Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 204,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, professional and technical services, manufacturing, and health care.
Well now, so much for the "government shutdown." Can I vote for one all the time given this result?
Let's look at the household numbers, because when you do this report is a disaster and in fact is now saying we're on the cusp of a recession if not already in one.
Note the annualized rate of change. It is on the cusp of going negative and that has a high correlation with recession.
The total number of employed people decreased on a month-by-month basis. The trend may be up, but not by much.
The employment rate of the population is following the same pattern of the last four years, and is declining again. This is a flat-line -- there has been no improvement since 2009.
Population-adjusted, the employment situation took a steep header this month.
Temporary layoffs went up by about 300,000, but all other loser categories decreased. So much for the "terrible" federal shutdown -- the facts say it was good for the economy, not bad.
The workweek was unchanged and average hourly earnings were up 2 cents. Among production employees average workweek hours were down a tenth to 33.6. Neither of these figures are particularly significant.
This is a crap report on the facts, but it says that the screaming about the government shutdown was not bad, it was on-balance good. The market is taking it quite negatively -- whether that's because the screaming about the government shutdown has been disproved or whether it's because on any sort of dispassionate look this is a recession print is an open question.
Note that ADP is private-sector only and therefore does not include government.
ROSELAND, N.J. – October 30, 2013 – Private sector employment increased by 130,000 jobs from September to October, according to the October ADP National Employment Report®.
Meh. The interesting change here is that 81,000 of this was in large businesses, which is a big problem -- small business has basically shut down, ex-construction which did have some gain.
There's just no growth in employment folks; this is well under the population figure and belies the fact that the employment labor-participation ratio has not moved since 2009, despite the so-called "improvement" in the economy.
Incidentally this strongly implies that the entire move in the market since that point has been "QE" driven rather than driven by actual economic progress, and if that doesn't make the hair on the back of your neck stand up you're not very bright.
The market, of course, goes nuts (higher) as the dollar falls since the premise is that The Fed will destroy even more of your purchasing power -- this, it is believed by Wall Street, will somehow make someone richer (hint: it won't be you)
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 148,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in construction, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing.
Remember, this was pre shutdown, so there is nothing of the government shutdown in this data. That of course means that next month's numbers will be worse (probably under 120k and maybe a five-digit print.)
What does the household number tell us (since the "establishment" data is notoriously unreliable -- read, almost-entirely made up)?
The annualized rate of change is negative, although in absolute terms it remains positive. The household survey says we added about 142,000 actual jobs by count (in other words, roughly matching the official claims.)
The problem with this figure is that we added 209,000 working-age people in the country last month so in fact we lost jobs on a population-adjusted basis.
In addition the employment rate of the population is showing its characteristic peak that usually comes in the summer and has once again turned down:
And finally, if you believe that QE has "helped", perhaps you can explain this chart analytically.
Best of luck with that one.
Incidentally, if you wish to argue that the stock market is not in a monstrous bubble, for extra credit you can explain why it is that the market has more than doubled while labor participation in the economy has not moved a millimeter since 2009.
Thank Congress and Obama for this, because both are responsible for not only enabling this ruinous course of action but actively supporting and promoting it, and then get up, go to the bathroom and take a long, hard look in the mirror where you will find the person(s) ultimately responsible for your own financial destruction.
In the week ending October 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 374,000, an increase of 66,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 308,000. The 4-week moving average was 325,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 305,000.
Well golly gee, what happened?
That's simple -- we actually got numbers from the various states that have not been reporting.
So what does this tell us retrospectively about the so-called "good" numbers of late? It probably tells us that those numbers were bogus. Is that a surprise?
Let's look at the big table.
How in the hell did that happen?
Note that this table is several weeks behind. Further, all of the numbers surrounding this date in the big table have been at the formerly-depressed level right near 300k.
I wonder -- did someone slip here and let the cat out of the bag -- that the last month or so worth of claims figures have been entirely made up?
From the Department of Lies (they can't stop lying even when the government is shut down):
In the week ending September 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 308,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 307,000. The 4-week moving average was 305,000, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average of 308,750.
How about the big table?
Hmmm..... we have a big drop in regular state claims here in the second week of September, but a huge roll-down into EUC 2008 -- a program that is supposed to be going away.
My deduction, given the utterly trashy ADP numbers, is that what we're seeing is not an improvement in the labor market but rather a lack of eligible claimants.
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker
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