets worse from there.

I have some channel data that suggests sales have been absolutely abysmal.  As in basically zip, zero, nada after the first rush of iDiots who just had to buy one sight unseen, with volumes collapsing over the last couple of months.


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