The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets- Category [Health Reform]

It's not, in fact, that he stated that the point of how Obamacare was passed was to defraud the public.

And yes, that is what he said, as I pointed out previously.

No, the real problem is found here:

Now America is about to see Gruber in a new role: congressional witness. He’s going to Capitol Hill on Tuesday to testify before Darrell Issa’s committee, where he’ll be forced to answer a ton of questions, if he can, about all those things he said. For some Republicans, Gruber is a dream witness: All they have to do is play the videos that confirm their worst suspicions about President Barack Obama’s signature health care law—especially the one where Gruber boasts that “lack of transparency [about the law] is a huge political advantage”—and watch him squirm. Better yet, they can ask him about the video that presents the biggest danger of all to the White House: the one where he undermines the Obama administration’s case in the upcoming Supreme Court lawsuit that could bring a screeching halt to subsidies for millions of Obamacare customers.

It's amusing to see Politico come to Jesus on this, as I pointed that out too.

The Supreme Court, should they rule that the Obamacare law only permits subsidies in places where states set up their own exchanges, will result in the cessation (and possible retroactive clawback) of subsidies given to people in all the states without state-run exchanges -- including Florida.

Should that happen the system will instantly collapse, as with the removal of the subsidy will come the removal of the coverage requirement.  In that event I and millions of other healthy people will immediately drop our give to the sick coverage and buy only what we actually need to cover only our actual persons.  The resulting collapse of transfer payments will destroy Obamacare on an instant and irrevocable basis, and also likely destroy the state budgets of those states that decided to expand Medicaid!

The impact of this decision, should it go that way, will reach north of a trillion dollars in the first year alone.  

It'll be the end of Obamacare, whether Obama likes it or not.

Given the Supreme Court's history in willfully ignoring both statutory construction and the Constitution when it suits the government, however, I have no way to handicap that outcome -- but certainly, Gruber's statements on legislative intent, never mind the actual language in the law itself, strongly urge the court to rule that such subsidies are not available in non-state-run exchange states.

Watch this one closely folks; it will come out of the Supremes sometime next year and promises to be the most-important decision they will issue -- by far -- in 2015.

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You have the authority, States.

You have it because McCarran-Ferguson not only exempts insurance businesses from federal regulation it also exempts them from federal antitrust law, and in addition reserves that regulatory authority to the States.

It was not modified by Obamacare!

That is, the authority it grants still exists and this means that state Racketeering statutes, along with anti-trust statutes, absolutely apply should the States want them to.

Either the States do this or they are going to go bankrupt -- including Illinois!

Belz concluded that a 1970 constitutional provision barring cuts to public employee retirement benefits trumps the state’s claim that it has the power to trim future cost-of-living adjustments and delay retirement eligibility for some workers.

“The court finds there is no police power or reserved sovereign power to diminish pension benefits,” he said, voiding the legislation in its entirety and permanently barring the state from enforcing any part of it.

Stupidity has consequences.  In this case the stupidity dates to 1970.

However, there remains one way out: Start prosecuting the insurance and medical industry for violating anti-trust law.

If you need to change laws to enable that prosecution first, then do so.  That the States can absolutely do.

Then start locking people up -- and collapse the cost of medical care by 80-90%.

Problem solved.

The courts are foreclosing the other option -- interdicting the problem for public unions but still screwing the non-union public.  This leaves only one path: Fix it for everyone.

All it takes is one state that does so and it will gain huge competitive advantage.  People will flock there -- and away from the states that refuse to follow suit.

You're out of time Illinois, and so are other states.

Either act, or not.  Your choice.

But you can't force people to remain in a ****hole of your design and construction, intended to and acting to bankrupt everyone in it.

Time's up.

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