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FACT: Masks against Covid-19 do not work because under the laws of physics they can't and both governors and mayors have and continue to kill your grandfather for political reasons.
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2020-07-25 09:01 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 3237 references
[Comments enabled]  

I know, I said I was done.

But I write on scams all the time and have for more than 12 years.  In fact one of my very first articles was on WaMu (the bank) that was running a massive scam by paying dividends with money that didn't exist (they collapsed, along with a bunch of other banks, about a year later after the government did nothing to put a stop to it.)

Covid-19 testing has become a scam.

What was originally intended to inform public policy, public health and individual care decisions has now turned into a monstrous money-sucking rapejob aimed directly at the American public while making so-called "testing" companies such as Quest billions.

Let me be quite clear:

No test results that extend beyond a single infectious turn time are useful for informing public health.

No test results that extend beyond your viral replication peak are useful for informing individual care decisions.

The entire thing has now turned into a monstrous scam that exists for one purpose only: To rob you of the funds paying for the tests.  It serves no personal medical or public health purpose.

Let's start with individual care decisions.  Only a test that comes back within hours is useful to you as a person if you believe you may have Covid19.


Because without exception interventions (medications) you can take to interrupt or mitigate viral replication become useless once replication is complete.  One example is hydroxychloroquine, a drug that in 2005 Anthony Fauci himself said was "the answer" to SARS.  Ivermectin is another that may work on the same sort of mechanism.  Both, despite the screaming in the press, are extremely safe and have been used for a long time.  Ivermectin is so safe that we let non-medical people hand it out in third-world nations; it is a single-dose medication.  HCQ is used by some three million Americans with RA or Lupus on a regular basis.  While all drugs have risk these are two that have a long-established safety record.

Once you show symptoms to a viral disease you are at or near the midpoint of viral replication.  Within as little as a day -- and perhaps in as little as 12 hours -- any therapy intended to interrupt that process is a waste of time and money because viral replication in your body is exponential.  Any therapy that cannot help you now has no benefits, just as a cloth mask has no benefits, but does have risks.  It therefore is worse than useless; it can only do harm.

There is no point in going to take a test if you do not get actionable information from the test.  Within two days or so from the time you show symptoms you will either be improving or you will be in the hospital.  If you cannot get results within hours after symptoms appear then the opportunity to intervene in viral replication is gone.  In other words your state's testing system is intentionally causing you to spend money, either directly or through an insurance arrangement (whether through your health insurance plan or by the state paying for it and taxing you for those funds) for no personal benefit whatsoever

Let me repeat that: ALL lab (not "10 minute result, point-of-care") Covid19 tests that do not return results to you within a couple of hours are of no personal benefit to you of any kind because the results will come too late for you to do anything useful with the knowledge they impart.  There is exactly zero reason for you to take a Covid19 test if you cannot wait for the results in the parking lot as it will not, with absolute scientific certainty, give you any actionable information.

Yesterday these labs ran more than three quarters of a million tests in the United States and for all that did not return results within a few hours their value to the person tested was zero.

Would you accept a "test" for diabetes that didn't give you results until after your foot was full of gangrene and fell off?  That's what we're talking about here.

Delays of more than a day or so also make contact tracing, quarantine and isolation worthless.  Why?  Because without the result how do you know who to try to trace contacts from, and against whom to issue a quarantine order?  Further, if you are going to get a mild case and you're not infectious by the time the results come back then a quarantine order issued against you at that point is legally void and is in fact kidnapping or false arrest, a serious felony. Quarantine orders are only valid against infectious persons.  You have every moral and ethical right to resist being kidnapped when the person doing so has designed and implemented a pretext said government goon knows is worthless with whatever force is necessary to do so.  Indeed, the CDC itself says that if you're fever-free for 24 hours and 10 days have passed after symptoms began risk no longer exists.  So if you felt "off", three days later you're actively sick, you go get tested and the results do not come back for a week so long as you have not had a fever for 24 hours any quarantine order is facially invalid.

Worse, this scam has made contact tracing worthless because by the time you get the positive result and thus trace contacts not only has the person spread the bug to whatever extent they can since they're no longer infectious but worse, whoever got it from them is likely contagious already and has spread it again!  By the time they get the results back from their tests the cycle repeats and the entire scheme is of no value to public health whatsoever.  You've taken what has a legitimate public health purpose and turned it into a gigantic scam that has no valid purpose; it is simple make-work harassment.  Utterly nobody should cooperate with any such "contact tracer" for this reason; it is not that the purpose is invalid it is that the testing delay makes the attempt pointless for the alleged claimed purpose.  Unless you have a positive result back within 24 hours tell them all to go **** goats; there is no value in so-called "tracing" at that point.

And finally such reports make analyzing epidemiological trends impossible other than in retrospect, which is an interesting data analysis exercise after the entire thing is over but tells us exactly nothing about what is going on at the ground-level in a given community right now.  The roughly 3-5 day median period before symptoms appear is a latency we cannot change, but adding to it beyond one viral replication time makes any sort of tracking of what's going on in terms of the evolution of the outbreak worthless to inform public policy response.  This in turn makes any so-called mitigations worthless as well since by the time you can determine what they do you've trashed the economy and, if there is no benefit, or worse, harm occurs, you have permitted that harm to compound at an exponential rate.  This also leads so-called "health departments" claiming "we need to give it more time" when something is done -- which is fine if it works but if it doesn't then it takes whatever harm is occurring and multiples it by whatever (Rt * viral period) happens to be in the delay of the results.

For example if you issue a mask mandate and it actually increases spread you will see that outcome start to show up in one viral replication time.  But if your tests are not consistently back the next day (some are immediate, some come back in a couple of days, some come back in a week) the harm will show up as a small portion of the total signal generated and you may claim you need more time to evaluate the action.  If the action causes harm then you just screwed two to four times as many people by not acting on the original signal because you didn't believe it.  This has led to what's going on in my county right now where the data is clear -- the "mask mandate" either did nothing or actually increased transmission; the signal showed up exactly five days after the order went into effect (one incubation period) but because a large percentage of tests are not "point of care" (but not all) you see public health authorities ignoring the signal.  Well, that sucked big ones because now, fifteen days after the order went into effect not only has the signal not gone away (they're wrong about test reporting delays meaning "the gay will go away if we just pray harder!") what was a small signal has now bloomed into the full effect and has led to the highest one-day spike in new cases since the start of the outbreak on the 23rdan outcome either in spite of or worse caused by the mask order and which might have been avoided if, a few days after the 15th, the data was believed and the order rescinded.

It's time to cut the bull**** and shut it all down.  The virus is going to do what it's going to do; we have no effective response within any part of the government at this point so all we can do is treat cases as they appear aggressively and make damn sure we don't vector the disease into vulnerable populations.  For those who live in the general community and are at high risk go buy a P100 and use it when outside your own home or vehicle; that might work for you personally.  We can't get accurate data, we're claiming that someone who had a motorcycle wreck was a "Covid19" death, we're issuing quarantine orders against people who are no longer infectious which destroys their earnings at their job and does direct and serious harm to the economy, we're "tracing" people for no purpose whatsoever because we sat on the results until after their contacts already got the bug and passed it on themselves and we're creating a climate of fear-porn all over the media in results that are a look back which has no diagnostic or public health value.

What was a clear attempt to inform both public health an individual care decisions has now turned into nothing more than a scam.  There exist today tests that cost a buck or two, can give you results in 10 minutes from saliva and while they're not as sensitive as a lab test they detect infectious people, which is the entire point.  These are not being sold in Walgreens and CVS right here and now for one reason and one reason only -- they stop the scam instantly as they create no record, are personal to you and are also extremely cheap just like a home pregnancy test that can be had for a couple of bucks -- and in addition since they're both cheap and immediate-result they tell people that they need to stay home which will instantly stop transmission and thus collapse the entire so-called "emergency."

Oh, and Arizona has folded back and several others are in the process of doing so.  In point of fact the so-called "mitigations" have done exactly nothing; as soon as they are relaxed the virus comes back and completes the same replication sequence it was going to undertake all on its own, and when it reaches suppression levels it starts to die down, exactly as mathematics predict.  There never was 100% susceptibility to this virus, we knew that in February and now know why on a scientific basis, and as such all the fear porn was flat-out bull**** right from the start.  We've bought billions of dollars worth of useless ventilators that kill people, we've ignored therapeutics we know work by delaying their use until their benefit window has closed and we've built a "testing and contact tracing" infrastructure that does nothing other than waste money and effectively kidnap citizens who are no longer infectious.

All the so-called "experts" know it too.  Witness Fauci being caught on camera multiple times taking his mask off as soon as he thinks the camera is off him.  It wasn't just at the ballpark the other day; he was caught doing the same thing at a briefing, which everyone seems to forget with their 30 second attention spans and bong-hit addled brain.  He knows damn well masks don't work and in fact said they were nothing more than a placebo a few months ago.

Stop the charade.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)

2020-07-17 10:10 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 6520 references
[Comments enabled]  

I'm tired of repeating myself.

The answers to Covid exist.

We know this because it's been figured out.

I pointed it out in March and I'm tired of tilting at windmills.

So here it is, one last time.

Wake the **** up, do whatever is necessary to stop it or stew in it and watch your elderly and ill loved ones die along with the economic destruction you are causing through your own bootlicking because I'm done with baying at the moon while every ******ned jackwad in the media and elsewhere is making bank off claims that the world is coming to an end.

Singapore had a horrid problem with PPE in their hospitals like everyone else when Covid hit and their health care workers were getting Covid just like everywhere else.  Rather than screaming at people they took what they learned from SARS and instituted militant hand-washing before and after every contact with a person or thing.

They found when they did this that other than being directly exposed to someone coughing or when performing a high-aerosol procedure like intubation their staff didn't need N95s and other high-grade PPE yet their transmission rate to and between their staff went to a statistical zero.

Again: Singapore achieved statistical ZERO health care transmission almost-immediately.

Note what they did though.

Touch something, wash your hands with soap and water.

Touch a person, same deal.

Both before and after any such intentional contact, and immediately after any unintentional contact.  If there's inadvertent contact you stop what you're doing and wash your ****ing hands.

None of this bull**** "hand sanitizer" nonsense; soap and water.

I reported on this in March as at the time it was screamingly obvious that health care was the vector for this bug and it wasn't in the air; it was coming out your ass I've written several articles on this exact point.  MIT has even tested and proved they can find the virus in municipal sewer flows!  Indeed now we have universities stating they will use such surveillance to detect Covid on campus in the fall. 

Yet nobody has gone anywhere near that fact in the press nor in the so-called "expert" community.

Why not?

Because if you do then the entire house of cards they have built collapses and so do the lockdowns, mask orders and claim that "we're all in this together", "only a vaccine will save us" and "we all have to do our part."  Every bit of that is a bald-faced intentional lie.

In one of these early articles I pointed to a small cluster of cases in hospital workers in Minnesota.  At the time there were very few civilian (not health care) cases; fewer than 400 in the entire state. I said that they'd get hammered if this pattern held; at the time something like a quarter of all cases in Minnesota were among health care workers - 133 out of 503.  Contemplate the insanity of that for a minute; the very people trained to use PPE and avoid infection, allegedly following said rules and wearing masks, were getting infected like crazy.

Not long after that the state case and fatality rate blew up in their face.

Minnesota now has over 47,000 cases and a fatality rate of 3.59%.

That's roughly where the nation is in terms of fatality rate overall, although if you look at the most recent data the CFR-10 (fatality rate of cases diagnosed 10 days earlier) is down to right around 1%.

Note that every one of those health-care workers had masks on when anywhere near someone who might be contagious.  It did nothing and they got hammered anyway.  These are trained professionals.  If it didn't work for them it's factually going to be useless for you, which incidentally is exactly what 14 Random Controlled Trials say about masks and viruses -- they don't work.  That's not surprising; physics says they shouldn't work as the median respiratory droplet size is sub-micron, a single such particle can contain enough virons to infect you, particles of that size are inhaled deep into the lungs and particles of that size go right through anything less than an N95 in both directions with very few to nearly none of them being trapped.  You're trying to stop mosquitoes with a chain-link fence!

Now contrast this with Singapore.

Singapore has a population density approximately equal to NYC on a national basis.  It's a tiny little country with a ****-ton of people in it on a per-square-mile basis.  Yet by cutting off health care transmission their case fatality rate went to under 0.06% and has stayed there.

That's right -- less than the seasonal flu.

Yes, they locked down hard for two months.  That turned out to be stupid.  They feared another SARS outbreak, and not without reason.  SARS killed 15% of those who got it in Singapore, and they slammed the door on Covid-19 just as hard because they feared a repeat.

Instead they got.... the flu.  Literally the seasonal flu.

There are still people getting Covid19 in Singapore.  A few hundred a day.  Despite their outrageously-stringent measures, which we could never implement in the Untied States without an immediate societal and economic collapse, they failed to stop the virus but did slow it down.  However nobody, statistically-speaking, is dying of it.  Whoever gets it gets whatever they're doing today to treat it and that's the end of it.  They get it, they get treated for it, they recover, their hospital system did not blow up and life goes on.

Who gives a crap how many people get Covid-19 if it doesn't kill anyone?

I remind you that SARS was actually a deadly virus.  When Singapore had that one go through their nation it infected just 238 people but killed 33 of them.  Now that's a deadly virus; roughly 15% of the people who got that bug died.  Every other nation's experience with SARS was similar; it had a roughly 15% fatality rate generally and 50% in those over 65.

Now they've had Covid19 go through their nation and when it started they thought it might be the same sort of virus (big shock, given their previous experience with a SARS!) and found that..... if you don't transmit it through and in the health care system nobody dies.

But further, despite their draconian lockdown measures which are utterly impossible in any Western nation Covid has infected two hundred times as many people as SARS did.

Out of over 46,000 confirmed cases they've had a grand total of 27 deaths.

Approximately 0.06%.

Big ****ing deal; the ordinary seasonal flu is more-deadly.

Their lockdown was dumb; it utterly failed to stop the spread in that two hundred times as many people got infected (and are still being infected) but given that Singapore got hammered by SARS and feared a repeat I can understand why they did it; they didn't know.

Now they do.

Go document what Singapore does in their health care system to treat this disease and stop cramming the virus into vulnerable people by health care workers.  People will stop dying immediately.  Viruses are not racist and do not give a crap about your political bent.


This is a small island nation that immediately upon detection achieved zero health care vectoring of this bug.  In contrast in the United States we vectored disease into nursing homes and other vulnerable people, including "home health care" and by doing so we killed over one hundred thousand people who should not have died.  Nursing homes alone account for roughly half of our Covid-19 losses thus far.  I'm willing to bet that a dispassionate analysis will find that 90% or more of the deaths are ultimately traceable to a nosocomial (that is, health care) transmission. The crazy prevalence of nurses and others getting infected in the hospitals is even more outrageous because, as was documented in NYC, most of the actual infections there occurred in households.

How do you think it got in those households?

From the health care workers who failed to contain it inside the hospitals.

This is homicide and likely accounts for, on a statistical basis, all of the deaths.

This very pattern is continuing today folks.  There is no possible natural explanation for a sixty-five fold difference in death rates.  A 6,500% difference in death rate for the same virus between modern, economically-advanced nations is not due to natural causes; that's impossible.

That ridiculously-elevated death rate keeps happening because we refuse to cut off the vector into those people who the virus can actually kill and we continue to treat the people with the disease inappropriately -- killing them instead of helping them.  The scream-fest about ventilators is just part of it; we knew in February that ventilators were an inappropriate treatment and killed people instead of helping them and yet we bought and provided them by the tens of thousands anyway.  The federal government knows the health care system has been and is killing people and has known it since February 4th, which is why it extended liability protection to all health care providers and suppliers and has not rescinded said protection.  The Federal Government is not alone; most if not all State Governors have done so as well, including so-called "Red State" governors such as Lee of Tennessee.

The vector that kills is not the common person on the street, in the store or in a bar.  It just isn't; that's what the data tells us.

It might have been reasonable on February 4th to extend said liability protection for 30 days to allow the health care system to adjust procedure and shut off this vector.  To extend said protections beyond the beginning of March is proof positive that neither State or Federal officials give a damn about your grandmother; in fact, they are intentionally fomenting death to the tune of sixty-five times what a civilized nation can achieve -- if it displays one whit of concern for human life.

As further proof of the malfeasance and where the predominant vector for spread lies in an ICU in Iran they tried to capture Covid-19 in the air 2m away from severely ill patients.  They failed to find virus.  If it's not in the airborne environment in an ICU where severely sick people are with the virus then explain to me why I should believe that an asymptomatic person is going to kill me in the grocery store with their breath?

In short statistically-speaking if you can't manage to isolate the virus in air around severely-ill people who have it the worst of all then the only rational conclusion is that's not the primary or even a material route of transmission.  To continue to focus there is not only stupid it's flat out criminal homicide.  Never mind the other fairly-recent study where they attempted to find virus in non-coughing patients for influenza, coronavirus and rhinovirus -- and for a huge percentage of those persons they failed. That study was performed under laboratory conditions where they captured all of one's expired breath over a period of 30 minutes.  If you were going to spew out virus from your mouth or nose 30 minutes is certainly long enough for 100% of the people with laboratory confirmed infections and fevers to do so.

Is a "mask order" of value if they can't reliably find virus in the breath of confirmed, symptomatic febrile patients under laboratory conditions?  Obviously not; you can't filter what isn't there.  Should compromised people wear one if they're at particular risk?  That's up to you; the value is likely near-zero but someone might cough in your vicinity.  If you wish to wear a mask (or better, a canister respirator) against that possibility, have at it.

Blanket mask orders are utterly worthless or worse in that that may actually increase the risk of cross-contamination of feces into your mouth and nose; that's the science.

At the same time there are other studies that found virus all over the bathrooms of patient rooms in Covid wards.  Gee, it's not coming out your ass?  Like hell it isn't.  The so-called "choir practice singer" deal?  They shared food after the practice. The group of friends who got it immediately after going to a crowded bar in Jacksonville FL?  Isn't it interesting that only that group of friends was infected and not all the other people in the bar?  I suppose you expect me to believe that they all had an "atmospheric cone of isolation" around them -- and only them.  What's more-likely -- that this "cone" existed to make sure that all of these people got infected or is it more-likely that they all passed around something that was contaminated -- like, for instance, one of their cellphones?

Are there what appear to be confirmed aerosol super-spread events?  Yes, including one very well run-down incident in Germany.  Oh, the bad news? That happened in a meat plant and there was a compulsory mask order as the nation had issued one for workplaces well before the event.  It didn't help -- at all.  But the evidence is that these are actively sick individuals; there is no even reasonably-competent evidence that an asymptomatic infection results in a person who actually spreads the virus.  This is likely due to pre-existing resistance in the asymptomatic person which in turn prevents accumulation of a viral load sufficient to initiate transmission.  Asymptomatic cases are a social good, not a social bad; they remove you from the pool of people who can transmit the bug for some period of time which helps suppress transmission in the community.  In short you want those infections to happen.

Does Covid-19 occasionally kill a random person?  Sure.  All diseases do, even the flu.  But if you give it to severely compromised persons such as is trivially done in both hospitals and nursing homes you're going to kill 50 times as many, and we in the US, the UK, Italy and everyone else have done exactly that on a repeated basis.

We're still doing it today.

So why has the death rate fallen so drastically -- down by ninety percent since April?

We murdered most of the people who are easy to kill and you can only kill a given person once.  That's why the rate of death is falling in America -- and everywhere else.  What we haven't done -- still, today, six months into this, is cut off the health care vector for this disease.

That failure, six months in, can only be characterized as intentional ladies and gentleman, especially when backed up with liability protection from the government which has been maintained and extended at both State and Federal levels.

Never mind that I've said since Diamond Princess that the base susceptibility is not 100%.  Not even close.  It couldn't be; the rate of infection on that ship (~17%), given an R0 of about 3, strongly suggested that roughly 50% of the population was already immune in whole or part (in other words you can get it but not seriously enough to pass it on or get ill yourself) due to some sort of cross-reactive immunity.  Now it's reported that a peer-reviewed paper in Nature in fact found cross-immunity in 50% of those studied!  These were people who never had Covid19 yet their body's T-cells knew what it was.

This in turn means that when you get to about 15%, more or less, of those in the general population who get Covid-19 it's over from a statistical standpoint.  This matches not only NYC's experience but that of every other region across the world.  It should, and likely will based on the science, play out exactly the same way everywhere else.

NY has had 400,000 "cases." The CDC says there are 10 for every one you catch with a test, so 4 million.  The state has a population of about 20 million people; one in five has had the bug.  With innate immunity of 50% this means they're beyond the herd suppression threshold and indeed, guess what?  850 cases state-wide, which out of 400,000 is a growth rate of 0.21%.  Scared?  If you are, you're nuts; in fact New York reached the suppression rate of prevalence in April.  So did New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts (big shock given how close they are and travel between them.)

Ohio has a way to go; thus their "double spike".  Florida is on the verge of if not entering suppression right now, assuming their fraudulent test reporting is only on negatives that were discarded and doesn't extend to tens of thousands of alleged "infections" that never existed.  California has a way to go yet.  Arizona is right on that level right here, right now.   Their rate will not fall because of "mitigations", it will fall because the virus fails to find more than one new person to infect who will develop disease and thus be able to pass it on for each one that currently is infected.

Where does Arizona stand right now? Their presumptive rate is 19% and guess what -- they're seeing the same pattern.  They just got there, and when they did the same thing happened that happened in New York.  How many times do you need to see the same thing before you take your REEEEEing nonsense and shove it up your own ass?  How many times does it have to happen before you shove your governor's or mayor's mask order up his or her ass?


That's what herd suppression is.  It's what it looks like -- every time.

Think it won't happen in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and everywhere else?

Look at New Jersey (~19.87%.)  Same thing.  New York at 20.81%?  Same thing.  Do you think Cuomo achieved this with his lockdowns and screaming?  All Cuomo did was kill an outrageously high percentage of those who got the virus because he intentionally transmitted it to vulnerable people on a preferential basis.  That ******* ought to be in prison right here, right now and Witless, Wolf and several others ought to be there with him.  We knew damn well after Kirkland that this would happen if the health care vector was not cut off.

Which is more likely: Arizona's "new orders" are responsible given the wide disparity with what New York and New Jersey did or despite the wildly different approaches and the same result occurring at the near-exact same point in community infection it's simply a function of herd suppression?

May I note that the most-restrictive states got there first?  Maybe this is due to them being where the virus came first and has no tie to their "aggressive" lockdown efforts.  Or maybe the health care workers forcing it into vulnerable people and being a larger percentage of the whole on mass transit and similar spiked the transmission rate and made it worse!  Which it is cannot be proved but that "lockdowns" of any severity fail to stop transmission is a documented fact.  We had 50 state laboratories with different standards and..... not one bit of evidence that correlated the rate at which suppression is achieved nor its durability with the policy decisions made.  Instead the evidence is that if you do not reach approximately 2% prevalence of "positive test results" you're not done, and when you do reach that prevalence, you are.  This, of course, assumes that the test results are real; if you report positives that aren't (e.g. "positives" when the person was never even tested!) then good luck trying to figure out where you are.

There's nothing you can do about this and every one of the screamers claiming that susceptibility was ever 100% were and are wrong.  This was never conjecture; it was hard, irrefutable scientific evidence in March when Diamond Princess happened.  Now it's backed up with actual scientific proof in that the expected immunity was found in approximately the same percentage that Diamond Princess showed had to be there in order to explain the experimental results in that closed system; an essentially ideal transmission environment for a virus which nobody would ever let you construct on purpose for ethical reasons.  In addition Diamond Princess was not a one-off; there were multiple cruise ships after that which got into similar trouble with the virus and had similar results.  Note that all SEIR models (IHME, etc) presume random distribution of contacts that could spread disease where it is pure random chance on the presence of a causal chain between a person with it and who is susceptible to it.  This is flat-out garbage in a confined, closed environment.

Any governor or mayor claiming otherwise is not mistaken, nor are "public health experts" who make said claims.  They're liars, frauds, and all of them deserve to be run out of town on a rail with nothing more than their underwear remaining to their name.  These *******s have been and are literally destroying the United States economy and lives, including those of children by keeping schools closed when the facts are the claimed "doomsday" scenario was never on the table because innate immunity was both present and known to be present when this virus first showed up.  Moreover within a month we knew how to control infections so people didn't die.  We knew how because one nation did exactly that and got immediate results.

Most of the people who have died in the United States did not die of a virus acquired by random chance; they were killed by inappropriate, and outrageously-so, actions taken by the health care system and public officials who in fact gave legal immunity for these homicides to the perpetrators who crammed the virus into vulnerable segments of the population and then shoved a breathing tube down their throat despite knowing that this "treatment" was factually lethal.

There is no emergency and in fact there never was.  Not here, not anywhere, other than that which we intentionally are causing.  We know how to beat this because Singapore already has and so-proved in March; cut off the route of infection from and in the health care system to the most-vulnerable people and while many people will get the bug nobody, statistically speaking, will die from it.

The entire premise of "airborne spread" has even garnered explicit scientific fraud in so-called "peer reviewed" articles.  This "study" is one of the "favorites" being cited by #MaskHoles in support of mask mandates.  It was peer-reviewed in mid-June and contains this factual whopper that is a documented, known lie:

... the conditions during the outbreaks in Wuhan, Rome, and NYC correspond to high RH yet low absolute humidity because of low temperature (SI Appendix, Fig. S3). Early experimental work (9) showed remarkable survival for the analogous coronavirus MERS-CoV at the RH level characteristic of the COVID-19 outbreaks in Wuhan, Rome, and NYC. 

It is true that in NYC and Wuhan during the original outbreak there was low absolute humidity.  The authors cite this because it is crucial to their argument that the virus is primarily transmitted via the air.  We've known that every airborne transmitted virus follows that physical law since a seminal study about 10 years ago which gave us the exact reason there is a "flu season" every single year, without fail, in the winter.

But by June we had hard scientific proof that this virus was ignoring this physical fact because there were large-scale outbreaks in the middle of summer in Miami, Phoenix, Dallas and elsewhere.  What's worse is that Ecuador, which of course never has a winter as the Equator literally runs through the nation had an outbreak in March as well that hammered them to an unbelievable degree. Yet they, like everyone else, responded with "mask-mask-mask" which is flat-out stupid for a fecal-transmitted bug.  As a result just as in other nations the virus ran through their country and killed all the easy-to-kill victims.  Their death rate approached nine percent!

Then again so did ours in the first months when we were cramming sick people into nursing homes where there was a concentration of easy-to-kill individuals.

The entire argument for airborne transmission rests on a blown thesis that was factually known to be false at the time of peer review of a published alleged "scientific paper" and yet that paper was not rejected.  Worse, as of today it remains on the PNAS web page and has not been retracted either despite being falsified on its own foundational premise prior to publication!  It is in fact one of the claimed "scientific predicates" behind mask mandates.

People like to talk about "masks", "social distancing" and "shutdowns" but that's a bull**** conversation in the first instance on two known facts.  First, who gives a crap about whether you get a bug if the bug doesn't get you?  If you get a cold or a flu, or nothing at all who cares?  That's a social good, not a social bad; you contribute to those who, at least for a while, can't get it again.  Further the entire premise for primary airborne transmission and thus any claim of "science" behind mask orders, business closures and so-called "social distancing" rests on a blown thesis that was factually disproved in the first week of April.

This isn't "error" or "mistake" -- it's flat-out willful and intentional blindness that is killing people by the score.

We, and the rest of the world, have the answer literally under our nose.  Singapore is a first-world nation with a health care system that spends one fifth of what we do on a percent of GDP basis with a population density similar to New York City and it is wiping the floor with the entire Western World.

Further every single "model" and so-called "expert" has claimed like a damned broken record that everyone is susceptible and thus we're a "long way" away from herd suppression -- a goal that will never be achieved as, they now claim, antibodies wane.  We knew that claim was bull**** when Diamond Princess happened, a virtually perfect and sealed environment that produced only a 17% infection rate; a fact that is flatly impossible given a virus with an R0 of 3.0 and a 100% susceptible population.  The only reasonable explanation was that a huge percentage of the population on that boat, roughly 50%, were already immune either in whole or part.  Now we know scientifically that this is the case.

And oh, by the way, if antibodies wane (and it appears they do) then a vaccine will be worthless too, yet there are myriad so-called "experts" who continue to be "hopeful" about one working.  How'd that work out for HIV/AIDS and those very same experts who have told us there would be a safe and effective vaccine against HIV for the last 20 years?

We also know that "super-spread" events for this bug occur and by definition they're a major contributor to the whole.  While many have been claimed to be from "asymptomatic" people that has repeatedly been proved to be false, with the poster child for it being the South Korean church where the index case woman was obviously very sick.  Interrupting even half of those events would greatly attenuate the spread of the virus and can be done at near-zero cost.  A strong suggestion or even mandate for IR temperature checks for both customers and employees in public accommodations where more than "X" (say 5, or 10) people can gather, or where public-facing employees contact more than "X" people a day would have such an effect.  The equipment to do so is cheap (under $50), it consumes only batteries and is durable equipment that has a service life measured in years, a check takes 1 second, it's objective, it creates no records and denying entry to someone who is febrile irrespective of cause is likely to not only materially reduce Covid19 spread it also will reduce the spread of influenza and other similar diseases.  Those at the lower part of the economic spectrum have the most incentive to go to work when ill for obvious economic reasons -- and also, perversely, have the most contact with customers (e.g. service industry workers.) It would not surprise me if that one intervention alone was sufficient to drop Rt below 1.0 and thus immediately reduce the transmission of both Covid19 and influenza to nuisance levels.

And finally, while I'm sure you can spread this virus through the air the science is that the primary route of transmission is not taking place via that vector.  It was factually established in March that Covid19 was not obeying the laws of physics common to all airborne viral transmission and yet papers were written, circulated and have been relied on as evidence for mask orders and "social distancing" which make the predicate claim for airborne transmission that the virus does indeed follow that physics-dictated pattern when we knew, factually that was false in March and that falsity has been repeatedly proved on an unbroken basis worldwide, including in America.

We've known all of this since March and I've been reporting on all of it since March; five+ months running on a literal daily basis.

It's no longer an accident or an undiscovered thing and hasn't been for months.

It's intentional both by the health care system and our government at all levels -- federal, state and local.

I'm done.

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2020-07-13 08:12 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 821 references
[Comments enabled]  

Oh look, more excuses...

Just a few months back, some scientists hoped summer conditions might help tamp down coronavirus transmission.

Studies have shown simulated sunlight can inactivate the virus on surfaces and in the air, and one study found the virus deteriorates much more quickly in warmer temperatures than in cool temperatures. Some of the other coronaviruses that have long circulated in the population tend to peak in colder months and wane in the summer months, and some thought that summer heat and humidity could work to slow the spread of Covid-19.

Some of the other coronaviruses?

That's a lie.

Every virus that is airborne follows the laws of physics.  Why?  Because they're natural laws, that's why.  They're not The 10 Suggestions any more than gravity is.

We knew in the middle of February this virus spread in scat.  Why?  Because in multiple incidents, including one in Hong Kong, people who did not know each other and lived ten floors apart in apartment buildings got the virus at the same time.  It is implausible that such events could have occurred due to "respiratory droplet" spread; to do so they would have had to have been in the same place at the same time and had the potential to have said contact with one another in a reasonably close and continual basis for at least some material period of time.  That didn't happen so that means of spread is not possible.

So how did the transmission happen?

The building did not, as is common in that part of the world, have "P-Traps" on the sinks.

You don't smell sewer gas in the US because it is code to have P-traps on the sinks and other fixtures connected to the sewer line.  The water trapped in the "P" (or "U") keeps gas from coming back up into the building.  But in many parts of the world there either are no traps as originally installed or people illegally modify the plumbing to add another fixture or other thing, and don't put one in.  There is no compliance monitoring and this happens all the time.  In both these cases the people infected were on the same sewer line and there were no traps on the sinks.

I noted this at the time in my podcast and wrote about it as well.  We knew at that point that the only plausible explanation for how these people got the bug was that (1) it was in crap and (2) it was spreading via other than direct contact with same.  It was that and Diamond Princess that convinced me that this bug was being spread via feces and the galley/food staff were the primary vector.  This, by the way, is the same mechanism by which norovirus, which is common on cruise ships, spreads.  We have since confirmed it is in feces and in fact MIT and others have proposed that we can detect outbreaks in a community before they hit the hospitals by sampling sewer lines.

We've deliberately ignored this evidence for the last five months.

Masks do exactly zero to inhibit fecal/oral transmission.  In fact they are very likely to enhance it since you're more-likely to touch your face with a mask on.  What's worse is that anything less than an N95 is worthless against aerosols, whether as source control or as PPE.  This is well-understood in the scientific literature.

This isn't an error -- it's intentional.  You can't possibly believe that the so-called "experts" did not know that which was in evidence the first few weeks of February and "accidentally" ignored it when said reports were in the public media.

Further, this completely explains the wild spread in nursing homes where some 40-odd percent of the residents are incontinent.  You know, scat-in-the-pants?  How's your laundry-handling procedure in said places to prevent cross-contamination to the poor bastard in the next room?

And it explains why as absolute humidity has risen the virus was not inhibited as everyone expected.  Indeed, it was enhanced.  Why?  Does scat smell more or less in the summer heat?  Is it more or less-likely to wind up on you?  Does norovirus rip through cruise ships in the Caribbean in the summer months?  Did polio do the same thing all summer long?


And by the way the "indoor out-your-mouth" explanation doesn't wash.  Flu and cold don't spread like crazy even indoors in the summer for the same reason.  A/C units remove a huge amount of the suspended water vapor; indeed, nearly all of the power they consume in fact goes to remove said water vapor, which incidentally contains the virus, and down the drain it goes harming nobody.

This also explains the wild spread once it gets into the hospital systems because exactly zero precautions have been taken against transmission from scat including rabid hand-washing with soap and water despite the fact that in SE Asia they figured this out in their hospitals almost immediately and when they did so both their infection and death rates went to nearly zero as did their rate of transmission to health-care workers in the hospitals themselves.

We've ignored it and so the virus has ripped through our communities.  The places where it has not haven't had material penetration into those places.  So long as that holds while an area may have a lot of "cases" they aren't serious and don't kill people.

Further, we know there's a very high level of innate immunity and have since Diamond Princess.  Despite being quarantined together in their cabins only some 17% of the people on board got sick.  It's impossible for two people to be quarantined together in a 10x10 cabin for two weeks with zero PPE where one gets it and the other does not unless the second person is inherently immune.  Therefore we know there is material cross-immunity to this virus -- we just don't know what produces it.

We've known all of this since February folks, and have intentionally ignored it since that time.

Masks do nothing folks -- in fact they're likely worse than nothing for these very same reasons.

If you wish to wear a mask, have at it.  If you believe they will improve your odds of not getting the virus then go ahead and wear one.  My read of the evidence and science is that they do nothing at best either as source control or PPE and thus I decline because from my read of the evidence, which matches that of The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, they increase rather than decrease my personal risk of contracting the virus.  The name for masks and gloves is "PPE" -- personal protective equipment.  If your analysis comes to a different conclusion then you should wear whatever you want.

Politicians and so-called "experts", including Fauci, killed your grandmother.  They did it by maliciously and intentionally ignoring known facts along with ignoring the laws of physics.

Never mind the "warp speed" nonsense for vaccines; the science is that there has never been a successful, long-term protective vaccine against any coronavirus and some intended for animals have made infection worse, including killing the subjects.  This doesn't mean it's impossible but the science is that it's not going to happen no matter how much money you throw at it and worse, short-circuiting any of the normal procedures that exist for safety reasons is flat-out stupid and has an unacceptably-high probability of killing more people than the virus ever could.  In fact we did the exact same thing with HIV/AIDS and AZT, Dr. Anthony Fauci was one of the primary proponents of that "fast track" authority and we shoved 450,000 Americans in the hole who died of AIDS.  As it turns out AZT not only was worthless against AIDS it directly harmed and killed people because it directly attacks both T-cells and the bone marrow.  Oh, incidentally, that same Dr. Fauci promised us an HIV/AIDS vaccine for more than 20 years.  Where is it?

These were not "mistakes" this time any more than it was the last time around; this was a willful and intentional refusal to fit whatever belief you come up with against known facts and, if the facts cannot be reasonably explained by your alleged means of transmission then what you're alleging is wrong.

Now we're being told there are going to be no schools, we "must wait" for a vaccine, we must wear a diaper on our face despite the fact that your underwear does not stop a fart and everyone farts an average of 15 times/day, we won't demand that people wash their damned hands with soap and water, especially in hospitality and health care environments, instead relying on BS "sanitizers" and we continue to cater to the REEEEEEing nutjobs who are egging all of it on.

There's not one lick of sense left in America nor any willingness to hold public officials accountable for their acts of destruction of both the economy and people.

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2020-07-09 19:01 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 2043 references
[Comments enabled]  

Fact: Sweden has had 74,333 confirmed cases

Fact: Sweden has had 5,500 deaths.

Fact: Sweden has approximately 10 million residents, with the largest number by far in and around Stockholm (~2.4 million..)

Fact: Sweden did not lock down anything, has not passed any mandatory mask ordinances or constrained the people.  Instead they told their citizens to act like adults, rather than allowing them to be infantile screaming children (as we did here in the US.)

Fact: The death rate in Sweden from Covid-19 has fallen to an effective zero.

Fact: The case rate in Sweden is also falling precipitously.  On a log chart the case rate is effectively flat.



That's impossible, for a virus with an R0 of 3.0, right?

I don't care what epidemiologists assert, or what anyone else asserts: It has happened.

When you eliminate whatever is not possible whatever is left must be true, no matter how much you'd prefer it not be.  Your task then becomes to determine why it is true.

We know from the CDC that somewhere "around" 10x as many people have had Covid as have tested positive.  This number is somewhat "fuzzy", but that's the CDC's (and everyone else's) "best guess", given the data we have.  Now, in the US, we're pushing people to get tested but we can't feed that test requirement on a reasonably expeditious basis; three months into this it is taking multiple days to get results back.  Therefore the number of alleged "positives" is not only fanciful it's outright garbage.  RT-PCR tests are unreliable to start with; they have a material false positive rate.  But if you won't test people on a systematic and unchanged basis from a symptom (or not) predicate then the data you generate wobbles around and is worthless.  

I've detected a number of these anomalies in the data here, and in the early days I called bull**** on the Wuhan data for the same reason -- China was clearly changing the terms to get tested although I couldn't prove it, because I'm not there.  I don't need to prove it; a virus does not "magically" infect people on a step-function basis.  Over a large population that does not happen so when it does you've got a data discontinuity -- that is, what you have is junk.

But it's very hard to not count bodies.

People get mad if you don't count them -- or try to count them twice.

Sweden has had 5,500 deaths.  They have 10 million people in their population.  That's a death rate from this bug of of one in 1,800, with virtually all of them being old and co-morbid individuals.

To put in percentage terms it's a rate of 0.06% in the population.

Or, if you prefer, since we have about 330 million citizens, about 33 times that is 181,000 deaths in the US.


We're at 125,590 total today.

That's because we spread it out, but didn't change a thing.  Ultimately, we'll wind up about where they are.

I remind you that yesterday their total was one death.


For them, it's over.

For us, it's nearly over.

We're three, maybe four week behind them if we quit dicking around.

How is this possible?

Because we are counting only "positives" that result in serious disease (as were they) and there is a serious amount of pre-existing immunity in the population, which exactly none of the models or any of the so-called "experts" said there was, and in fact today they they say there isn't.

Yes there is.

We knew this.

We knew it was a fact.

We knew it in early March.

We knew it within a week after Diamond Princess disembarked, when one person in a 2-person cabin got it, and the other did not.

They were  not just asymptomatic, as we tested them -- they never got the disease at all.

That's impossible, unless they were immune.




We don't know what bug caused them to be immune, but they are.

And thus nobody knows who is immune and who is not, but the fact that a huge percentage of the population either will not have any symptoms at all or won't get the virus at all is known.

That's scientific FACT.

Now recompute your "models" for what we know is herd suppression in Sweden among those who will care if they get the bug -- that is, those who will die.

Nobody gives a wet crap about someone who gets it and doesn't get sick.


Being RT-PCR positive for a virus DOES NOT, legally, medically or otherwise make you diseased.

You're only diseased if a disorder in your body is produced.

In a healthy human adult man there are approximately 39 trillion bacteria.  Right now.  You expel some ten trillion when you take a crap, but they recover -- and quite quickly too.  By the next day they're all there again and the band plays on!

If none of them produce a disorder in your body you are not diseased.

If you "get" Covid-19 but do not have a disorder as a result you are not diseased.

It does not matter if you can "pass it on"; you shed many millions of bacteria and viruses from your hands, mouth, nose and ******* every single day.  Most of the ones on your hands came from one of your other orifices, or someone else's orifices, or from some other organism who left them for you on a surface somewhere, or which were floating around in the air.

So what?

Folks, we're being stupid here.  You're hiding under your desk when five to ten trillion bacteria are in your body right ****ing now and virons typically outnumber bacteria ten to one in nature so it's probable there are 100 trillion virus particles in your body!

It's entirely reasonable to believe that one crap from an average human may expel ten or more trillion virons.

And virtually all of them will be replaced within the next 12-24 hours before you take the next crap.


May I note that IPV, used for polio (you know, the shot you get?) does not stop you from getting it?  In fact you probably did -- and do -- get it.

Oh, you didn't know that?


The IPV stops you from getting diseased.  That is, having a disorder as a result of exposure.  How do we know this?  Because if you have taken IPV you may still get colonized and expel polio virus -- live virus -- in your feces.

Do you know why they give you oral (live) polio vaccine in the third world?  There are a fair number of unvaccinated people and OPV will reduce the shedding from your feces -- since you take it in and the immune reaction is centered in your digestive system -- to an effective zero.  IPV does not do that because it's a shot in your arm.

Would we count you as a "polio case" if you had it in your feces but never got sick?


Guess what?  That's a scam, it's a lie, and you had ****ing better wake up and make them stop this ****.


If you have no disorder in your body you are not diseased.


No other definition makes any sense given that if I go take a **** right now I expel trillions of viable viruses and trillions more of viable bacteria.  I, you, and everyone else expel and shed virus and bacteria all the damn time, every single day.

Only illness matters.

And, in the end, only all-cause death matters.

Which, in the US, is now below baseline.


There is no longer a threat in the United States. Indeed with all-cause death now below baseline it is quite probable that by the end of the year there will be no excess death at all, statistically speaking.

Yes, people have and will die.

People die every day.

But the rate of death is below baseline for this time of year.

Dead is dead, why doesn't matter.  How much virus I have, or which virus, doesn't matter unless that specific virus makes me ill.

That specific virus out of the trillions of virus particles that are in my body right now, and in yours, and in everyone else's.

These are facts.

You can take your hysteria -- and your masks -- and shove 'em up your ass.


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2020-07-04 14:10 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 2204 references
[Comments enabled]  

Let's look at physics and mathematics folks.

We'll start with a single cough or sneeze.

Everyone "knows" that if you cover a cough or sneeze, and you should do it into your sleeve instead of your hand, this will reduce the risk of someone else getting a virus you may have, right?


It doesn't.  So says the science!  This is a myth, just like it is a myth that you can wear a mask and reduce transmission.

Wait -- you say!  YUCK; that's obvious that it helps.

Well, no.

Here's why.

You sneeze and a huge loogie comes out your nose.  Yuck!  Nasty!  Mucus, full of germs.

It goes, if uncovered...... downward, on the floor.

And harms nobody.

It's disgusting, but that's it.  You should still do it anyway because it's disgusting not to, but you won't stop a virus by doing so.

What?  If I stop the loogie then how come that doesn't do anything?

Because in addition to the loogie out come a bunch of large drops, each also laden with virus.  Maybe a few hundred drops.  Yuck!  Thus covering or physically blocking those will reduce transmission to other people, right?

Wrong again, statistically speaking.


Because in that same forceful exhale are an enormous number of sub-micron water droplets that are formed as the saturated vapor in your lungs (100% RH in expired air) cools slightly as it travels up from the lungs to the trachea and out the mouth or nose and comes into contact with the ambient air (well, unless it's over 98.6F in the air where you are anyway!)

Remember your basic physics:  As any saturated vapor cools it condenses.  Any saturated vapor that cools by even a tiny amount will condense -- that is, coalesce the individual vapor molecules into larger aggregates.

Ordinary "tidal volume" (that is, the amount of air you move in a resting condition with each inhalation) is about 500ml.  For a cough or sneeze it is much larger; the maximum volume of air that can be inspired in adult human lungs typically is in the range of 4-6L, or eight to 12 times the "at rest" breathing amount.

When we breathe normally we produce very few or no large droplets.  When we sing, play a wind instrument, yell, scream, cough or sneeze we produce a fairly large number of them.

But none of this matters at all, statistically, because with each breath we produce millions of small condensate drops, and all of them which do not aggregate beyond the pore size of the medium in a mask will go right through said mask in either direction, most of those condensed molecules are produced between the lungs and either before or just after exit from the body due to condensation of the 100% RH water vapor and each of them individually, if you are infected with a virus, can carry enough virons to infect another person.

We've all "seen our breath" outside when it's cold.

That's aggregation and condensation to a great enough degree that the aggregates are visible; there are thousands to millions more said aggregates that are too small to see and when it's not cold outside none of them aggregate and condense sufficiently to be visible but they are all still there.

Note that during ordinary breathing the mean particle size is sub-micron.  Statistically none of these are filtered in either direction by anything less than an N95.

This is why physics says that masks don't work against viruses and exactly zero RCTs show that they do.

Never mind the repeated attempts to mandate masks in 1918 which did nothing to prevent the spread.  Of course the revisionism of today says "well it's because people didn't adhere to it."  Sure, there were people who put up the middle finger; after all, they threw people in jail for refusing -- but the facts are that nearly everyone complied.

Every single person that has ever "seen their breath" in the winter months knows, if they think about it for 30 seconds, why masks can't work and don't.

They can't work because blocking 1,000 pretty-large droplets sounds like it's great except hundreds of thousands or even millions of condensed water vapor molecule clusters were also expelled, they have enough virons on them to infect another person and very nearly zero of those are caught by the mask in either direction.  The ones you see when you breathe out in the winter are >50um in size (the limit of visibility to the unaided eye); more than 50 times the size of the mean particle you actually exhale.  Worse, every one of those tiny particles, unless condensed out or breathed in by someone else can remain in the air for hours since they are small enough to remain within the purview of brownian motion of air molecules; that is, they "float" so to speak because the energy of said molecular vibration and ordinary air currents, even indoors, is large compared to the pull of gravity toward the ground and thus they remain suspended in the air.

The reason we have a flu season, as I've noted, is that the higher the absolute humidity, which tracks with temperature, the greater the odds that further agglomeration of these clusters of molecules will occur and once they get large enough gravity takes over as they are too heavy and they fall to the ground harmlessly.

So your mask stopped the nasty-looking and smelling loogie which can infect exactly one person, unless you wipe it around on people, and 1,000 of the 5,000 modest-size droplets you expelled. This is why the mask gets nasty all over the inside (which, by the way, if left on for any length of time or reused will breed bacteria on the inside surface which you can inhale, and it will be very bad for you if you do so.)

But it's worthless in terms of protecting anyone else because at the same time you expelled the 5,001 droplets and stopped 1,001, which sounds like a decent hazard reduction, you also expelled anywhere from thousands to several million micrometer-size drops, an effective none of which were stopped, all of which are infectious, and thus you actually caught materially less than 1% of the potential infections that can screw someone else!

1% is not statistically significant.  Filtering out 0.1-1% of the infectious events out at the source DOES NOTHING.

The reason workers in a virus lab wear moon suits, go through multiple e sets of sealed doors with decontamination procedures before that suit is removed and breathe pressurized outside air while inside the lab is that these are facts and said virus -- any virus -- will go right through any "mask."

Then there is an often-cited NIH review that claims that masks "might" work.  Well, that depends on the mask.  If you read the actual study you'll find that there is a RCT (again, the gold standard for medical science) that found that cloth masks increased transmission -- in other words, they were worse than the control group that was wearing nothing!  That study found N95s to be effective (no surprise) and that surgical masks might be, but non-medical masks aren't part of the debate -- and yet that, and cloth, are what we're talking about here in the general public.  That same review also noted that coronaviruses appear to be preferentially emitted in aerosols as opposed to droplets, which instantly destroys the argument for source control since anything that does not have a high quality seal and fit will pass nearly all of your aerosol (as opposed to larger droplets) right out into the space around you.

Oh, and don't run any bull**** about "oh it's only so-called droplets" nonsense in terms of being specific to Covid19 either.  That's another common claim but there's zero scientific evidence for that.  I'm not the only one who's noticed this -- there's a group of 239 scientists who signed a letter to the WHO.  Not that they should have needed to; unless you're a mouth-breathing idiot the early outbreak in an apartment building at Wuhan and another in Hong Kong where there were no plumbing traps and thus gas (aerosol) from people's scat was getting into other people's apartments and the outbreak occurred across floors in units where the individuals had no reasonable possibility of personal or droplet contact along with the choir group that took all manner of reasonable precaution yet got infected anyway all make clear that in fact the so-called "large drop only" theory is nonsense.  It not only has no basis given the spread we have observed it has no basis in physics either.

Never mind what appears to be one very-well researched and run down super-spread event in Germany -- in a meat-packing plant after compulsory mask-wearing was put into place for employees.  The masks were worthless; a huge number of people were infected and they were able to trace the index case too because of a fortuitous mutation that allowed them to sequence the RNA and prove it.  That put the final nail in the coffin of those who claimed this is not an "aerosol" (whether originating from feces or out your respiratory tract) disease.

Further, as I've repeatedly noted, that Covid-19 isn't following the laws of physics on the agglomeration that occurs with absolute humidity is very strong evidence (but not proof), again on the science, that it is in large part not being transmitted through the air but rather by contact with contaminated surfaces and since we know intact virus is found in feces fecal contamination is very likely involved (exactly as it is with polio, which also didn't follow the laws of physics on aerosol or droplet transmission because it wasn't, in the main, transmitted that way.)  A mask does nothing to prevent "fomite" (item-based) transmission whatsoever nor does it work as source control for feces, obviously.  In fact wearing a mask may make transmission materially more-likely if the mask is not taken from a clean, sterile container only after you have washed your hands, is then put on, and once removed you immediately wash your hands and do not re-use the mask until and unless it has been sterilized.  This, of course, is impossible if you are out in the public and desire to eat or drink something.  As soon as you do contamination of yourself and others, if there is contamination on your mask, is assured.  In short a mask is a filter and thus concentrates whatever is in the environment on its two surfaces; on the interior from what you exhale and on the exterior from the environment around you.  Once a mask is worn, even for a few minutes, it is biologically dangerous both to you and others and becomes more dangerous the longer you have it on.  Without proper protocol you are more likely to infect yourself or others if pathogens are present than protect anyone at all and that protocol is utterly impossible to follow in general public life.

This has been noted in the literature; this article is often cited as "supporting" community mask mandates.  If you actually read it it does no such thing because of exactly what I've noted above:

Taking a mask off is a high-risk process (34) because pathogens may be present on the outer surface of the mask and may result in self-contamination during removal (31).

If your position on "masks" is really one that includes closing all places where food and/or beverages of any sort are consumed on-premise, along with the banning of consumption of food or beverages in public where by definition you will not be able to follow good protocol with a mask to limit cross-contamination of others and self-infection then just say so and be done with it.  Those arguing for mask orders in the public in fact are arguing for a complete and permanent lockdown except to go get groceries or take a trip to the hospital; they must be forced to come clean as to their actual intent.  So long as any firm can remain in operation that permits or serves food or beverages of any sort for on-premise consumption masks are likely to increase infection rates because from an epidemiological point of view once used they are exactly identical to used toilet paper in terms of infection risk and if you put a used one on a table or bar you just contaminated that surface.  Once you put a used one back on your face without first sterilizing it you have just contaminated yourself.

We have known all of this since February, as I have documented.

Physics is not a list of suggestions folks.

It is a list of natural laws that nobody can violate.

Masks are worthless when it comes to viral transmission by aerosol and in addition they are obviously also worthless against transmission that occurs due to contact with contaminated surfaces or objects.  That's the physics of it and nobody has ever demonstrated an ability to modify the laws of physics.  Only an N95 (or better) can attenuate to any meaningful degree viruses in exhaled or inhaled breath simply because virus particles and the water vapor particles that carry them are small enough to pass right through anything less.  It is like trying to stop mosquitoes with a chain-link fence.  I'm sure you get a few, but not enough to matter.

Grow up, deal with the fact that masks are worthless, learn to live with the fact that this virus will not be responsive to voodoo or magical incantations by governors, mayors or anyone else.  Manual removal of potential contamination from your hands by washing with soap and water will help, but there is no guarantee because as we know this virus can spread through multiple vectors.  The sooner those who are not significantly harmed by this virus get it and thus inhibit transmission the sooner it will be equivalent in its impact to seasonal flu or less.

There is no other reality folks, and for reasons I've explained before a vaccine is unlikely to work either.  Don't get your hopes up for that as you are very likely to be disappointed.

If this nation cannot face the realities of physics then we are back to the persecution of Galileo and the burning of "witches" at Salem.  There is utterly no point in my, or any other thinking person's continued engagement on any matter of economics, politics, public health or other policy if that is to be the regression of intelligence and logic among the people of this nation as what was America is doomed to collapse back into the Dark Ages.

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