The Market Ticker
Commentary on The Capital Markets
Logging in or registering will improve your experience here
Main Navigation
MUST-READ Selection(s):
Make Me Move

Display list of topics

Sarah's Resources You Should See
Sarah's Blog Buy Sarah's Pictures
Full-Text Search & Archives
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

2018-04-26 12:40 by Karl Denninger
in POTD , 35 references
 

 

Email kairia.rocks@gmail.com today to have this on your wall tomorrow; mixed-media on canvas, ready to hang and enjoy!

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 



2018-04-26 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 96 references
[Comments enabled]  

Ah, here we are again.

But Reinking had exhibited erratic behavior for years before the shooting. Darlene Sustrich, who co-owns a Colorado crane company where Reinking once worked, said they got a call from the FBI after he allegedly tried to jump the White House fence last July.

"We told them, 'Hang onto him if you can. Help him if you can,'" Sustrich said.

Federal officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Of course they didn't respond.  Nor will they.

Then there's this:

“Anyone who can’t be trusted with a gun can’t be trusted without a custodian.”

If proven violent persons are still truly dangerous, Robert J. Kukla made a brilliant observation in his 1973 classic “Gun Control,” equating their release from prison with opening the cage of a man-eating tiger and expecting a different result.

Exactly.

So where do people like Hogg and Gonzalez get their talking points from?  They are both factually insane as they promote the impossible; this puts them in the exact same box as the jackwad that shot up the Waffle House.

He believed he was being stalked by celebrities and unknown other persons invading his personal space which is exactly identical to believing that someone who is dangerous will be deterred from committing an act of violence by banning, restricting or otherwise "controlling" things.

Both are paranoid delusions and that is the definition of mental illness.  Hogg, Gonzalez and more are lionized and yet they are exhibiting the classic symptoms of paranoid delusions and are insisting that mass-murder be undertaken to placate them.  That, standing alone, certainly appears to me to be a criminal offense, never mind being a direct violation of both Twatter's and Facesucker's terms of service.

Toronto just had this demonstrated in stark relief for anyone who bothers to pay attention.  Said jackwad was dangerous.  He didn't get a gun -- he didn't need one.  Instead he acquired a routine, every-day delivery van and used it to murder 10 people within seconds.

The item he used to commit mass-murder was both more-effective than a firearm and easier to acquire and use to commit the offense.

There are literally dozens of ways to commit mass-murder if you are hellbent on doing so and there's no effective means of doing anything about nearly all of them.  You can use a truck or SUV, a car, a gallon of gasoline, home-made explosives or poison gas generators (the latter being trivially easy to concoct from household items, the former not much harder) or even kitchen knives.  I have a Henckels kitchen knife set that is sharp enough to shave hairs and would be unbelievably deadly if used aggressively in a large packed crowd of people; you could trivially murder a half-dozen or more before anyone could jump and subdue you.  Concealing it wouldn't be hard either.

The best and in fact only option is to interdict people.  In these recent incidents law enforcement had plenty of warning and it's not supposition either.  That is, you can't realistically expect law enforcement, either on a Constitutional basis or any other, to willy-nilly arrest and prosecute people for non-crimes.  There has to be at least demonstrated criminal intent or, even better, prior criminal acts.

But in both the Parkland and Waffle House shootings there were.

Parkland's shooter put a gun to someone's head and threatened to kill them.  That's felony assault and, in Florida, since a firearm was involved it's a mandatory 10 year, serve every day offense.  The offense occurred long before the attack and was reported to the Sheriff's department which refused to arrest him.  There were also other interactions that were intentionally ignored but were a valid basis to involuntarily commit that jackwad to a mental facility, again, with plenty of warning before the fact -- months or even years ahead of time.

In the Waffle House case we have the same situation.  Here's a guy who brandished a firearm and threatened people with it at a former job.  That, again, is felony assault and again the Sheriff's office didn't arrest.  Again, had he been prosecuted he couldn't have committed murder as he would have been in prison.  We then had him try to invade the White House, he was arrested for that, and at this point both federal and state law enforcement knew he was severely mentally compromised, including suffering from paranoid delusions and owned guns.  The State could have, once again, held a hearing to involuntarily commit him and deliberately and intentionally failed to do so.

In both cases it was those intentional acts by law enforcement that were the reason said assailants were able to walk freely among us and commit their horrific crimes.  It was not the availability of firearms that made that possible.  Both in Parkland and at the Waffle House a delivery van or SUV would have been just as lethal if not more so, never mind a homemade arson, explosive or poison gas device -- or for that matter a big, sharp kitchen knife.

Yet utterly nobody -- other than myself -- has stood up and demanded that the so-called "law enforcement" agencies and individuals directly responsible through their willful and intentional refusal to arrest for what are outrageous prior felony acts of the accused that they are fully aware of and have had every opportunity to do so be held to account and indicted as accessories before the fact and have to stand trial co-accused exactly as you would if you gave someone a ride to a bank knowing they had a gun, had no valid to have one while going to said bank, and they then used that gun to stick the place up and shot a teller.

Sharpton has a relative who is standing trial for capital murder in Alabama for exactly this set of actions.  He did not shoot, he did not possess a weapon, but he knew damn well that the person who did shoot was dangerous and he furthered the offense.  That individual is going to go to trial and properly so for his actions.

So where are the indictments against Sheriff Israel for Parkland and all the Sheriffs and others who similarly refused to arrest the Waffle House shooter?

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 

2018-04-25 14:02 by Karl Denninger
in POTD , 105 references
 

There be monsters in there..... just hit the "buy" button Cramer says, it'll all be ok....

 

Email kairia.rocks@gmail.com now to make this yours; you'll want to frame it for display.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 

2018-04-25 11:27 by Karl Denninger
in Market Musings , 174 references
[Comments enabled]  

This mornings stupid comes courtesy of a clownface with a nice bridge in the background -- the former Wells ****ed-You CEO.

The bridge goes nowhere.

The problem with markets today is that virtually everyone argues that corporations taking on lots of longer-term debt during the suppressed rate environment is good -- indeed, good bordering on God-like.

Nonsense.

Go read this again.  The problem isn't with the "taking of the debt", it's what happens when rates rise -- or even refuse to fall further.  As I've repeatedly pointed out and in fact made a central point of my book Leveragesuch market distortions encourage and in fact almost mandate psychotic behavior by corporations and governments.

Specifically the only way to "keep up with the Joneses" is not to refinance your debt to a lower interest rate and enjoy the lower coupon payment but rather to add as much debt as you can while holding the coupon payment constant.  So if you borrowed $1 million with the rate of interest at 5% and the rate drops to 1% you will not take the opportunity to refinance the $1 million and pay 1/5th the coupon -- you will instead borrow another $4 million, which means your operating leverage is now 500% of what it was before.

This behavior inevitably bankrupts you -- doing that is both psychotic and criminally insane.

What caused the housing blowup was mass-attempts to do this by individuals, egged on by the banksters, Wall Street and the shiny new Mercedes that magically appeared in the driveway of your next-door neighbor.  Millions of Americans took their home, refinanced but instead of using that refinance to lower their payment they instead used it to extract as much more money as they could while holding the payment constant.  What they ignored was that their means of doing this was not long-term stable -- they were dependent on a rollover of the note that they took due to some "teaser rate" or feature that caused the coupon to reset.

When it reset and they weren't able to roll over the debt again on even-better terms they were instantly bankrupted as they had spent the money they borrowed, couldn't raise the difference to pay off the "extra" borrowing, and also couldn't afford the coupon at the higher rate.

A permutation of this is exactly what set off the Tech Crash.  I can tell you this with specificity because I saw it multiple times with vendors of various services and products.  The poster child from my time running an ISP was in the DSL marketplace where three separate firms came into my office trying to "partner" with us.  Every single one of them was building out their networks using cheap financing from Wall Street - most of it equity raises, but some in debt.  The problem with their model was that they were cash-flow negative and so eventually the price of the next equity or debt raise would go up instead of down and they were utterly reliant on being able to do the next one on comparable or better terms as they had no ability to redeem any of the outstanding rounds; the money was gone.  I threw all three of them out of my office because I knew that when they detonated the company that would get blamed when our customers lines went dead was MCSNet and that had a decent chance, if we had converted any material percentage of our customers to their services, of killing us at the same time.

When the market got a whiff of that "business model" being the only thing that kept these firms afloat they, and the market, both crashed.  All three of those firms ultimately blew up.

In 2008 when the market got a whiff of that being all that was powering the housing market it, and the market, both crashed.

Central Banks and our Federal Government, instead of allowing the market to clear that out in 2008 and 2009 promoted and explicitly supported more of it as a means of "rescuing" the economy.  That's what everyone did.  Literally everyone, from big business to small, from households (especially student loans and cars this time around) to governments that intentionally underfunded pensions and on top of doing that they sat back and allowed insanely illegal practices in the medical system that are driving those pension costs higher.  Never mind the pure insanity of allowing people to "game" pensions through things like "bonusing" in overtime or even double-dipping, resulting in them getting two or more pensions!

The limits of this game have been reached.  Trump knows ******n well what happens when you hit that wall as he nearly went personally bankrupt from doing it himself and several of his projects have blown up this way.  Those blow-ups almost always happen with very little warning although the eventual outcome is something you can determine years or even decades in advance because once you take on the debt and drive coupon as your means of "success" the outcome is certain.

We merely argue over when, not what.

View this entry with comments (opens new window)
 

2018-04-25 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Interviews , 80 references
[Comments enabled]  

Come and get it folks!

Ed: Temporarily removed -- the editors agreed with me when I flagged quality problems, are fixing them, and I will re-insert it when the new version is re-uploaded here.

Please be patient.

 

View this entry with comments (opens new window)