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2020-04-08 16:27 by Karl Denninger
in Flash , 231 references
[Comments enabled]  

Oh my....


IHME claims Florida, today, in their update today, which means it's not a projection it's a statement of fact that the state will require 3,932 beds -- a range of 2,001 - 7,026.

But Florida has only required 1,956 beds and note their definition of "beds"; it is anyone who has ever required a bed, not one that is occupied right now.  So all those discharged and ok or dead count as beds.

So at an absolute minimum you can subtract all the deaths; they are not tracking the discharges, but obviously there have been many.

In other words the model which is not projecting here, it is claiming fact, is once again lying.


What's even better is that the model now predicts about 60,000 total deaths -- in other words, approximately as many as a normal flu season!  What was that about this bug not being "a normal flu" again?


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2020-04-07 10:20 by Karl Denninger
in Flash , 246 references
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When there are two exponential curves (e.g. GDP at 1.04, or 4% and Medicare at 1.08, or 8%) where the larger relies on the former to pay for or otherwise enable it you are eventually ****ed.  Period.

This, by the way, is pointed out in Leverage (my book from 2011) -- anyone who argues otherwise is lying.  Not mistaken, lying.

We are only arguing when the bad outcome occurs, not whether it will.  It will, 100% of the time.

Next up, something like this virus:

1. If the exponent (R0) is increasing you are on the upside and the rate is accelerating.  This is bad.

2. If the exponent (R0) is stable but over 1.0 then your transmission rate is stable in the population.  This produces a geometric series but the hosing you are going to take is neither getting worse or better.

3. If the exponent (R0) is decreasing but above 1.0 you are on the downside and the rate is decelerating.  This is good.  You are still going to take a hosing but the hosing is getting less-severe with every passing day.

4. If the exponent (R0) is below 1.0 then the contagion is extinguishing.  This does not mean that the total cases will go to zero permanently; that latter outcome requires there are no reservoirs and that R0 will never go over 1.0 again.

The facts are that it takes time - approximately 5 days for symptoms to first appear, and 5-10 days before they're serious enough that you will be tested if you ask, so whatever case growth rate you measure is 5-10 days behind the actual infection event.

It is a fact that the slope of the R0, measured empirically on a retrospective basis, and thus not subject to opinion, rolled over before the "mitigations" took effect in every case and further, the slope has not changed to the negative since they were put in place.  This trend has continued -- here is that same chart updated to last night.


This is mathematical proof -- not inference, proof -- that the mitigation measures were neither responsible for the rollover nor did they further improve same.

The economic damage we have and continue to take were and are unwarranted; they have done nothing to advance public health.  That is a fact.  That the governors and President believed we were in an increasing R0 environment at the time the measures were adopted does not exonerate them from immediately reversing same as soon as the fact that they were wrong became evident, which occurred less than a week after the measures were imposed.

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2020-04-06 16:10 by Karl Denninger
in Flash , 320 references
[Comments enabled]  

So the other day....


And today...

Heh, I get it that you can change a projection but how do you change the past?  Don't you have to norm your model to the actual past in order to avoid failing the giggle test?

And the other day...


And now....

Again, this doesn't pass the giggle test; you can project forward with a model but the past is, well, the past -- it's fact, and your model has to conform to the actual past or it's not a model, it's a fraud.

Is that shoot me now or shoot "those who ran a complete line of now-proved bull**** that scared the hell out of everyone in the country, caused governors to close down states, falsely arrest their entire citizenry, threw 20 million people out of work and destroyed the economy WITH WHAT THEY NOW ADMIT WERE FALSE PROJECTIONS THAT WERE MULTIPLES OF ACTUAL OUTCOMES AND NOW THEY HAVE THE AUDACITY TO TRY TO HIDE ITnow?

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2020-04-05 13:52 by Karl Denninger
in Flash , 390 references
[Comments enabled]  

I told you so!

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned that if the coronavirus outbreak does not get “globally under control,” it is likely to become a recurring problem.

Of course it will be a recurring problem.

You can't get this globally under control. 

Fauci said that people must be prepared for a resurgence next year, 

But you said we'd beat this and we couldn't reopen the economy until the deaths and cases went to an effective zero, and then it would be ok!  You lied again!

Never mind that we now know it infects and can be transmitted by cats, which means forget about "control" since it has already gotten into the feral cat population worldwide, that will serve as a reservoir and vector and there's no way to get rid of it.

Stop the shutdowns now.  They're worthless.  We're taking this economic damage in a mutual suicide pact for no reason.

The virus is going to do what it will do.  There will be no therapeutics or vaccine that we can develop, test and deploy beyond what we have available right now, which isn't perfect but appears to work a good part of the time and should be deployed aggressive at first sign of infection, not only when you are flat on your ass in the hospitalin an attempt to keep people out of the hospital.



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2020-04-03 14:27 by Karl Denninger
in Flash , 640 references
[Comments enabled]  

Every place is the same in a given state.

Thus we issue state-wide orders.

And then, businesses, which had operated on the assumption that "15 days to slow the spread" actually meant 15 days well, you boned them.

You, and Donald Trump, bent all those businesses over the table and screwed them up the ass.

Now the furloughs at Disney are starting.  There is no reopening date.  There is nothing that a business can count on other than that you have lied and therefore you are assumed to be lying now and in the future.

Never mind that you can print money but not stuff.  The choices at even the pizza places are going down the hole.  Oh, you could get 15 different toppings but now there are only five.  Where'd the other 10 go?  Oh, the truck didn't show up with them.

I wanted some Ginger Beer.  Pretty common thing.  Sugared, sure they got that.  Sugar-free?  Nope.  What?  That's never been out of stock in the last three years around here.  It is now.  I wonder what truck didn't come this time?  And why is the soup aisle half-empty?  Chocolates?  If you want this -- but not that.  And so it goes on and on and on.

Remember, these are "essential" goods.  So why are they not there?  Some get that "essential" thing just a wee bit wrong?

I know, I'll buy what I want on Amazon!  Oh wait -- whatever I need isn't a priority (heh wait, I thought all this logistics stuff was going to be fine) and thus it won't be delivered for three weeks.  No, I'm not kidding: It's in stock but it won't be delivered for three weeks in one case.  Never mind; I'll do without it.  Both now and later; that's commerce that will never happen.

How long before something important breaks this way?  We're told "essential businesses" will remain open.  Tell that to the Virginia mines that just shut down.  Coal mines.  You know, energy, one of those essential businesses?  Oops.

My local bank is "teller at drive-up only."  That's nice.

What if I need a document out of my safe-deposit box?

What if I run one of those "essential" businesses, had a computer failure and needed the backup hard drives in that safe deposit box right now?


People are ****ing idiots.

All of you.

The public are idiots.

And the Governors, and the Representatives, and Senators, and President?

They're not idiots; they knew all of this -- that they couldn't possibly figure out all the connections between things and they knew that their "15 days" was a scam from the start -- and lied.

Every one of them lied.

Oh, you can have a small business loan.  If you have an existing loan with one of the banks.  What if you didn't need a loan until the government forced you to close, and now you can't pay the rent, which incidentally was due yesterday?

Maybe you should have defended your business like some Koreans did during the Rodney King riots eh?  Those firms didn't get torched; everyone else did.  Oh, but this was the government and they're here to help me.  They'd never do anything like that.

How's that working out?

They torched your business while you stood by and watched, waving at them because they promised you it would be ok.


Oh, and how long before something really important breaks?

You know, like the little things that make the water flow out of the tap, your sewer work so it doesn't back up into the house, and the electricity is in your outlets so your refer, your stove and your furnace all function?

Yeah, we know where all the interconnections are.  We have this folks -- trust us, we're from the government.  Just like all those small businesses were well-served by that same trust.

Oh, and there wouldn't be something important that, oh, a nuclear plant might need, right?  Naw, that could never happen.  Don't worry, if you wind up glowing in the dark they'll apologize.

This is the same government that put up a "flatten the curve" chart, along with a scold group with a strikingly similar model on the Internet, scaring governors into locking down their states with a curve that only went out three months because if you went further you'd see the monster spike in coronavirus cases of almost exactly the same size when the lockdowns are released -- the same spike that would occur if you did nothing.

You know, the spike that they said was going to kill everyone?

It's still there -- they just didn't bother using a long enough piece of paper so you don't see it.  They know it's there -- but if they showed you that you would have never put up with this bull**** in the first place.

They know that too.

I've been pointing this out -- that all these "projections" and "mitigations" were a fraud since this pandemic began because viruses don't give a crap about politics and there's no prayer in Hell of a vaccine for at least 18 months and more likely 2-3 years, if one is ever found.

Of course they don't know the denominator either, which means the models are trash from the outset.  Nobody knows where we really are.  I have a guess based on reverse-calculating case counts but.... it's a guess.  They won't have those numbers for a long time and Fauci doesn't think it's a priority to test for antibodies, which is how you get those numbers.

Then there are the people you really **** -- 7,700 Americans each and every day who you steal precious social moments from and who go on to die without them.  You can't ever make that up to any of them or their families no matter what you do -- apologies, money, nothing will ever fix that because it can't.  Since I posted that podcast my email box and DMs have been flowing with people relating how badly you ****ed their loved ones, and them.  You can never make that up to any of those people.  You're MONSTERS, all of you, for doing this and you will burn in Hell for it -- of that I'm utterly CERTAIN.

Open the economy.  Do it now.  Admit you were wrong, that we can't evade what's going to happen whether we like it or not, and that we just have to suck it up and deal with it.  Let the 7,700 people who are going to die today have their small social pleasures, along with their families.  I don't like death and you don't have to like it -- but not liking it doesn't make it not true.  For those at higher risk they can try to evade the virus by self-isolating or even attempting prophylaxis.  They might succeed and they might fail but it's better for everyone if we take our lumps now while there's still something left of our economy to pick up the pieces with.  Never mind that if we defer this into the summer and fall and it comes back with a vengeance into the fall and winter, during flu season, it will kill far more people than it will if we just suck it up and deal with it now.


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