The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets- Category [Employment]

CNBS is once again claiming goldilocks -- horsecrap.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, retail trade, and construction.

6.2% is up a tick from last month.  Let's look inside.

Meh.  This is, roughly, the month where the cyclical peak happens in the annual job picture.  Now this may change this year, and the trend may not follow, but in general compared against 2011 (where it looks like we peaked) things are not really getting better.

Note both 2000 and 2006-7; the pace in jobs turns before the economy and other macro indicators go down the bowl.  We now have half this year in the bag and the "adds" are decelerating.

Population-adjusted there is no improvement and hasn't been historically -- since 2000!  This, incidentally, is why "monetary policy" cannot fix what's broken in the economy -- at the core the problem isn't monetary policy and hasn't been over the last 15 years.

Monetary policy is in fact a scam attempting to paper over the intentional destruction of purchasing power by our Federal Government -- asset prices have been substituted for economic prosperity.

The labor:population ratio was unchanged this month while the "formal unemployment rate" ticked up one.

Note that the household unadjusted increase is 161,000, but 366,000 people re-entered the labor force, roughly double the actual add.

Another warning came in the internals in the form of the manufacturing workweek -- it was down 0.2 hours.  The Chicago PMI missed big yesterday although that was largely ignored in the bloodbath that was already taking place in the markets.  This portends a likely miss in the national ISM -- particularly with manufacturing hours contracting.

With utterly nobody looking for a recession and policy rates pinned to the floor it will be rather interesting if the patterns that have historically played pretty well once again turn out to be valid.....

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